Dataset Information

Modeling monthly flows of global air travel passengers: An open-access data resource.

ABSTRACT: The global flow of air travel passengers varies over time and space, but analyses of these dynamics and their integration into applications in the fields of economics, epidemiology and migration, for example, have been constrained by a lack of data, given that air passenger flow data are often difficult and expensive to obtain. Here, these dynamics are modeled at a monthly scale to provide an open-access spatio-temporally resolved data source for research purposes (www.vbd-air.com/data). By refining an annual-scale model of Huang et al. (2013), we developed a set of Poisson regression models to predict monthly passenger volumes between directly connected airports during 2010. The models not only performed well in the United States with an overall accuracy of 93%, but also showed a reasonable confidence in estimating air passenger volumes in other regions of the world. Using the model outcomes, this research studied the spatio-temporal dynamics in the world airline network (WAN) that previous analyses were unable to capture. Findings on the monthly variation of WAN offer new knowledge for dynamic planning and strategy design to address global issues, such as disease pandemics and climate change.

SUBMITTER: Mao L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7127637 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling monthly flows of global air travel passengers: An open-access data resource.

Mao Liang L Wu Xiao X Huang Zhuojie Z Tatem Andrew J AJ

Journal of transport geography 20150901

The global flow of air travel passengers varies over time and space, but analyses of these dynamics and their integration into applications in the fields of economics, epidemiology and migration, for example, have been constrained by a lack of data, given that air passenger flow data are often difficult and expensive to obtain. Here, these dynamics are modeled at a monthly scale to provide an open-access spatio-temporally resolved data source for research purposes (www.vbd-air.com/data). By refi ...[more]

PMID: 32288373

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Project description:Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow of air passengers connects each Plasmodium falciparum- and Plasmodium vivax-endemic region to the rest of the world.Recently constructed global P. falciparum and P.vivax malaria risk maps, along with data on flight schedules and modelled passenger flows across the air network, were combined to describe and quantify global malaria connectivity through air travel. Network analysis approaches were then utilized to describe and quantify the patterns that exist in passenger flows weighted by malaria prevalence. Finally, the connectivity within and to the Southeast Asia region where the threat of imported artemisinin resistance arising is highest, was examined to highlight risk routes for its spread.The analyses demonstrate the substantial connectivity that now exists between and from malaria-endemic regions through air travel. While the air network provides connections to previously isolated malarious regions, it is clear that great variations exist, with significant regional communities of airports connected by higher rates of flow standing out. The structures of these communities are often not geographically coherent, with historical, economic and cultural ties evident, and variations between P. falciparum and P. vivax clear. Moreover, results highlight how well connected the malaria-endemic areas of Africa are now to Southeast Asia, illustrating the many possible routes that artemisinin-resistant strains could take.The continuing growth in air travel is playing an important role in the global epidemiology of malaria, with the endemic world becoming increasingly connected to both malaria-free areas and other endemic regions. The research presented here provides an initial effort to quantify and analyse the connectivity that exists across the malaria-endemic world through air travel, and provide a basic assessment of the risks it results in for movement of infections.

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Dataset Information

Modeling monthly flows of global air travel passengers: An open-access data resource.

Publications

Modeling monthly flows of global air travel passengers: An open-access data resource.

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