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Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe.

ABSTRACT: This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration volumes, and their educational composition and speed of integration for the 28 European Union (EU) member states. We study the consequences in terms of the conventional age-dependency ratio, the labor-force dependency ratio, and the productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio using education as a proxy of productivity, which accounts for the fact that not all individuals are equality productive in society. The results show that in terms of the more sophisticated ratios, population aging looks less daunting than when only considering age structure. In terms of policy options, lifting labor-force participation among the general population as in Sweden, and education-selective migration if accompanied by high integration, could even improve economic dependency. On the other hand, high immigration volumes combined with both low education and integration leads to increasing economic dependency. This shows the high stakes involved with integration outcomes under high migration volumes.

SUBMITTER: Marois G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7149428 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe.

Marois Guillaume G Bélanger Alain A Lutz Wolfgang W

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200323 14

This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration volumes, and their educational composition and speed ...[more]

PMID: 32205431

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Project description:BackgroundThere is limited research examining the impact of risk and protective factors on late-life depression using large population-based datasets, particularly those examining differences among older migrants and non-migrants in Europe countries. Thus, the first aim was to analyze differences between migrants and non-migrants regarding socioeconomic status, depression, multimorbidity, healthy aging, and lifestyle behaviors. The second aim was to examine the impact of healthy aging on late-life depression in older migrants compared to their counterparts without a history of international migration in extensive and harmonized data from different population-based cohort studies.Materials and methodsWe analyzed cross-sectional, predominantly nationally representative, community-based data from European participants in the Aging Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) cohort. The descriptive analyses included sociodemographic variables, somatic comorbidities, multimorbidity, healthy aging, and lifestyle behaviors according to migration status. The effects of these variables on late-life depression were examined in a multivariate logistic regression model, including migration status and years since migration as predictors.ResultsData of 122,571 individuals aged ≥ 50 years were analyzed, of which 11,799 (9.60%) were migrants. The descriptive analyses indicated that compared to non-migrants, migrants showed a higher prevalence of diabetes (25.6%), hypertension (38.0%), coronary artery disease (49.4%), stroke (4.9%), and depression (31.1%). Healthy aging was also better in non-migrants (51.7; SD = 9.7) than in migrants (39.6; SD = 18.2). The results of the logistic regression showed that migration status [OR = 1.231 (CIs: 0.914-1.547)] and increased number of years since migration in the host country [OR = 0.003 (CIs: 0.001-0.005)] were associated with greater levels of depressive symptoms. Concerning health variables, multimorbidity was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms [OR = 0.244 (CIs: 0.211-0.278)], whereas better healthy aging was associated with fewer depressive symptoms [OR = -0.100 (CIs: -0.102 to -0.098)]. The interaction between migration and healthy aging status was also significant [OR. = -0.019 (CIs: -0.025 to -0.014)].ConclusionMigrants reported higher risks for worse health outcomes compared to non-migrants. Significantly, worse healthy aging was associated with a greater risk of depressive symptoms in migrants than in non-migrants. Shedding light on migration and aging processes is essential for promoting a cross-cultural understanding of late-life depression in Europe.

Project description:BackgroundMajor haemoglobinopathies (MH), such as thalassaemia syndromes (Thal) and sickle cell disorders (SCD), are genetic defects associated with chronic anaemia and other complications. In Europe, MH are rare diseases (RD) but their prevalence is significantly growing in many countries due to mobility and migration flows. This creates a growing health problem in the EU that has not yet been effectively addressed by Member States (MS) authorities. The present study has been conducted with the aim of: (i) providing an overview of policies for MH in 10 EU member states (MS) (ii) analysing the challenges linked to these RD due to growing requirements imposed by population, mobility and migration trends and (iii) identifying gaps, proposing improvements on existing policies, or developing new ones to fit the identified needs.MethodsThe study has been undertaken by a group of members of the European Network for Rare and Congenital Anaemias (ENERCA) and the Thalassaemia International Federation (TIF), in collaboration with the public affairs firm Burson-Marsteller Brussels. Data from 10 EU countries have been gathered using targeted desk research and one-to-one interviews with local stakeholders, including healthcare professionals, patients and public health officers/providers.Results1. MH are the most common RD in all the 10 countries, 2. Data on prevalence, overall burden, trends, and clinical follow up costs are lacking in most countries. 3. Neonatal screening practices show a wide variation across and within countries. 4. Awareness on MH and their related complications is very low, exception made of Italy, Greece, Cyprus and UK, 5. No disaggregated data is available to understand the impact of mobility and migration on the prevalence of haemoglobinopathies, and how healthcare delivery systems should adapt to respond to this situation. 6. Targeted policy measures and/or actions are generally lacking and/or delayed.ConclusionsTen policy recommendations have been drawn from this study, building on 2006 WHO recommendations for MH to include haemoglobinopathies in National Plans of Actions for Rare Diseases.

Dataset Information

Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe.

Publications

Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe.

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