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Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production.

ABSTRACT: Drylands cover 41% of Earth's surface and are the largest source of interannual variability in the global carbon sink. Drylands are projected to experience accelerated expansion over the next century, but the implications of this expansion on variability in gross primary production (GPP) remain elusive. Here we show that by 2100 total dryland GPP will increase by 12 ± 3% relative to the 2000-2014 baseline. Because drylands will largely expand into formerly productive ecosystems, this increase in dryland GPP may not increase global GPP. Further, GPP per unit dryland area will decrease as degradation of historical drylands outpaces the higher GPP of expanded drylands. Dryland expansion and climate-induced conversions among sub-humid, semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid subtypes will lead to substantial changes in regional and subtype contributions to global dryland GPP variability. Our results highlight the vulnerability of dryland subtypes to more frequent and severe climate extremes and suggest that regional variations will require different mitigation strategies.

SUBMITTER: Yao J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7125214 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production.

Yao Jingyu J Liu Heping H Huang Jianping J Gao Zhongming Z Wang Guoyin G Li Dan D Yu Haipeng H Chen Xingyuan X

Nature communications 20200403 1

Drylands cover 41% of Earth's surface and are the largest source of interannual variability in the global carbon sink. Drylands are projected to experience accelerated expansion over the next century, but the implications of this expansion on variability in gross primary production (GPP) remain elusive. Here we show that by 2100 total dryland GPP will increase by 12 ± 3% relative to the 2000-2014 baseline. Because drylands will largely expand into formerly productive ecosystems, this increase in ...[more]

PMID: 32246032

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Project description:Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13 C) in C3 woody plants is a key variable for the study of photosynthesis. Yet how Δ13 C varies at decadal scales, and across regions, and how it is related to gross primary production (GPP), are still incompletely understood. Here we address these questions by implementing a new Δ13 C modelling capability in the land-surface model JULES incorporating both photorespiratory and mesophyll-conductance fractionations. We test the ability of four leaf-internal CO2 concentration models embedded in JULES to reproduce leaf and tree-ring (TR) carbon isotopic data. We show that all the tested models tend to overestimate average Δ13 C values, and to underestimate interannual variability in Δ13 C. This is likely because they ignore the effects of soil water stress on stomatal behavior. Variations in post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations across species, sites and years, may also partly explain the discrepancies between predicted and TR-derived Δ13 C values. Nonetheless, the "least-cost" (Prentice) model shows the lowest biases with the isotopic measurements, and lead to improved predictions of canopy-level carbon and water fluxes. Overall, modelled Δ13 C trends vary strongly between regions during the recent (1979-2016) historical period but stay nearly constant when averaged over the globe. Photorespiratory and mesophyll effects modulate the simulated global Δ13 C trend by 0.0015 ± 0.005‰ and -0.0006 ± 0.001‰ ppm-1 , respectively. These predictions contrast with previous findings based on atmospheric carbon isotope measurements. Predicted Δ13 C and GPP tend to be negatively correlated in wet-humid and cold regions, and in tropical African forests, but positively related elsewhere. The negative correlation between Δ13 C and GPP is partly due to the strong dominant influences of temperature on GPP and vapor pressure deficit on Δ13 C in those forests. Our results demonstrate that the combined analysis of Δ13 C and GPP can help understand the drivers of photosynthesis changes in different climatic regions.

Dataset Information

Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production.

Publications

Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production.

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