Dataset Information

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models can aid in elucidating the spread of infectious disease dynamics within a given population over time. In an attempt to model tuberculosis (TB) dynamics among high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, the SEIR epidemic model with demography was employed within both deterministic and stochastic settings for comparison purposes. The deterministic model showed success in modelling TB infection in the region to the transmission dynamics of the stochastic SEIR model over time. It predicted tuberculosis dying out in ten of twelve high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region, but an outbreak in Obuasi municipal and Amansie West district. The effect of introducing treatment at the incubation stage of TB transmission was also investigated, and it was discovered that treatment introduced at the exposed stage decreased the spread of TB. Branching process approximation was used to derive explicit forms of relevant epidemiological quantities of the deterministic SEIR model for stability analysis of equilibrium points. Numerical simulations were performed to validate the overall infection rate, basic reproductive number, herd immunity threshold, and Malthusian parameter based on bootstrapping, jackknife, and Latin Hypercube sampling schemes. It was recommended that the Ghana Health Service should find a good mechanism to detect TB in the early stages of infection in the region. Public health attention must also be given to districts with a potentially higher risk of experiencing endemic TB even though the estimates of the overall epidemic thresholds from our SEIR model suggested that the Ashanti Region as a whole had herd immunity against TB infection.

SUBMITTER: Mettle FO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7150731 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

Mettle Felix Okoe FO Osei Affi Prince P Twumasi Clement C

Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases 20200331

Mathematical models can aid in elucidating the spread of infectious disease dynamics within a given population over time. In an attempt to model tuberculosis (TB) dynamics among high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, the SEIR epidemic model with demography was employed within both deterministic and stochastic settings for comparison purposes. The deterministic model showed success in modelling TB infection in the region to the transmission dynamics of the stochastic SEIR model ove ...[more]

PMID: 32318105

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Project description:ObjectiveAlthough several studies have assessed treatment outcomes of drug-susceptible tuberculosis (TB) in Ghana, very little has been done in the area of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). The aim of this study was to determine treatment outcomes and associated factors among patients treated for MDR-TB in the Ashanti Region, Ghana.DesignA retrospective, cross-sectional analysis.SettingThe study was conducted in the Ashanti Region, the second most populous region in Ghana. The regional MDR-TB register, which contains information on all patients with MDR-TB being treated at the various TB centres in the region, was analysed between February and May 2021.ParticipantsThe participants consisted of all registered patients with MDR-TB who were placed on treatment between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020. Patients were included in the analysis if their treatment outcome had been assigned. Patients with no record of treatment outcome were excluded from the study.Outcome measuresThe main outcome variable for the study was MDR-TB treatment outcome, standardised as 'cured', 'treatment completed', 'treatment failure', 'died' and 'lost to follow-up'. A logistic regression model was fitted for factors associated with the outcome measure.ResultsOut of 159 patients included in the analysis, 86 (54.1%) were declared cured, 28 (17.6%) completed their treatment successfully, 6 (3.8%) were declared treatment failure, 12 (7.5%) were lost to follow-up and 27 (17.0%) died. The overall treatment success rate was 71.7%. Patients who were female (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.27, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.39, p=0.023), younger (AOR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.19 to 2.11, p=0.012), had a higher level of education (AOR=1.12, 95% CI: 0.65 to 1.90, p=0.034), had a baseline body mass index of 18.5 kg/m2 or above (AOR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.23 to 2.47, p=0.011) and those who did not have a history of TB (AOR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.75, p=0.028) were more likely to have successful MDR-TB treatment outcomes.ConclusionsFavourable treatment outcomes for patients with MDR-TB can be achieved in a resource-limited country. Although the recommended WHO target of ≥75% was not met, the current result (71.7% treatment success rate) is still commendable considering all the challenges associated with TB treatment in Ghana.

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Project description:BackgroundIn the last decade, active case finding (ACF) strategies for tuberculosis (TB) have been implemented in many diverse settings, with some showing large increases in case detection and reporting at the sub-national level. There have also been several studies which seek to provide evidence for the benefits of ACF to individuals and communities in the broader context. However, there remains no quantification of the impact of ACF with regards to reducing the burden of transmission. We sought to address this knowledge gap and quantify the potential impact of active case finding on reducing transmission of TB at the national scale and further, to determine the intensification of intervention efforts required to bring the reproduction number (R0) below 1 for TB.MethodsWe adopt a dynamic transmission model that incorporates heterogeneity in risk to TB to assess the impact of an ACF programme (IMPACT TB) on reducing TB incidence in Vietnam and Nepal. We fit the models to country-level incidence data using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. We assess the impact of ACF using a parameter in our model, which we term the treatment success rate. Using programmatic data, we estimate how much this parameter has increased as a result of IMPACT TB in the implementation districts of Vietnam and Nepal and quantify additional efforts needed to eliminate transmission of TB in these countries by 2035.ResultsExtending the IMPACT TB programme to national coverage would lead to moderate decreases in TB incidence and would not be enough to interrupt transmission by 2035. Decreasing transmission sufficiently to bring the reproduction number (R0) below 1, would require a further intensification of current efforts, even at the sub-national level.ConclusionsActive case finding programmes are effective in reducing TB in the short term. However, interruption of transmission in high-burden countries, like Vietnam and Nepal, will require comprehensive incremental efforts. Complementary measures to reduce progression from infection to disease, and reactivation of latent infection, are needed to meet the WHO End TB incidence targets.

Dataset Information

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

Publications

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.

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