Dataset Information

Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, and it is unknown whether a combination of public health interventions can improve control of the outbreak.

Objective

To evaluate the association of public health interventions with the epidemiological features of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by 5 periods according to key events and interventions.

Design, setting, and participants

In this cohort study, individual-level data on 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between December 8, 2019, and March 8, 2020, were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System, including patients' age, sex, residential location, occupation, and severity classification.

Exposures

Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions including cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction, social distancing, home confinement, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey.

Main outcomes and measures

Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections (defined as the number of cases per day per million people), across age, sex, and geographic locations were calculated across 5 periods: December 8 to January 9 (no intervention), January 10 to 22 (massive human movement due to the Chinese New Year holiday), January 23 to February 1 (cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction and home quarantine), February 2 to 16 (centralized quarantine and treatment), and February 17 to March 8 (universal symptom survey). The effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (an indicator of secondary transmission) was also calculated over the periods.

Results

Among 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, the median patient age was 56.7 years (range, 0-103; interquartile range, 43.4-66.8) and 16 817 (51.6%) were women. The daily confirmed case rate peaked in the third period and declined afterward across geographic regions and sex and age groups, except for children and adolescents, whose rate of confirmed cases continued to increase. The daily confirmed case rate over the whole period in local health care workers (130.5 per million people [95% CI, 123.9-137.2]) was higher than that in the general population (41.5 per million people [95% CI, 41.0-41.9]). The proportion of severe and critical cases decreased from 53.1% to 10.3% over the 5 periods. The severity risk increased with age: compared with those aged 20 to 39 years (proportion of severe and critical cases, 12.1%), elderly people (≥80 years) had a higher risk of having severe or critical disease (proportion, 41.3%; risk ratio, 3.61 [95% CI, 3.31-3.95]) while younger people (<20 years) had a lower risk (proportion, 4.1%; risk ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.70]). The effective reproduction number fluctuated above 3.0 before January 26, decreased to below 1.0 after February 6, and decreased further to less than 0.3 after March 1.

Conclusions and relevance

A series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may inform public health policy in other countries and regions.

SUBMITTER: Pan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7149375 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesTo describe the public health strategies and their effect in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic from March to October 2020 in Chennai, India.SettingChennai, a densely populated metropolitan city in Southern India, was one of the five cities which contributed to more than half of the COVID-19 cases in India from March to May 2020. A comprehensive community-centric public health strategy was implemented for controlling COVID-19, including surveillance, testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantine. In addition, there were different levels of restrictions between March and October 2020.ParticipantsWe collected the deidentified line list of all the 192 450 COVID-19 cases reported from 17 March to 31 October 2020 in Chennai and their contacts for the analysis. We defined a COVID-19 case based on the real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR) positive test conducted in one of the government-approved labs.Outcome measuresThe primary outcomes of interest were incidence of COVID-19 per million population, case fatality ratio (CFR), deaths per million, and the effective reproduction number (Rt). We also analysed the surveillance, testing, contact tracing and isolation indicators.ResultsOf the 192 450 RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in Chennai from 17 March to 31 October 2020, 114 889 (60%) were males. The highest incidence was 41 064 per million population among those 61-80 years. The incidence peaked during June 2020 at 5239 per million and declined to 3627 per million in October 2020. The city reported 3543 deaths, with a case fatality ratio of 1.8%. In March, Rt was 4.2, dropped below one in July and remained so until October, even with the relaxation of restrictions.ConclusionThe combination of public health strategies might have contributed to controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a large, densely populated city in India. We recommend continuing the test-trace-isolate strategy and appropriate restrictions to prevent resurgence.