Dataset Information

Tracing the Origin of Food-borne Disease Outbreaks: A Network Model Approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Food-borne disease outbreaks constitute a large health burden on society. One of the challenges when investigating such outbreaks is to trace the origin of the outbreak. In this study, we consider a network model to determine the spatial origin of the contaminated food product that caused the outbreak.

Methods

The network model we use replaces the classic geographic distance of a network by an effective distance so that two nodes connected by a long-range link may be more strongly connected than their geographic distance would suggest. Furthermore, the effective distance transforms complex spatial patterns into regular topological patterns, creating a means for easier identification of the origin of the spreading phenomenon. Because detailed information on food distribution is generally not available, the model uses the gravity model from economics: the flow of goods from one node to another increases with population size and decreases with the geographical distance between them.

Results

This effective distance network approach has been shown to perform well in a large Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011. In this article, we apply the same method to various food-borne disease outbreaks in the Netherlands. We found the effective distance network approach to fail in certain scenarios.

Conclusions

Great care should be taken as to whether the underlying network model correctly captures the spreading mechanism of the outbreak in terms of spatial scale and single or multiple source outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Jacobs R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7144751 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Tracing the Origin of Food-borne Disease Outbreaks: A Network Model Approach.

Jacobs Rianne R Teunis Peter P van de Kassteele Jan J

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20200501 3

<h4>Background</h4>Food-borne disease outbreaks constitute a large health burden on society. One of the challenges when investigating such outbreaks is to trace the origin of the outbreak. In this study, we consider a network model to determine the spatial origin of the contaminated food product that caused the outbreak.<h4>Methods</h4>The network model we use replaces the classic geographic distance of a network by an effective distance so that two nodes connected by a long-range link may be mo ...[more]

PMID: 32079833

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Project description:This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2017 in 37 European countries (28 Member States (MS) and nine non-MS). Campylobacteriosis was the commonest reported zoonosis and its EU trend for confirmed human cases increasing since 2008 stabilised during 2013-2017. The decreasing EU trend for confirmed human salmonellosis cases since 2008 ended during 2013-2017, and the proportion of human Salmonella Enteritidis cases increased, mostly due to one MS starting to report serotype data. Sixteen MS met all Salmonella reduction targets for poultry, whereas 12 MS failed meeting at least one. The EU flock prevalence of target Salmonella serovars in breeding hens, laying hens, broilers and fattening turkeys decreased or remained stable compared to 2016, and slightly increased in breeding turkeys. Salmonella results on pig carcases and target Salmonella serovar results for poultry from competent authorities tended to be generally higher compared to those from food business operators. The notification rate of human listeriosis further increased in 2017, despite Listeria seldom exceeding the EU food safety limit in ready-to-eat food. The decreasing EU trend for confirmed yersiniosis cases since 2008 stabilised during 2013-2017. The number of confirmed shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections in humans was stable. A total of 5,079 food-borne (including waterborne) outbreaks were reported. Salmonella was the commonest detected agent with S. Enteritidis causing one out of seven outbreaks, followed by other bacteria, bacterial toxins and viruses. The agent was unknown in 37.6% of all outbreaks. Salmonella in eggs and Salmonella in meat and meat products were the highest risk agent/food pairs. The report further summarises trends and sources for bovine tuberculosis, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma, rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever), West Nile virus and tularaemia.

Project description:This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2016 in 37 European countries (28 Member States (MS) and nine non-MS). Campylobacteriosis was the most commonly reported zoonosis and the increasing European Union (EU) trend for confirmed human cases since 2008 stabilised during 2012-2016. In food, the occurrence of Campylobacter remained high in broiler meat. The decreasing EU trend for confirmed human salmonellosis cases since 2008 ended during 2012-2016, and the proportion of human Salmonella Enteritidis cases increased. Most MS met their Salmonella reduction targets for poultry, except five MS for laying hens. At primary production level, the EU-level flock prevalence of target Salmonella serovars in breeding hens, broilers, breeding and fattening turkeys decreased or stabilised compared with previous years but the EU prevalence of S. Enteritidis in laying hens significantly increased. In foodstuffs, the EU-level Salmonella non-compliance for minced meat and meat preparations from poultry was low. The number of human listeriosis confirmed cases further increased in 2016, despite the fact that Listeria seldom exceeds the EU food safety limit in ready-to-eat foods. The decreasing EU trend for confirmed yersiniosis cases since 2008 stabilised during 2012-2016, and also the number of confirmed Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections in humans was stable. In total, 4,786 food-borne outbreaks, including waterborne outbreaks, were reported. Salmonella was the most commonly detected causative agent - with one out of six outbreaks due to S. Enteritidis - followed by other bacteria, bacterial toxins and viruses. Salmonella in eggs continued to represent the highest risk agent/food combination. The report further summarises trends and sources for bovine tuberculosis, brucellosis, trichinellosis, echinococcosis, toxoplasmosis, rabies, Q fever, West Nile fever and tularaemia.

Dataset Information

Tracing the Origin of Food-borne Disease Outbreaks: A Network Model Approach.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Tracing the Origin of Food-borne Disease Outbreaks: A Network Model Approach.

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