The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Corcuera Hotz I
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7142952 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesFollowing the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the subsequent global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), health systems and the populations who use them have faced unprecedented challenges. We aimed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the uptake of hospital-based care at a national level.DesignThe study period (weeks ending 5 January to 28 June 2020) encompassed the pandemic announcement by the World Health Organization and the initiation of the UK lockdown. We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impact of these events on hospital services at a national level and across demographics, clinical specialties and National Health Service Health Boards.SettingScotland, UK.ParticipantsPatients receiving hospital care from National Health Service Scotland.Main outcome measuresAccident and emergency (A&E) attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions measured using the relative change of weekly counts in 2020 to the averaged counts for equivalent weeks in 2018 and 2019.ResultsBefore the pandemic announcement, the uptake of hospital care was largely consistent with historical levels. This was followed by sharp drops in all outcomes until UK lockdown, where activity began to steadily increase. This time-period saw an average reduction of -40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -47.7 to -33.7) in A&E attendances, -25.8% (95% CI: -31.1 to -20.4) in emergency hospital admissions and -60.9% (95% CI: -66.1 to -55.7) in planned hospital admissions, in comparison to the 2018-2019 averages. All subgroup trends were broadly consistent within outcomes, but with notable variations across age groups, specialties and geography.ConclusionsCOVID-19 has had a profoundly disruptive impact on hospital-based care across National Health Service Scotland. This has likely led to an adverse effect on non-COVID-19-related illnesses, increasing the possibility of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality. Further research is required to elucidate these impacts.
| S-EPMC7686524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is limited understanding of the drivers of increasing infant accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and emergency hospital admissions across England. We examine variations in use of emergency hospital services among infants by local areas in England and investigate the extent to which infant and socio-economic factors explain these variations.MethodsBirth cohort study using linked administrative Hospital Episode Statistics data in England. Singleton live births between 1-April-2012 and 31-March-2019 were followed up for 1 year; from 1-April-2013 (from the discharge date of their birth admission) until their first birthday, death or 31-March-2019. Mixed effects negative binomial models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios for A&E attendances and emergency admissions and mixed effects logistic regression models estimated odds ratio of conversion (the proportion of infants subsequently admitted after attending A&E). Models were adjusted for individual-level factors and included a random effect for local authority (LA).ResultsThe cohort comprised 3,665,414 births in 150 English LAs. Rates of A&E attendances and emergency admissions were highest amongst: infants born < 32 weeks gestation; with presence of congenital anomaly; and to mothers < 20-years-old. Area-level deprivation was positively associated with A&E attendance rates, but not associated with conversion probability. A&E attendance rates were highest in the North East (916 per 1000 child-years, 95%CI: 911 to 921) and London (876 per 1000, 95%CI: 874 to 879), yet London had the lowest emergency admission rates (232 per 1000, 95%CI: 231 to 234) and conversion probability (25% vs 39% in South West). Adjusting for individual-level factors did not significantly affect variability in A&E attendance and emergency admission rates by local authority.ConclusionsDrivers of A&E attendances and emergency admissions include individual-level factors such being born premature, with congenital anomaly and from socio-economically disadvantaged young parent families. Support for such vulnerable infants and families should be provided alongside preventative health care in primary and community care settings. The impact of these services requires further investigation. Substantial geographical variations in rates were not explained by individual-level factors. This suggests more detailed understanding of local and underlying service-level factors would provide targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.
| S-EPMC9302562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn July 2013, an extended heat episode with extreme high temperature covered Pudong New Area, the largest district in Shanghai. The current study estimates the impacts of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits (EDV) and emergency ambulance dispatches (EAD) using time-series approaches in Pudong, from 2011 to 2013.MethodsAn over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine the association between temperature and EDV and EAD. Heat wave effects with different heat wave definitions considering both the intensity and durations were also estimated.ResultsImmediate effects of temperature on EDV and EAD were detected, after controlling for trends of time and day of week. The exposure-response relationships showed J-shaped curves with higher threshold temperature of EDV than that of EAD visually. When estimating risk changes on heat days compared with non-heat days using different percentiles of daily mean temperature in definition, EAD showed significant increases while non-significant or even negative associations were found for EDV. Heat wave with intensity above the 90th percentile had 2.62% (95% CI: 1.78%, 3.46%) and 0.95% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.69%) increases in EDV for a duration of at least 2 days and 3 days respectively. The relative increase of EAD were 4.85% (95% CI: 1.42%, 8.39%) and 3.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 7.10%).ConclusionsVaried effects of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits and emergency ambulance dispatches were investigated. This wider view of the health effect of temperature indicated that interventions for both public health education and health services management should be considered in the study region.
| S-EPMC4201734 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMany studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality. However, less evidence is available on the temperature effects on gender- and age-specific emergency department visits, especially in developing countries. In this study, we examined the short-term effects of daily ambient temperature on emergency department visits (ED visits) in Shanghai.MethodsDaily ED visits and daily ambient temperatures between January 2006 and December 2011 were analyzed. After controlling for secular and seasonal trends, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) was used to examine the associations between ambient temperature and gender- and age-specific ED visits. A moving average lag model was used to evaluate the lag effects of temperature on ED visits.ResultsLow temperature was associated with an overall 2.76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73 to 3.80) increase in ED visits per 1°C decrease in temperature at Lag1 day, 2.03% (95% CI: 1.04 to 3.03) and 2.45% (95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52) for males and females. High temperature resulted in an overall 1.78% (95% CI: 1.05 to 2.51) increase in ED visits per 1°C increase in temperature on the same day, 1.81% (95% CI: 1.08 to 2.54) among males and 1.75% (95% CI: 1.03 to 2.49) among females. The cold effect appeared to be more acute among younger people aged <45 years, whereas the effects were consistent on individuals aged ?65 years. In contrast, the effects of high temperature were relatively consistent over all age groups.ConclusionsThese findings suggest a significant association between ambient temperature and ED visits in Shanghai. Both cold and hot temperatures increased the relative risk of ED visits. This knowledge has the potential to advance prevention efforts targeting weather-sensitive conditions.
| S-EPMC4258028 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Paediatric emergency department (PED) attendances reduced worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) but anecdotally babies under 30 days (BUD) appeared less affected. We collated monthly PED attendances (16 years and under) across four hospitals (three district general hospitals and a tertiary specialist PED) in England, UK from January 2017 to December 2020. Gross PED attendances dropped by 34% in 2020 (n=98 256) compared to 2019 (n=148 640). However, cumulative BUD attendances dropped by only 6% in 2020 (n=3922) compared to 2019 (n=4162). Monthly site-specific attendances showed marginal variation. PED attendances broadly decreased in 2020 with less of an impact on BUD.
| S-EPMC8830266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundShort-term associations between extreme heat events and adverse health outcomes are well-established in epidemiologic studies. However, the use of different exposure definitions across studies has limited our understanding of extreme heat characteristics that are most important for specific health outcomes or subpopulations.MethodsLogic regression is a statistical learning method for constructing decision trees based on Boolean combinations of binary predictors. We describe how logic regression can be utilized as a data-driven approach to identify extreme heat exposure definitions using health outcome data. We evaluated the performance of the proposed algorithm in a simulation study, as well as in a 20-year time-series analysis of extreme heat and emergency department visits for 12 outcomes in the Atlanta metropolitan area.ResultsFor the Atlanta case study, our novel application of logic regression identified extreme heat exposure definitions that were associated with several heat-sensitive disease outcomes (e.g., fluid and electrolyte imbalance, renal diseases, ischemic stroke, and hypertension). Exposures were often characterized by extreme apparent minimum temperature or maximum temperature over multiple days. The simulation study also demonstrated that logic regression can successfully identify exposures of different lags and duration structures when statistical power is sufficient.ConclusionLogic regression is a useful tool for identifying important characteristics of extreme heat exposures for adverse health outcomes, which may help improve future heat warning systems and response plans.
| S-EPMC8077733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) visit and hospital admissions (HA) data have been an indispensible resource for assessing acute morbidity impacts of air pollution. ED visits and HAs are types of health care visits with similarities, but also potentially important differences. Little previous information is available regarding the impact of health care visit type on observed acute air pollution-health associations from studies conducted for the same location, time period, outcome definitions and model specifications. METHODS: As part of a broader study of air pollution and health in St. Louis, individual-level ED and HA data were obtained for a 6.5 year period for acute care hospitals in the eight Missouri counties of the St. Louis metropolitan area. Patient demographic characteristics and diagnostic code distributions were compared for four visit types including ED visits, HAs, HAs that came through the ED, and non-elective HAs. Time-series analyses of the relationship between daily ambient ozone and PM?.? and selected cardiorespiratory outcomes were conducted for each visit type. RESULTS: Our results indicate that, compared with ED patients, HA patients tended to be older, had evidence of greater severity for some outcomes, and had a different mix of specific outcomes. Consideration of 'HA through ED' appeared to more effectively select acute visits than consideration of 'non-elective HA'. While outcomes with the strongest observed temporal associations with air pollutants tended to show strong associations for all visit types, we found some differences in observed associations for ED visits and HAs. For example, risk ratios for the respiratory disease-ozone association were 1.020 for ED visits and 1.004 for 'HA through ED'; risk ratios for the asthma/wheeze-ozone association were 1.069 for ED visits and 1.106 for 'HA through ED'. Several factors (e.g. age) were identified that may be responsible, in part, for the differences in observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic and diagnostic differences between visit types may lead to preference for one visit type over another for some questions and populations. The strengths of observed associations with air pollutants sometimes varied between different health care visit types, but the relative strengths of association generally were specific to the pollutant-outcome combination.
| S-EPMC3511882 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundIntroduction of the mRNA vaccination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with an increase in cases of peri/myocarditis. In our retrospective cross-sectional study, we aim to (I) describe paediatric chest pain attendance, and (II) study resource utilisation in the Emergency Department (ED) of KK Women's and Children's Hospital (KKH), stratified by pre-pandemic, during the pandemic pre- and post-COVID vaccination introduction in adolescents.MethodsWe reviewed records of adolescents aged 12 to 18 years old who presented to our ED with the triage complaint of chest pain between 1 January 2019 to 31 January 2022, and determined the attendance rates, aetiologies and resource utilisation during the above time periods.ResultsThere were 2,418 ED attendances for chest pain in our study population. Among 887 inpatient admissions for chest pain, 1.8% were attributed to a cardiac cause. Comparing the pre-pandemic period to the period after the mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was introduced, ED chest pain rates increased from a median of 0.5% of ED attendances [interquartile range (IQR), 0.3-0.5%] to 0.9% (IQR, 0.7-2.0%) (P<0.001), while admission rates increased from a median of 26.2% of ED attendances (IQR, 24.1-29.1%) to 40.9% (IQR, 37.6-56.6%) (P<0.001). Cardiac enzyme orders among ED visits for chest pain increased from a pre-pandemic median of 0% (IQR, 0.0-2.6%) to a post-vaccination median of 26.1% (IQR, 17.2-56.2%) (P<0.001) and were due to concerns for vaccine-related myocarditis. Seven cases of probable vaccine-related myocarditis presented with chest pain to our ED.ConclusionsPaediatric chest pain is largely non-cardiac in origin. ED chest pain attendance rates and resource utilisation increased after the introduction of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents.
| S-EPMC10730957 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital healthcare, we studied activity in the emergency department (ED) and acute medicine department of a major UK hospital.MethodsElectronic patient records for all adult patients attending ED (n = 243,667) or acute medicine (n = 82,899) during the pandemic (2020-2021) and prior year (2019) were analysed and compared. We studied parameters including severity, primary diagnoses, co-morbidity, admission rate, length of stay, bed occupancy, and mortality, with a focus on non-COVID-19 diseases.ResultsDuring the first wave of the pandemic, daily ED attendance fell by 37%, medical admissions by 30% and medical bed occupancy by 27%, but all returned to normal within a year. ED attendances and medical admissions fell across all age ranges; the greatest reductions were seen for younger adults in ED attendances, but in older adults for medical admissions. Compared to non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions, COVID-19 admissions were enriched for minority ethnic groups, for dementia, obesity and diabetes, but had lower rates of malignancy. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions had more hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, and obesity. There were fewer low severity ED attendances during the pandemic and fewer medical admissions across all severity categories. There were fewer ED attendances with common non-respiratory illnesses including cardiac diagnoses, but no change in cardiac arrests. COVID-19 was the commonest diagnosis amongst medical admissions during the first wave and there were fewer diagnoses of pneumonia, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cellulitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, urinary tract infection and other sepsis, but not stroke. Levels had rebounded by a year later with a trend to higher levels of stroke than before the pandemic. During the pandemic first wave, 7-day mortality was increased for ED attendances, but not for non-COVID-19 medical admissions.ConclusionsReduced ED attendances in the first wave of the pandemic suggest opportunities for reducing low severity presentations to ED in the future, but also raise the possibility of harm from delayed or missed care. Reassuringly, recent rises in attendance and admissions indicate that any deterrent effect of the pandemic on attendance is diminishing.
| S-EPMC8605447 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundScoring systems that weigh the degree of abnormality of bedside observations might be able to identify patients at risk of catastrophic deterioration.ObjectivesTo establish a frequency distribution for typical physiological scoring systems and to establish the potential benefit of adding these to an existing triage system in accident and emergency departments.MethodsPhysiological data were collected from 53 unselected emergency department admissions, from 50 patients admitted from the emergency department to intensive care, and from 50 patients admitted from emergency department to general wards and then to intensive care. Three different physiological scores were calculated from the data. Identification of sick patients by the scores was compared with triage information from the Manchester Triage System (MTS).ResultsMost patients admitted to the emergency department would not be identified as critically ill with the aid of physiological scoring systems. This was true even for patients who were admitted to intensive care. Only in 0-8% of unselected patients did the scores indicate increased risk. In 100 patients admitted to the intensive care, adding of medical emergency team call-out criteria, Modified Early Warning Score or Assessment Score for Sick patient Identification and Step-up in Treatment would identify none, seven or one patient in addition to those triaged as orange and red by the MTS.ConclusionsIntroduction of a physiological scoring system would have identified only a small number of additional patients as critically ill and added little to the triage system currently in use.
| S-EPMC2464409 | biostudies-literature