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Cost-Effectiveness and National Effects of Initiating Colorectal Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Persons at Age 45 Years Instead of 50 Years.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND & AIMS:The American Cancer Society has recommended initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at age 45 years instead of 50 years. We estimated the cost effectiveness and national effects of adopting this recommendation. METHODS:We compared screening strategies and alternative resource allocations in a validated Markov model. We based national projections on screening participation rates by age and census data. RESULTS:Screening colonoscopy initiation at age 45 years instead of 50 years in 1000 persons averted 4 CRCs and 2 CRC deaths, gained 14 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost $33,900/QALY gained, and required 758 additional colonoscopies. These 758 colonoscopies could instead be used to screen 231 currently unscreened 55-year-old persons or 342 currently unscreened 65-year-old persons, through age 75 years. These alternatives averted 13-14 CRC cases and 6-7 CRC deaths and gained 27-28 discounted QALYs while saving $163,700-$445,800. Improving colonoscopy completion rates after abnormal results from a fecal immunochemical test yielded greater benefits and savings. Initiation of fecal immunochemical testing at age 45 years instead of 50 years cost $7700/QALY gained. Shifting current age-specific screening rates to 5 years earlier could avert 29,400 CRC cases and 11,100 CRC deaths over the next 5 years but would require 10.7 million additional colonoscopies and cost an incremental $10.4 billion. Improving screening rates to 80% in persons who are 50-75 years old would avert nearly 3-fold more CRC deaths at one third the incremental cost. CONCLUSIONS:In a Markov model analysis, we found that starting CRC screening at age 45 years is likely to be cost effective. However, greater benefit, at lower cost, could be achieved by increasing participation rates for unscreened older and higher-risk persons.

SUBMITTER: Ladabaum U

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7161092 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cost-Effectiveness and National Effects of Initiating Colorectal Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Persons at Age 45 Years Instead of 50 Years.

Ladabaum Uri U Mannalithara Ajitha A Meester Reinier G S RGS Gupta Samir S Schoen Robert E RE

Gastroenterology 20190328 1

<h4>Background & aims</h4>The American Cancer Society has recommended initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at age 45 years instead of 50 years. We estimated the cost effectiveness and national effects of adopting this recommendation.<h4>Methods</h4>We compared screening strategies and alternative resource allocations in a validated Markov model. We based national projections on screening participation rates by age and census data.<h4>Results</h4>Screening colonoscopy initiation at age 45 ...[more]

PMID: 30930021

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Project description:Background:In the United States, the routine age for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is 11 to 12 years, with catch-up vaccination through age 26 years for women and 21 years for men. U.S. vaccination policy on use of the 9-valent HPV vaccine in adult women and men is being reviewed. Objective:To evaluate the added population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of extending the current U.S. HPV vaccination program to women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years. Design:The analysis used HPV-ADVISE (Agent-based Dynamic model for VaccInation and Screening Evaluation), an individual-based transmission dynamic model of HPV infection and associated diseases, calibrated to age-specific U.S. data. Data Sources:Published data. Target Population:Women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years in the United States. Time Horizon:100 years. Perspective:Health care sector. Intervention:9-valent HPV vaccination. Outcome Measures:HPV-associated outcomes prevented and cost-effectiveness ratios. Results of Base-Case Analysis:The model predicts that the current U.S. HPV vaccination program will reduce the number of diagnoses of anogenital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or 3 and cases of cervical cancer and noncervical HPV-associated cancer by 82%, 80%, 59%, and 39%, respectively, over 100 years and is cost saving (vs. no vaccination). In contrast, extending vaccination to women and men aged 45 years is predicted to reduce these outcomes by an additional 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. Vaccinating women and men up to age 30, 40, and 45 years is predicted to cost $830 000, $1 843 000, and $1 471 000, respectively, per quality-adjusted life-year gained (vs. current vaccination). Results of Sensitivity Analysis:Results were most sensitive to assumptions about natural immunity and progression rates after infection, historical vaccination coverage, and vaccine efficacy. Limitation:Uncertainty about the proportion of HPV-associated disease due to infections after age 26 years and about the level of herd effects from the current HPV vaccination program. Conclusion:The current HPV vaccination program is predicted to be cost saving. Extending vaccination to older ages is predicted to produce small additional health benefits and result in substantially higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than the current recommendation. Primary Funding Source:Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Changing pneumococcal disease epidemiology due to childhood vaccination has prompted re-examination of US adult pneumococcal vaccination policies, as have considerations of greater pneumococcal disease incidence and higher prevalence of conditions that increase risk in underserved minority populations. Prior analyses suggest routine pneumococcal vaccination at age 50 could be considered, which could disproportionately benefit underserved populations. METHODS:A Markov cohort model estimated the cost-effectiveness of US pneumococcal vaccination policies in hypothetical 50-year-old underserved minority and general population cohorts. Strategies included receiving one or both available pneumococcal vaccines based on age- or chronic condition-specific criteria. US databases and medical literature data calibrated pneumococcal illness incidence, vaccine serotype distributions, age- and race-specific chronic condition distributions, and costs. Black population data were used as a proxy for underserved minorities. We took a US healthcare perspective, discounting at 3%/year. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed and scenarios modeling differing vaccine assumptions were examined. RESULTS:In both black and general population 50-year-olds, giving both pneumococcal vaccines to all 50-year-olds prevented the most disease, but cost >$250,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Current CDC recommendations (both vaccines for the immunocompromised, polysaccharide vaccine for other high-risk conditions) were economically favorable in either population when analyses assumed polysaccharide vaccine was ineffective against nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (NBP). If polysaccharide vaccine is effective against NBP or if less complex age-based vaccination recommendations result in increased vaccine uptake, giving polysaccharide vaccine to all 50-year-olds cost <$100,000/QALY; this effect was more pronounced in black cohorts. Results were robust in 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS:Despite changes in pneumococcal epidemiology, current CDC recommendations were favored in underserved minority and general population cohorts. Polysaccharide vaccine for all 50-year-olds could be considered under some vaccine uptake and effectiveness assumptions, particularly if mitigating racial health disparities in pneumococcal disease is a priority.

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Cost-Effectiveness and National Effects of Initiating Colorectal Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Persons at Age 45 Years Instead of 50 Years.

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Cost-Effectiveness and National Effects of Initiating Colorectal Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Persons at Age 45 Years Instead of 50 Years.

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