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International tuberculosis contact-tracing notifications in Germany: analysis of national data from 2010 to 2018 and implications for efficiency.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:International contact-tracing (CT) following exposure during long-distance air travel is resource-intensive, whereas evidence for risk of tuberculosis (TB) transmission during international travel is weak. In this study, we systematically analyzed the information from international requests for CT received at the national level in Germany in order to evaluate the continued utility of the current approach and to identify areas for improvement. METHODS:An anonymized archive of international CT notifications received by the Robert Koch Institute between 2010 and 2018 was searched for key parameters for data collection. A total of 31 parameters, such as characteristics of TB patients and their identified contacts, were extracted from each CT notification and collated into a dataset. Descriptive data analysis and trend analyses were performed to identify key characteristics of CT notifications, patients, and contacts over the years. RESULTS:192 CT notifications, each corresponding to a single TB index case, were included in the study, increasing from 12 in 2010 to 41 in 2018. The majority of notifications (N?=?130, 67.7%) concerned international air travel, followed by private contact (N?=?39, 20.3%) and work exposure (N?=?16, 8.3%). 159 (82.8%) patients had sputum smear results available, of which 147 (92.5%) were positive. Of 119 (62.0%) patients with drug susceptibility testing results, most (N?=?92, 77.3%) had pan-sensitive TB, followed by 15 (12.6%) with multi-drug resistant TB. 115 (59.9%) patients had information on infectiousness, of whom 99 (86.1%) were considered infectious during the exposure period. 7 (5.3%) patients travelled on long-distance flights despite a prior diagnosis of active TB. Of the 771 contact persons, 34 (4.4%) could not be reached for CT measures due to lack of contact information. CONCLUSION:The high variability in completeness of information contained within the international CT requests emphasizes the need for international standards for reporting of CT information. With the large proportion of TB patients reported to have travelled while being infectious in our study, we feel that raising awareness among patients and health professionals to detect TB early and prevent international long-distance travel during the infectious disease phase should be a cornerstone strategy to safeguard against possible transmission during international travel.

SUBMITTER: Glasauer S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7137477 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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International tuberculosis contact-tracing notifications in Germany: analysis of national data from 2010 to 2018 and implications for efficiency.

Glasauer Saskia S Kröger Stefan S Haas Walter W Perumal Nita N

BMC infectious diseases 20200406 1

<h4>Background</h4>International contact-tracing (CT) following exposure during long-distance air travel is resource-intensive, whereas evidence for risk of tuberculosis (TB) transmission during international travel is weak. In this study, we systematically analyzed the information from international requests for CT received at the national level in Germany in order to evaluate the continued utility of the current approach and to identify areas for improvement.<h4>Methods</h4>An anonymized archi ...[more]

PMID: 32252650

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Project description:Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

Project description:With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7-12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.

Project description:The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and hence better inform future public health policy.

Dataset Information

International tuberculosis contact-tracing notifications in Germany: analysis of national data from 2010 to 2018 and implications for efficiency.

Publications

International tuberculosis contact-tracing notifications in Germany: analysis of national data from 2010 to 2018 and implications for efficiency.

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