Modelling conditional skewness: Heterogeneous beliefs, short sale restrictions and market declines
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Shum W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7148999 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:This paper considers whether survey respondents' views regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are comparable to market views indicated by index options with strikes at analogous thresholds. It is motivated by the observation thatthe wording used to elicit subjective beliefs in surveys about expected future returns resembles the question a purchaser of a call option might ask. Building on this association, we document a similarity between the views of survey respondents and those of financial market participants as measured through call options, although the association is not one-for-one. We find a closer association for those demonstrating a better understanding of the laws of probability, suggesting that numeracy affects the accuracy of an elicited response.
| S-EPMC6456065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The endowment effect occurs when people assign a higher value to an item they own than to the same item when they do not own it, and this effect is often taken to reflect an ownership-induced change in the intrinsic value people assign to the object. However recent evidence shows that valuations made by buyers and sellers are influenced by market prices provided for the individual products, suggesting a role for beliefs about the markets. Here we elicit individuals' beliefs about whole distributions of market prices, enabling us to quantify whether or not a given transaction constitutes a "good deal" and to demonstrate how an endowment effect may reflect such considerations. In a meta-analysis and three laboratory experiments, we show for the first time that ownership has no effect on beliefs about either: (a) the quality of the item or (b) the appropriate market price for the item. Instead, we show that sellers demand a price for the item that matches their beliefs about the item's relative quality and the distribution of market prices in the market. Buyers, in contrast, offer less than what they believe the appropriate market price is. Thus, we argue that the endowment effect may largely reflect "adaptively rational" behavior on the part of both buyers and sellers (given their beliefs about relevant markets) rather than any ownership-induced bias or change in intrinsic preferences.
| S-EPMC7983076 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe South African government enforced various alcohol sale restrictions during the COVID-19 lockdown in order to reduce hospital admissions related to alcohol-associated injuries. A cross-sectional study was performed to describe the temporal changes in trauma according to alcohol sale restrictions during the South African national COVID-19 lockdown.MethodsData from all trauma-related patients presenting to the emergency centre of Mitchells Plain Hospital from 01/03/2020 till 29/9/2020 and corresponding periods during 2019 were exported from an existing database. The relationship between variables was determined with the χ2-test, Fisher's exact test, independent samples median test or t-test. A sub-analysis compared similar 2020 lockdown levels when a second alcohol ban were instituted while most business were allowed to operate (level 3b - alcohol banned versus level 3 - alcohol restricted).ResultsTotal number of trauma presentations were 539 (14.6%) less in 2020 (n = 3160) than in 2019 (n = 3699); the mean number decreased by 2.5 per day (95% CI -2.9 to -2.1). Lockdown levels with an alcohol ban had on average 4.8 less patients per day than corresponding periods in 2019 (p < 0.001). No significant difference was observed in lockdown levels with alcohol sale restrictions (mean difference per day -0.4, p = 0.195). Trauma presentations increased significantly (mean difference per day 7.0 (95% CI 6.5 to 7.5)) from 2020 lockdown levels with alcohol sales ban (mean per day 11.4) to 2020 lockdown levels with alcohol sale restrictions (mean per day 18.4). Significantly less patients (mean -3.2 (95% CI -3.9 to -2.5)) presented during 2020 lockdown level 3b (alcohol sales banned, mean 13.9) compared to level 3 (alcohol sales restricted, mean 17.1).ConclusionTemporal changes in trauma were observed according to alcohol sale restrictions during South Africa's COVID-19 lockdown periods. Significantly less trauma cases presented during periods with an alcohol ban compared to periods where alcohol sales were only restricted.
| S-EPMC8410509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract Liquidity restrictions on investors, like the redemption gates and liquidity fees
| S-EPMC8244680 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. To understand this seeming paradox and explore policy responses, we develop the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) and analyze the long-term evolution of coastal real estate markets. C-HOM incorporates changing physical attributes of the coast, economic values of these attributes, and dynamic risks associated with storms and flooding. Resident owners, renters, and non-resident investors jointly determine coastal property values and the policy choices that influence the physical evolution of the coast. In the coupled system, we find that subsidies for coastal management, such as beach nourishment, tax advantages for high-income property owners, and stable or increasing property values outside the coastal zone all dampen the effects of SLR on coastal property values. The effects, however, are temporary and only delay precipitous declines as total inundation approaches. By removing subsidies, prices would more accurately reflect risks from SLR but also trigger more coastal gentrification, as relatively high-income owners enter the market and self-finance nourishment. Our results suggest a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions in coastal communities and allowing property markets to adjust smoothly to risks from climate change.
| S-EPMC10928214 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We experimentally investigate how different information about others' individual contributions affects people's willingness to cooperate in a one-shot linear public goods game. We find that when information about individual contributions is provided, contributions are generally higher than when only average information is available. This effect is particularly strong when others' individual contributions are relatively homogeneous. When both types of information are provided, this effect is moderated. In the case of individual feedback we find the willingness to contribute to be higher the lower the variation in others' contributions, but with pronounced heterogeneity in individuals' reactions. While the majority of people are mainly guided by others' average contributions, more people follow the bad example of a low contributor than the good example of a high contributor. Overall, we provide evidence that information (and lack thereof) about others' individual contributions affects people's willingness to cooperate in systematic ways.
| S-EPMC5788275 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper, we propose a unified logical framework for representing and analyzing various forms of correlated information change. Our main thesis is that "logical dynamics," in the sense of van Benthem (Exploring logical dynamics. CSLI Publications, Stanford, 1996; Logical dynamics of information and interaction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2011), and in particular dynamic epistemic notions of conditional, as developed in Baltag and Smets (Electron Notes Theor Comput Sci 165:5-21, 2006a; Stud Log 89:185-209, 2008a; Texts in logic and games. Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, pp 9-58, 2008b), play a central role in understanding and modeling a wide range of apparently very different information-gathering phenomena which do have one specific feature in common, namely the very act of learning new information may directly change the reality that is being learned. On the one hand, we focus on the way in which an introspective agent changes her beliefs when learning new higher-order information, i.e., information that may refer to her own beliefs. On the other hand, we analyze situations in which an observer learns about a phenomenon by performing observations that may perturb the very phenomenon under study, as in the case of quantum measurements, or observations in social sciences, psychology and medicine. Our formal techniques are based on ideas from dynamic logic and on the modeling of "dynamic conditionals." We offer a semantics based on "test frames," i.e., Kripke frames labeled by propositional formulae which yields a unified setting for the two types of correlated information change under study. We show how this framework can be used to analyze the ontic and epistemic-informational aspects of quantum measurements and to compare them with other types of observation, testing, belief revision, counterfactual conditionals, etc.
| S-EPMC7089657 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The generation of conditional alleles using CRISPR technology is still challenging. Here, we introduce a Short Conditional intrON (SCON, 189 bp) that enables the rapid generation of conditional alleles via one-step zygote injection. In this study, a total of 13 SCON mouse lines were successfully generated by 2 different laboratories. SCON has conditional intronic functions in various vertebrate species, and its target insertion is as simple as CRISPR/Cas9-mediated gene tagging.
| S-EPMC9794761 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican 'bracero' farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel archival data we measure state-level exposure to exclusion, and model the labor-market effect in the absence of technical change. We reject such an effect and fail to reject a null effect.
| S-EPMC6040835 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction:Mass appraisals in the rental housing market are far less common than those in the sales market. However, there is evidence for substantial growth in the rental market and this lack of insight hampers commercial organisations and local and national governments in understanding this market. Case description:This case study uses data that are supplied from a property listings web site and are unique in their scale, with over 1.2 million rental property listings available over a 2 year period. The data is analysed in a large data institute using generalised linear regression, machine learning and a pseudo practitioner based approach. Discussion and evaluation:The study should be seen as a practical guide for property professionals and academics wishing to undertake such appraisals and looking for guidance on the best methods to use. It also provides insight into the property characteristics which most influence rental listing price. Conclusions:From the regression analysis, attributes that increase the rental listing price are: the number of rooms in the property, proximity to central London and to railway stations, being located in more affluent neighbourhoods and being close to local amenities and better performing schools. Of the machine learning algorithms used, the two tree based approaches were seen to outperform the regression based approaches. In terms of a simple measure of the median appraisal error, a practitioner based approach is seen to outperform the modelling approaches. A practical finding is that the application of sophisticated machine learning algorithms to big data is still a challenge for modern desktop PCs.
| S-EPMC6405176 | biostudies-literature