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Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement.

ABSTRACT: Dispersal ability is key to species persistence in times of environmental change. Assessing a species' vulnerability and response to anthropogenic changes is often performed using one of two methods: correlative approaches that infer dispersal potential based on traits, such as wingspan or an index of mobility derived from expert opinion, or a mechanistic modeling approach that extrapolates displacement rates from empirical data on short-term movements.Here, we compare and evaluate the success of the correlative and mechanistic approaches using a mechanistic random-walk model of butterfly movement that incorporates relationships between wingspan and sex-specific movement behaviors.The model was parameterized with new data collected on four species of butterfly in the south of England, and we observe how wingspan relates to flight speeds, turning angles, flight durations, and displacement rates.We show that flight speeds and turning angles correlate with wingspan but that to achieve good prediction of displacement even over 10 min the model must also include details of sex- and species-specific movement behaviors.We discuss what factors are likely to differentially motivate the sexes and how these could be included in mechanistic models of dispersal to improve their use in ecological forecasting.

SUBMITTER: Evans LC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7141018 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement.

Evans Luke C LC Sibly Richard M RM Thorbek Pernille P Sims Ian I Oliver Tom H TH Walters Richard J RJ

Ecology and evolution 20200306 7

Dispersal ability is key to species persistence in times of environmental change. Assessing a species' vulnerability and response to anthropogenic changes is often performed using one of two methods: correlative approaches that infer dispersal potential based on traits, such as wingspan or an index of mobility derived from expert opinion, or a mechanistic modeling approach that extrapolates displacement rates from empirical data on short-term movements.Here, we compare and evaluate the success o ...[more]

PMID: 32273981

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Project description:Epilepsy surgery is a clinical procedure that aims to remove the brain tissue responsible for the emergence of seizures, the epileptogenic zone (EZ). It is preceded by an evaluation to determine the brain tissue that must be resected. The identification of the seizure onset zone (SOZ) from intracranial EEG recordings stands as one of the key proxies for the EZ. In this study we used computational models of epilepsy to assess to what extent the SOZ may or may not represent the EZ. We considered a set of different synthetic networks (e.g., regular, small-world, random, and scale-free networks) to represent large-scale brain networks and a phenomenological network model of seizure generation. In the model, the SOZ was inferred from the seizure likelihood (SL), a measure of the propensity of single nodes to produce epileptiform dynamics, whilst a surgery corresponded to the removal of nodes and connections from the network. We used the concept of node ictogenicity (NI) to quantify the effectiveness of each node removal on reducing the network's propensity to generate seizures. This framework enabled us to systematically compare the SOZ and the seizure control achieved by each considered surgery. Specifically, we compared the distributions of SL and NI across different networks. We found that SL and NI were concordant when all nodes were similarly ictogenic, whereas when there was a small fraction of nodes with high NI, the SL was not specific at identifying these nodes. We further considered networks with heterogeneous node excitabilities, i.e., nodes with different susceptibilities of being engaged in seizure activity, to understand how such heterogeneity may affect the relationship between SL and NI. We found that while SL and NI are concordant when there is a small fraction of hyper-excitable nodes in a network that is otherwise homogeneous, they do diverge if the network is heterogeneous, such as in scale-free networks. We observe that SL is highly dependent on node excitabilities, whilst the effect of surgical resections as revealed by NI is mostly determined by network structure. Together our results suggest that the SOZ is not always a good marker of the EZ.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the factors influencing movement is essential to forecasting species persistence in a changing environment. Movement is often studied using mechanistic models, extrapolating short-term observations of individuals to longer-term predictions, but the role of weather variables such as air temperature and solar radiation, key determinants of ectotherm activity, are generally neglected. We aim to show how the effects of weather can be incorporated into individual-based models of butterfly movement thus allowing analysis of their effects.MethodsWe constructed a mechanistic movement model and calibrated it with high precision movement data on a widely studied species of butterfly, the meadow brown (Maniola jurtina), collected over a 21-week period at four sites in southern England. Day time temperatures during the study ranged from 14.5 to 31.5 °C and solar radiation from heavy cloud to bright sunshine. The effects of weather are integrated into the individual-based model through weather-dependent scaling of parametric distributions representing key behaviours: the durations of flight and periods of inactivity.ResultsFlight speed was unaffected by weather, time between successive flights increased as solar radiation decreased, and flight duration showed a unimodal response to air temperature that peaked between approximately 23 °C and 26 °C. After validation, the model demonstrated that weather alone can produce a more than two-fold difference in predicted weekly displacement.ConclusionsIndividual Based models provide a useful framework for integrating the effect of weather into movement models. By including weather effects we are able to explain a two-fold difference in movement rate of M. jurtina consistent with inter-annual variation in dispersal measured in population studies. Climate change for the studied populations is expected to decrease activity and dispersal rates since these butterflies already operate close to their thermal optimum.

Project description:IntroductionTrait mindfulness refers to one's disposition or tendency to pay attention to their experiences in the present moment, in a non-judgmental and accepting way. Trait mindfulness has been robustly associated with positive mental health outcomes, but its neural underpinnings are poorly understood. Prior resting-state fMRI studies have associated trait mindfulness with within- and between-network connectivity of the default-mode (DMN), fronto-parietal (FPN), and salience networks. However, it is unclear how generalizable the findings are, how they relate to different components of trait mindfulness, and how other networks and brain areas may be involved.MethodsTo address these gaps, we conducted the largest resting-state fMRI study of trait mindfulness to-date, consisting of a pre-registered connectome predictive modeling analysis in 367 adults across three samples collected at different sites.ResultsIn the model-training dataset, we did not find connections that predicted overall trait mindfulness, but we identified neural models of two mindfulness subscales, Acting with Awareness and Non-judging. Models included both positive networks (sets of pairwise connections that positively predicted mindfulness with increasing connectivity) and negative networks, which showed the inverse relationship. The Acting with Awareness and Non-judging positive network models showed distinct network representations involving FPN and DMN, respectively. The negative network models, which overlapped significantly across subscales, involved connections across the whole brain with prominent involvement of somatomotor, visual and DMN networks. Only the negative networks generalized to predict subscale scores out-of-sample, and not across both test datasets. Predictions from both models were also negatively correlated with predictions from a well-established mind-wandering connectome model.ConclusionsWe present preliminary neural evidence for a generalizable connectivity models of trait mindfulness based on specific affective and cognitive facets. However, the incomplete generalization of the models across all sites and scanners, limited stability of the models, as well as the substantial overlap between the models, underscores the difficulty of finding robust brain markers of mindfulness facets.

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Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement.

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Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement.

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