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Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era.


ABSTRACT: A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5?°C and 2?°C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68-616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5?°C or well below 2?°C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78-791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.

SUBMITTER: Wei YM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7156390 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era.

Wei Yi-Ming YM   Han Rong R   Wang Ce C   Yu Biying B   Liang Qiao-Mei QM   Yuan Xiao-Chen XC   Chang Junjie J   Zhao Qingyu Q   Liao Hua H   Tang Baojun B   Yan Jinyue J   Cheng Lijing L   Yang Zili Z  

Nature communications 20200414 1


A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the curren  ...[more]

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