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Monsoon weather and early childhood health in India.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:India is expected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the coming decades, which poses serious risks to human health and wellbeing in the country. OBJECTIVE:This paper aims to shed light on the possible detrimental effects of monsoon weather shocks on childhood undernutrition in India using the Demographic and Health Survey 2015-16, in combination with geo-referenced climate data. METHODS:Undernutrition is captured through measures of height-for-age, weight-for-height, stunting and wasting among children aged 0-59 months. The standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is used to measure climatic conditions during critical periods of child development. RESULTS:The results of a multivariate logistic regression model show that climate anomalies experienced in utero and during infancy are associated with an increased risk of child undernutrition; exposure to excessive monsoon precipitation during these early periods of life elevates the risk of stunting, particularly for children in the tropical wet and humid sub-tropical regions. In contrast, the risk of stunting is reduced for children residing in the mountainous areas who have experienced excessive monsoon precipitation during infancy. The evidence on the short-term effects of climate shocks on wasting is inconclusive. We additionally show that excessive precipitation, particularly during the monsoon season, is associated with an increased risk of contracting diarrhoea among children under five. Diseases transmitted through water, such as diarrhoea, could be one important channel through which excessive rainfall increases the risk of stunting. CONCLUSIONS:We find a positive association between childhood undernutrition and exposure to excessive monsoon precipitation in India. Pronounced differences across climate zones are found. The findings of the present analysis warn of the urgent need to provide health assistance to children in flood-prone areas.

SUBMITTER: Dimitrova A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7147999 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe early period of a child's life is considered to be the most important developmental stage throughout the lifespan. Around 250 million children of age below five years in low-and middle- income countries (LMICs) are at risk of not attaining their developmental potential. A cross-sectional case study was conducted to assess the early childhood developmental (ECD) status and to investigate the factors influencing the same in Malda, India.MethodsInformation on 731 pre-school children aged 36 to 59 months was collected in 2018 using a structured questionnaire following a multi-stage, stratified simple random sampling procedure. ECD was measured following the UNICEF's Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which monitors early child development in LMICs. A path analysis using structural equation modelling was carried out to examine the relationship between possible associated factors and ECD status.ResultsIt has been found that only about 25% of children are developmentally on track of literacy-numeracy domain of ECD. Although, in the other domains, the situation is better. Results of the path analysis revealed that there are certain proximal factors, i.e., home environment, mother's time for care, having home tuition and attending private pre-school, which are influenced by certain distal factors and subsequently affecting ECD. The total effects revealed that place of residence (urban or rural) affects ECD mostly (Coef. -0.87, p = <0.001) directly or via mothers' time for stimulating activities, home environment and having home tuition for children. Further, it revealed that private pre-schools (Coef. 0.76, p = <0.001) and home tuition (Coef. 0.43, p = <0.001) also play a significant role in ECD.ConclusionUrgent attention from policymakers or other stakeholders is needed to promote ECD for the betterment of children and society of Malda district. In addition to that, special attention needs to be given to the children who belong to Muslim families, socially deprived communities and living in rural areas.

Project description:Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing.

Project description:India has recorded 142,186 deaths over 36 administrative regions placing India third in the world after the US and Brazil for COVID-19 deaths as of 12 December 2020. Studies indicate that south-west monsoon season plays a role in the dynamics of contagious diseases, which tend to peak post-monsoon season. Recent studies show that vitamin D and its primary source Ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation may play a protective role in mitigating COVID-19 deaths. However, the combined roles of the monsoon season and UVB radiation in COVID-19 in India remain still unclear. In this observational study, we empirically study the respective roles of monsoon season and UVB radiation, whilst further exploring, whether the monsoon season negatively impacts the protective role of UVB radiation in COVID-19 deaths in India. We use a log-linear Mundlak model to a panel dataset of 36 administrative regions in India from 14 March 2020-19 November 2020 (n = 6751). We use the cumulative COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable. We isolate the association of monsoon season and UVB radiation as measured by Ultraviolet Index (UVI) from other confounding time-constant and time-varying region-specific factors. After controlling for various confounding factors, we observe that a unit increase in UVI and the monsoon season are separately associated with 1.2 percentage points and 7.5 percentage points decline in growth rates of COVID-19 deaths in the long run. These associations translate into substantial relative changes. For example, a permanent unit increase of UVI is associated with a decrease of growth rates of COVID-19 deaths by 33% (= - 1.2 percentage points) However, the monsoon season, mitigates the protective role of UVI by 77% (0.92 percentage points). Our results indicate a protective role of UVB radiation in mitigating COVID-19 deaths in India. Furthermore, we find evidence that the monsoon season is associated with a significant reduction in the protective role of UVB radiation. Our study outlines the roles of the monsoon season and UVB radiation in COVID-19 in India and supports health-related policy decision making in India.

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Monsoon weather and early childhood health in India.

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