Dataset Information

A prediction model of low back pain risk: a population based cohort study in Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its recurrence.

Methods

A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort enrolled from 2002 to 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

During median follow-up period of 8.4 years, there were 143,396 (32.9%) first onset LBP cases. The prediction model of first onset consisted of age, sex, income grade, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, blood pressure, and medical history of diseases. The model of 5-year recurrence risk was comprised of age, sex, income grade, BMI, length of prescription, and medical history of diseases. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.804-0.820) and 0.916 (95% CI, 0.907-0.924) in validation cohorts of LBP onset and recurrence models, respectively. Age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred the highest risk points for onset, whereas age, spondylolisthesis, and disc degeneration conferred the highest risk for recurrence.

Conclusions

LBP risk prediction models and simplified risk scores have been developed and validated using data from general medical practice. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation and updating of the models by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings, especially in this era of precision medicine.

SUBMITTER: Mukasa D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7136293 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A prediction model of low back pain risk: a population based cohort study in Korea.

Mukasa David D Sung Joohon J

The Korean journal of pain 20200401 2

<h4>Background</h4>Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its recurrence.<h4>Methods</h4>A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Co ...[more]

PMID: 32235016

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Project description:BackgroundMany studies on low back pain (LBP) have identified prognostic factors, but prediction models for use in secondary health care are not available. The purpose of this cohort study, based on a randomised clinical study, was to identify risk factors for unsuccessful return to work (U-RTW) in sick-listed LBP patients with or without radiculopathy and to validate a prediction model for U-RTW.Methods325 sick-listed LBP patients with or without radiculopathy were included in an intervention study and followed for one year. Afterwards, 117 other LBP patients were recruited similarly, included in a validation study and also followed for one year. All patients were subjected to identical procedures and interventions and received a brief intervention by the same rehabilitation doctor and physiotherapist. Half of them received case manager guidance within a multidisciplinary setting. At baseline, they completed a questionnaire and went through a clinical low-back examination. Sciatica was investigated by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). U-RTW was registered in a national database both initially and at 1-year.ResultsNeither initial U-RTW (24.0%) nor one-year U-RTW (38.2%) were statistically significantly different in the two intervention groups nor in patients with and without radiculopathy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified two clinical and five psychosocial baseline predictors for one-year U-RTW (primary outcome). The clinical predictors included pain score (back+leg pain) and side-flexion. The five psychosocial predictors included 'bodily distress' 'low expectations of RTW', 'blaming the work for pain', 'no home ownership' and 'drinking alcohol less than once/month'. These predictors were not statistically significantly different in patients with and without radiculopathy, and they also predicted initial U-RTW (secondary outcome). Obesity and older age were only supplementary predictors in patients with radiculopathy. A prediction model was established and tested in the validation study group. The model predicted one-year U-RWT in patients with intermediate and high risk, but only partially in patients with low risk. The model predicted all three risk categories in initial U-RTW.ConclusionsA prediction model combining baseline clinical and psychosocial risk factors predicted patients with low, intermediate and high risk for unsuccessful return to work, both initially and at 1-year.

Project description:ObjectiveIdentifying subgroups of low back pain (LBP) has the potential to improve prediction of clinical outcomes. Risk stratification is one such strategy that identifies similar characteristics indicative of a common clinical outcome trajectory. The purpose of this study was to determine if an empirically derived subgrouping approach based on physical impairment measures improves information provided from the STarT Back Tool (SBT).MethodsAt baseline in this secondary analysis of a cohort study, patients (N = 144) receiving physical therapy for LBP completed the SBT and tests (active lumbar flexion, extension, lateral bending, and passive straight-leg raise) from a validated physical impairment index. Clinical outcomes were assessed at 4 weeks and included the Numerical Pain Rating Scale and Oswestry Disability Index. Exploratory hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis identified empirically derived subgroups based on physical impairment measures. Independent samples t testing and chi-square analysis were used to assess baseline subgroup differences in demographic and clinical measures. Spearman rho correlation coefficient was used to assess baseline SBT risk and impairment subgroup relationships, and a 3-way mixed-model ANOVA was used to assessed SBT risk and impairment subgroup relationships with clinical outcomes at 4 weeks.ResultsTwo physical impairment-based subgroups emerged from cluster analysis: (1) low-risk impairment (n = 119, 81.5%), characterized by greater lumbar mobility; and (2) high-risk impairment (n = 25, 17.1%), characterized by less lumbar mobility. A weak, positive relationship was observed between baseline SBT risk and impairment subgroups (rs = .170). An impairment-by-SBT risk-by-time interaction effect was observed for Oswestry Disability Index scores but not for Numerical Pain Rating Scale scores at 4 weeks.ConclusionsPhysical impairment subgroups were not redundant with SBT risk categories and could improve prediction of 4-week LBP disability outcomes. Physical impairment subgroups did not improve the prediction of 4-week pain intensity scores.ImpactSubgroups based on physical impairment and psychosocial risk could lead to better prediction of LBP disability outcomes and eventually allow for treatment options tailored to physical and psychosocial risk.

Project description:Study designTwo-year, prospective cohort data from the Japan epidemiological research of occupation-related back pain study in urban settings were used for this analysis.ObjectiveTo examine the association between aggravated low back pain and psychosocial factors among Japanese workers with mild low back pain.Summary of background dataAlthough psychosocial factors are strongly indicated as yellow flags of low back pain (LBP) leading to disability, the association between aggravated LBP and psychosocial factors has not been well assessed in Japanese workers.MethodsAt baseline, 5,310 participants responded to a self-administered questionnaire including questions about individual characteristics, ergonomic work demands, and work-related psychosocial factors (response rate: 86.5%), with 3,811 respondents completing the 1-year follow-up questionnaire. The target outcome was aggravation of mild LBP into persistent LBP during the follow-up period. Incidence was calculated for the participants with mild LBP during the past year at baseline. Logistic regression was used to explore risk factors associated with persistent LBP.ResultsOf 1,675 participants who had mild LBP during the preceding year, 43 (2.6%) developed persistent LBP during the follow-up year. Multivariate analyses adjusted for individual factors and an ergonomic factor found statistically significant or almost significant associations of the following psychosocial factors with persistent LBP: interpersonal stress at work [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.96 and 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.00-3.82], job satisfaction (OR: 2.34, 95%CI: 1.21-4.54), depression (OR: 1.92, 95%CI: 1.00-3.69), somatic symptoms (OR: 2.78, 95%CI: 1.44-5.40), support from supervisors (OR: 2.01, 95%CI: 1.05-3.85), previous sick-leave due to LBP (OR: 1.94, 95%CI: 0.98-3.86) and family history of LBP with disability (OR: 1.98, 95%CI: 1.04-3.78).ConclusionsPsychosocial factors are important risk factors for persistent LBP in urban Japanese workers. It may be necessary to take psychosocial factors into account, along with physical work demands, to reduce LBP related disability.

Project description:ObjectivesTo estimate the prevalence of medical care-seeking among adults with low back pain (LBP) and to characterise and compare use of diagnostic procedures and medical management between primary and secondary care.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingData from the EpiReumaPt, a nationwide population-based study conducted in Portugal including a representative sample of non-institutionalised adults (n=10 661) stratified by administrative territorial units was analysed.ParticipantsIndividuals who self-reported history of LBP within the previous 12 months (n=6434) and sought medical care for this problem in the same period (n=2618).Outcome measuresPatients' self-reported diagnostic workup and management procedures performed by medical care for LBP collected through a structured questionnaire. Medical care procedures were stratified by level of care.ResultsThe prevalence of medical care-seeking for LBP was 38.0% (95% CI 35.9% to 40.1%). Primary care in isolation (45.3%) was the most sought level of care. Emergency departments (25.9%) and orthopaedics (19.4%) were the most sought secondary medical specialties. Several pathoanatomical diagnoses were used, supported by laboratory or imaging tests (91.1%). Disc herniation (20.4%) and osteoarthritis (19.7%) were the most frequent diagnoses, and X-ray (63.7%) was the most frequent diagnostic procedure self-reported by individuals. Most (75.1%) reported being treated for LBP: 80.4% with oral medication and 49.9% with injectables. The mean duration of pharmacological treatment was 104.24 (SD, 266.80) days. The use of pathoanatomical diagnoses, laboratory or imaging tests, and pharmacological treatments were generally more frequent for secondary care (p<0.05). Approximately one-quarter of individuals (24.5%) reported seeking care from additional healthcare providers, physiotherapists (66.9%) were the most frequent.ConclusionsMedical care for LBP is frequent and associated with high levels of pathoanatomical diagnoses, imaging and laboratory tests and pharmacological therapy in both primary and secondary care settings. Funding and delivery actions should be prioritised to assure appropriate care for LBP.

Project description:BackgroundLow back pain (LBP) is a long-term health condition with distinct clinical courses. Its characterization together with the identification of prognostic factors for a persistent LBP course may trigger the development of personalized interventions. This study aimed to investigate the courses of chronic LBP (CLBP), its cumulative impact, and the indicators for the persistence of pain.Material and methodsPatients with active CLBP from the EpiDoC, a population-based cohort study of a randomly recruited sample of 10.661 adults with prolonged follow-up, were considered. Pain, disability, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were assessed at three time-points over five years. According to their pain symptoms over time, participants were classified as having a persistent (pain at the baseline and at all the subsequent time-points) or a relapsing pain course (pain at the baseline and no pain at least in one of the subsequent time-points). A mixed ANOVA was used to compare mean differences within and between patients of distinct courses. Prognostic indicators for the persistent LBP course were modulated through logistic regression.ResultsAmong the 1.201 adults with active CLBP at baseline, 634 (52.8%) completed the three time-points of data collection: 400 (63.1%) had a persistent and 234 (36.9%) a relapsing course. Statistically significant interactions were found between the group and time on disability (F (2,1258) = 23.779, p<0.001) and HRQoL (F (2,1252) = 82.779, p<0.001). In the adjusted model, the persistent course was associated with the disability level (OR 1.86, CI95% 1.40-2.40, p<0.001), depressive symptoms (OR 1.96, CI95% 1.21-3.18, p = 0.007), female gender (OR 1.90, CI95% 1.26-2.87, p = 0.002) and having a manual job (OR 1.46, CI95% 1.02-2.10, p = 0.040).ConclusionIn the long-term, patients with CLBP may follow a persistent or relapsing course of pain. Being female, presenting depressive symptoms, having a manual job and higher disability at baseline predicts a persistent course of LBP.

Dataset Information

A prediction model of low back pain risk: a population based cohort study in Korea.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A prediction model of low back pain risk: a population based cohort study in Korea.

Similar Datasets

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