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Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation.

ABSTRACT: Intermittent androgen deprivation therapy (IADT) is an attractive treatment for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer (PCa), whereby cycling treatment on and off can reduce cumulative dose and limit toxicities. We simulate prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics, with enrichment of PCa stem-like cell (PCaSC) during treatment as a plausible mechanism of resistance evolution. Simulated PCaSC proliferation patterns correlate with longitudinal serum PSA measurements in 70 PCa patients. Learning dynamics from each treatment cycle in a leave-one-out study, model simulations predict patient-specific evolution of resistance with an overall accuracy of 89% (sensitivity?=?73%, specificity?=?91%). Previous studies have shown a benefit of concurrent therapies with ADT in both low- and high-volume metastatic hormone-sensitive PCa. Model simulations based on response dynamics from the first IADT cycle identify patients who would benefit from concurrent docetaxel, demonstrating the feasibility and potential value of adaptive clinical trials guided by patient-specific mathematical models of intratumoral evolutionary dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Brady-Nicholls R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7145869 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation.

Brady-Nicholls Renee R Nagy John D JD Gerke Travis A TA Zhang Tian T Wang Andrew Z AZ Zhang Jingsong J Gatenby Robert A RA Enderling Heiko H

Nature communications 20200409 1

Intermittent androgen deprivation therapy (IADT) is an attractive treatment for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer (PCa), whereby cycling treatment on and off can reduce cumulative dose and limit toxicities. We simulate prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics, with enrichment of PCa stem-like cell (PCaSC) during treatment as a plausible mechanism of resistance evolution. Simulated PCaSC proliferation patterns correlate with longitudinal serum PSA measurements in 70 PCa patients. Learning d ...[more]

PMID: 32273504

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Project description:BackgroundCastration resistance occurs in most patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer who are receiving androgen-deprivation therapy. Replacing androgens before progression of the disease is hypothesized to prolong androgen dependence.MethodsMen with newly diagnosed, metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, a performance status of 0 to 2, and a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of 5 ng per milliliter or higher received a luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogue and an antiandrogen agent for 7 months. We then randomly assigned patients in whom the PSA level fell to 4 ng per milliliter or lower to continuous or intermittent androgen deprivation, with patients stratified according to prior or no prior hormonal therapy, performance status, and extent of disease (minimal or extensive). The coprimary objectives were to assess whether intermittent therapy was noninferior to continuous therapy with respect to survival, with a one-sided test with an upper boundary of the hazard ratio of 1.20, and whether quality of life differed between the groups 3 months after randomization.ResultsA total of 3040 patients were enrolled, of whom 1535 were included in the analysis: 765 randomly assigned to continuous androgen deprivation and 770 assigned to intermittent androgen deprivation. The median follow-up period was 9.8 years. Median survival was 5.8 years in the continuous-therapy group and 5.1 years in the intermittent-therapy group (hazard ratio for death with intermittent therapy, 1.10; 90% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.23). Intermittent therapy was associated with better erectile function and mental health (P<0.001 and P=0.003, respectively) at month 3 but not thereafter. There were no significant differences between the groups in the number of treatment-related high-grade adverse events.ConclusionsOur findings were statistically inconclusive. In patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, the confidence interval for survival exceeded the upper boundary for noninferiority, suggesting that we cannot rule out a 20% greater risk of death with intermittent therapy than with continuous therapy, but too few events occurred to rule out significant inferiority of intermittent therapy. Intermittent therapy resulted in small improvements in quality of life. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002651.).

Project description:Purpose We evaluated the relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and overall survival in the context of a prospectively randomized clinical trial comparing androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) plus docetaxel with ADT alone for initial metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. Methods We performed a landmark survival analysis at 7 months using the E3805 Chemohormonal Therapy Versus Androgen Ablation Randomized Trial for Extensive Disease in Prostate Cancer (CHAARTED) database ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00309985). Inclusion required at least 7 months of follow-up and PSA levels at 7 months from ADT initiation. We used the prognostic classifiers identified in a previously reported trial (Southwest Oncology Group 9346) of PSA ? 0.2, > 0.2 to 4, and > 4 ng/mL. Results Seven hundred nineteen of 790 patients were eligible for this subanalysis; 358 were treated with ADT plus docetaxel, and 361 were treated with ADT alone. Median follow-up time was 23.1 months. On multivariable analysis, achieving a 7-month PSA ? 0.2 ng/mL was more likely with docetaxel, low-volume disease, prior local therapy, and lower baseline PSAs (all P ? .01). Across all patients, median overall survival was significantly longer if 7-month PSA reached ? 0.2 ng/mL compared with > 4 ng/mL (median survival, 60.4 v 22.2 months, respectively; P < .001). On multivariable analysis, 7-month PSA ? 0.2 and low volume disease were prognostic of longer overall survival (all P < 0.01). The addition of docetaxel increased the likelihood of achieving a PSA ? 0.2 ng/mL at 7 months (45.3% v 28.8% of patients on ADT alone). Patients on ADT alone who achieved a 7-month PSA ? 0.2 ng/mL had the best survival and were more likely to have low-volume disease (56.7%). Conclusion PSA ? 0.2 ng/mL at 7 months is prognostic for longer overall survival with ADT for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer irrespective of docetaxel administration. Adding docetaxel increased the likelihood of a lower PSA and improved survival.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Optimal utilization of novel therapies for advanced prostate cancer is challenging without a validated surrogate efficacy endpoint. Ongoing trials are using durable undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels as a marker of efficacy. The clinical relevance of prolonged undetectable PSA after a short course of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is uncertain. METHODS:The University of Washington Caisis database was queried for radical prostatectomy patients who received 6-12 months of ADT after biochemical recurrence (BCR), defined as PSA ?0.2?ng/mL and no radiographically detectable metastasis. Proportions of men with undetectable PSA 12 and 24 months after ending ADT were compared to a hypothesized 5% rate using exact binomial tests. Associations with patient and tumor characteristics were examined using logistic regression, and associations with risk of subsequent metastasis and death were evaluated by log-rank tests. RESULTS:After ineligibility exclusions, 23/93 (25%; 95%CI 16-35%; P?<?0.001) and 14/93 (15%; 95%CI 9-24%; P?<?0.001) had undetectable PSA 12 and 24 months after ending ADT, respectively. Detectable PSA at 12 months was associated with increased risk of metastasis (P?=?0.006), prostate cancer-specific death (P?=?0.028), and death from any cause (P?=?0.065). Being 1 year older at diagnosis was associated with a 14% (95%CI 5-24%; P?=?0.006) decrease in the odds of having a detectable PSA after controlling for PSA at diagnosis, PSA doubling time, grade group, and time from initial therapy to BCR. CONCLUSIONS:This single-institution retrospective analysis shows that it is not uncommon to have undetectable PSA 12 or 24 months after a short course of ADT. No baseline prognostic characteristic other than age was associated with a durable (12 month) undetectable PSA. Because a durable undetectable PSA was associated with lower risks of metastasis and prostate cancer-specific death, it may be a reasonable clinical trial endpoint.

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Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation.

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Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation.

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