Dataset Information

Updated assessment of risks and benefits of dolutegravir versus efavirenz in new antiretroviral treatment initiators in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform treatment guidelines.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens.

Methods

We updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted.

Findings

Considering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain.

Interpretation

In the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Phillips AN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7167509 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe integrase inhibitor dolutegravir could have a major role in future antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in sub-Saharan Africa because of its high potency and barrier to resistance, good tolerability, and low cost, but there is uncertainty over appropriate policies for use relating to the potential for drug resistance spread and a possible increased risk of neural tube defects in infants if used in women at the time of conception. We used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART with the aim of informing policy makers on approaches to the use of dolutegravir that are likely to lead to the highest population health gains.MethodsWe used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults, which takes into account the effects of drug resistance and differential drug potency in determining viral suppression and clinical outcomes to compare predicted outcomes of alternative ART regimen policies. We calculated disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each policy, assuming that a woman having a child with a neural tube defect incurs an extra DALY per year for the remainder of the time horizon and accounting for mother-to-child transmission. We used a 20 year time horizon, a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted.FindingsThe greatest number of DALYs is predicted to be averted with use of a policy in which tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir is used in all people on ART, including switching to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir in those currently on ART, regardless of current viral load suppression and intention to have (more) children. This result was consistent in several sensitivity analyses. We predict that this policy would be cost-saving.InterpretationUsing a standard DALY framework to compare health outcomes from a public health perspective, the benefits of transition to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for all substantially outweighed the risks.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundDolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception.ObjectiveTo project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa.DesignModel of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach).Data sourcesPublished data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women).Target population3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children.Time horizon5 years.PerspectiveSocietal.InterventionEFV, DTG, and WHO approach.Outcome measuresDeaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs.Results of base-case analysisCompared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths).Results of sensitivity analysisWomen's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater.LimitationUncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses.ConclusionAlthough NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Global rollout of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been hampered in part by insufficient safety data in pregnancy. We compared birth outcomes among women initiating dolutegravir-based ART with those among women initiating efavirenz-based ART in pregnancy in Botswana. METHODS:In this observational study, we captured birth outcome data at eight government hospitals throughout Botswana (~45% of all deliveries in the country) in an ongoing study that started on Aug 15, 2014. In 2016, Botswana changed first-line ART from efavirenz-tenofovir-emtricitabine to dolutegravir-tenofovir-emtricitabine, including for pregnant women. This analysis includes women starting either efavirenz-based ART or dolutegravir-based ART during singleton pregnancy (regimen started and delivery occurring between Aug 15, 2014, and Aug 15, 2016, for efavirenz-based ART and between Nov 1, 2016, and Sept 30, 2017, for dolutegravir-based ART). We excluded births to mothers who had switched regimen or stopped ART. The primary outcomes were the combined endpoints of any adverse outcome (stillbirth, preterm birth [<37 weeks' gestation], small for gestational age [SGA; less than the tenth percentile of birthweight by gestational age], or neonatal death [within 28 days of age]) and severe adverse outcomes (stillbirth, neonatal death, very preterm birth [<32 weeks' gestation], and very SGA [less than the third percentile of birthweight by gestational age]). We fitted log-binomial regression models, controlling for maternal age, gravidity, and education, to estimate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs). FINDINGS:Our analysis included 1729 pregnant women who initiated dolutegravir-based ART and 4593 who initiated efavirenz-based ART. The risk for any adverse birth outcome among women on dolutegravir versus efavirenz was similar (33·2% vs 35·0%; aRR 0·95, 95% CI 0·88-1·03), as was the risk of any severe birth outcome (10·7% vs 11·3%; 0·94, 0·81-1·11). We found no significant differences by regimen in the individual outcomes of stillbirth, neonatal death, preterm birth, very preterm birth, SGA, or very SGA. INTERPRETATION:Adverse birth outcomes were similar among pregnant women who initiated dolutegravir-based and efavirenz-based ART. Dolutegravir-based ART can be safely initiated in pregnancy. FUNDING:National Institutes of Health.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2019, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended Dolutegravir (DTG) as the preferred first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all persons with HIV. ART regimen switches may affect HIV treatment adherence. We sought to describe patient experiences switching from EFV to DTG-based ART in Kampala, Uganda.MethodsBetween July and September 2019, we purposively sampled adults living with HIV who had switched to DTG at the Infectious Diseases Institute HIV clinic. We conducted in-depth interviews with adults who switched to DTG, to explore their preparation to switch and experiences on DTG. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically using Atlas ti version 8 software.ResultsWe interviewed 25 adults: 18 (72%) were women, and the median age was 35 years (interquartile range [IQR] 30-40). Median length on ART before switching to DTG was 67 months (IQR 51-125). Duration on DTG after switching was 16 months (IQR 10-18). Participants reported accepting provider recommendations to switch to DTG mainly because they anticipated that swallowing a smaller pill once a day would be more convenient. While most participants initially felt uncertain about drug switching, their providers offer of frequent appointments and a toll-free number to call in the event of side effects allayed their anxiety. At the same time, participants said they felt rushed to switch to the new ART regimen considering that they had been on their previous regimen(s) for several years and the switch to DTG happened during a routine visit when they had expected their regular prescription. Some participants felt unprepared for new adverse events associated with DTG and for the abrupt change in treatment schedule. Most participants said they needed additional support from their health providers before and after switching to DTG.Conclusion and recommendationsAdults living with HIV stable on an EFV-based regimen but were switched to DTG in a program-wide policy change found the duration between counselling and drug switching inadequate. DTG was nonetheless largely preferred because of the small pill size, once daily dosing, and absence of EFV-like side effects. Community-engaged research is needed to devise acceptable ways to prepare participants for switching ART at scale.

Project description:BackgroundRandomized-trial data on the risks and benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as compared with zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine to prevent transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in HIV-infected pregnant women with high CD4 counts are lacking.MethodsWe randomly assigned HIV-infected women at 14 or more weeks of gestation with CD4 counts of at least 350 cells per cubic millimeter to zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine plus a 1-to-2-week postpartum "tail" of tenofovir and emtricitabine (zidovudine alone); zidovudine, lamivudine, and lopinavir-ritonavir (zidovudine-based ART); or tenofovir, emtricitabine, and lopinavir-ritonavir (tenofovir-based ART). The primary outcomes were HIV transmission at 1 week of age in the infant and maternal and infant safety.ResultsThe median CD4 count was 530 cells per cubic millimeter among 3490 primarily black African HIV-infected women enrolled at a median of 26 weeks of gestation (interquartile range, 21 to 30). The rate of transmission was significantly lower with ART than with zidovudine alone (0.5% in the combined ART groups vs. 1.8%; difference, -1.3 percentage points; repeated confidence interval, -2.1 to -0.4). However, the rate of maternal grade 2 to 4 adverse events was significantly higher with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (21.1% vs. 17.3%, P=0.008), and the rate of grade 2 to 4 abnormal blood chemical values was higher with tenofovir-based ART than with zidovudine alone (2.9% vs. 0.8%, P=0.03). Adverse events did not differ significantly between the ART groups (P>0.99). A birth weight of less than 2500 g was more frequent with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (23.0% vs. 12.0%, P<0.001) and was more frequent with tenofovir-based ART than with zidovudine alone (16.9% vs. 8.9%, P=0.004); preterm delivery before 37 weeks was more frequent with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (20.5% vs. 13.1%, P<0.001). Tenofovir-based ART was associated with higher rates than zidovudine-based ART of very preterm delivery before 34 weeks (6.0% vs. 2.6%, P=0.04) and early infant death (4.4% vs. 0.6%, P=0.001), but there were no significant differences between tenofovir-based ART and zidovudine alone (P=0.10 and P=0.43). The rate of HIV-free survival was highest among infants whose mothers received zidovudine-based ART.ConclusionsAntenatal ART resulted in significantly lower rates of early HIV transmission than zidovudine alone but a higher risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; PROMISE ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01061151 and NCT01253538 .).

Project description:IntroductionEvidence on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes is limited for new antiretroviral therapies (ART). Dolutegravir-based treatment is being rolled out as the preferred first-line treatment for HIV in many low- and middle-income countries. We compared HRQoL between treatment-naïve pregnant women randomized to dolutegravir- or efavirenz-based ART in a clinical trial in Uganda and South Africa.MethodsWe gathered HRQoL data from 203 pregnant women of mean age 28 years, randomized to either dolutegravir- or efavirenz-based ART. We used the medical outcomes study-HIV health survey at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks between years 2018 and 2019. Physical health summary (PHS) and mental health summary (MHS) scores were the primary study outcomes, while the 11 MOS-HIV subscales were secondary outcomes. We applied mixed model analysis to estimate differences within and between-treatment groups. Multivariate regression analysis was included to identify associations between primary outcomes and selected variables.ResultsAt 24 weeks postpartum, HRQoL scores increased from baseline in both treatment arms: PHS (10.40, 95% CI 9.24, 11.55) and MHS (9.23, 95% CI 7.35, 11.10) for dolutegravir-based ART; PHS (10.24, 95% CI 9.10, 11.38) and MHS (7.54, 95% CI 5.66, 9.42) for efavirenz-based ART. Increased scores for all secondary outcomes were significant at p < 0.0001. At 48 weeks, improvements remained significant for primary outcomes within group comparison. Estimated difference in PHS were higher in the dolutegravir-based arm, while increases in MHS were more for women in the efavirenz-based armat 24 and 48 weeks. No significant differences were noted for corresponding PHS scores at these time points compared between groups. Differences between arms were observed in two secondary outcomes: role function (1.11, 95% CI 0.08, 2.13), p = 0.034 and physical function outcomes (2.97, 95% CI 1.20, 4.73), p = 0.001. In the multivariate analysis, internet access was associated with higher PHS scores while owning a bank account, using the internet and longer treatment duration were associated with an increase in MHS scores.ConclusionWe found no important differences in HRQoL outcomes among HIV-positive women started on dolutegravir relative to efavirenz in late pregnancy. Increases in HRQoL in the first year after delivery provide additional support for the initiation of ART in HIV-positive women presenting late in pregnancy. Trial Registration Clinical Trial Number: NCT03249181.