Dataset Information

Host susceptibility to MERS-CoV infection, a retrospective cohort study of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak.

ABSTRACT: To evaluate host susceptibility factors to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, we conducted a retrospective cohort study from the single largest exposure event of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak. A total of 175 patients were closely exposed to a super-spreader, 26 of which were infected (14.9%). In a multivariate analysis, history of autologous stem cell transplantation (HR, 31.151; 95% CI, 5.447-178.145; P < 0.001) and tachypnea at ED (HR, 4.392; 95% CI, 1.402-13.761; P = 0.011) were significantly associated with MERS-CoV infection.

SUBMITTER: Ko JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7129617 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Host susceptibility to MERS-CoV infection, a retrospective cohort study of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak.

Ko Jae-Hoon JH Seok Hyeri H Park Ga Eun GE Lee Ji Yeon JY Lee Ji Yong JY Cho Sun Young SY Ha Young Eun YE Kang Ji-Man JM Kim Yae-Jean YJ Kang Cheol-In CI Chung Doo Ryeon DR Song Jae-Hoon JH Peck Kyong Ran KR

Journal of infection and chemotherapy : official journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy 20171206 2

To evaluate host susceptibility factors to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, we conducted a retrospective cohort study from the single largest exposure event of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak. A total of 175 patients were closely exposed to a super-spreader, 26 of which were infected (14.9%). In a multivariate analysis, history of autologous stem cell transplantation (HR, 31.151; 95% CI, 5.447-178.145; P < 0.001) and tachypnea at ED (HR, 4.392; 95% CI, 1.402-13.76 ...[more]

PMID: 29223614

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Project description:Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.

Dataset Information

Host susceptibility to MERS-CoV infection, a retrospective cohort study of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak.

Publications

Host susceptibility to MERS-CoV infection, a retrospective cohort study of the 2015 Korean MERS outbreak.

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