Long-term blood pressure trajectories and incident atrial fibrillation in women and men: the Tromso Study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Aims
To explore sex-specific associations between long-term individual blood pressure (BP) patterns and risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population.Methods and results
Blood pressure was measured in 8376 women and 7670 men who attended at least two of the three population-based Tromsø Study surveys conducted in 1986-87, 1994-95, and 2001. Participants were followed for incident AF throughout 2013. Latent mixed modelling was used to identify long-term trajectories of systolic BP and hypertension. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between the identified trajectories and incident AF. Elevated systolic BP throughout the exposure period (1986-2001) independently and differentially increased risk of AF in women and men. In women, having elevated systolic BP trajectories doubled AF risk compared to having persistently low levels, irrespective of whether systolic BP increased, decreased, or was persistently high over time, with hazard ratios of 1.88 (95% confidence interval 1.37-2.58), 2.32 (1.61-3.35), and 1.94 (1.28-2.94), respectively. In men, those with elevated systolic BP that continued to increase over time had a 50% increased AF risk: 1.51 (1.09-2.10). When compared to those persistently normotensive, women developing hypertension during the exposure period, and women and men with hypertension throughout the exposure period had 1.40 (1.06-1.86), 2.75 (1.99-3.80), and 1.36 (1.10-1.68) times increased risk of AF, respectively.Conclusion
Long-term BP and hypertension trajectories were associated with increased incidence of AF in both women and men, but the associations were stronger in women.
SUBMITTER: Sharashova E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7174044 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:The influence of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well studied among initially healthy, middle-aged women.A total of 34,221 women participating in the Women's Health Study were prospectively followed up for incident AF. The risk of AF across categories of systolic and diastolic BP was compared by use of Cox proportional-hazards models. During 12.4 years of follow-up, 644 incident AF events occurred. Using BP measurements at baseline, we discovered that the long-term risk of AF was significantly increased across categories of systolic and diastolic BP. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for systolic BP categories (<120, 120 to 129, 130 to 139, 140 to 159, and > or =160 mm Hg) were 1.0, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.28), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.63), 1.56 (95% CI, 1.22 to 2.01), and 2.74 (95% CI, 1.77 to 4.22) (P for trend <0.0001). Adjusted hazard ratios across baseline diastolic BP categories (<65, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85 to 89, 90 to 94, and > or =95 mm Hg) were 1.0, 1.17 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.69), 1.18 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.65), 1.53 (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.23), 1.35 (95% CI, 0.82 to 2.22), and 2.15 (95% CI, 1.21 to 3.84) (P for trend=0.004). When BP changes over time were accounted for in updated models, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 1.0, 1.14 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.46), 1.37 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.76), 1.71 (95% CI, 1.33 to 2.21), and 2.21 (95% CI, 1.45 to 3.36) (P for trend <0.0001) for systolic BP categories and 1.0, 1.12 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.52), 1.13 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.52), 1.30 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.88), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.88), and 1.54 (95% CI, 0.75 to 3.14) (P for trend=0.026) for diastolic BP categories.In this large cohort of initially healthy women, BP was strongly associated with incident AF, and systolic BP was a better predictor than diastolic BP. Systolic BP levels within the nonhypertensive range were independently associated with incident AF even after BP changes over time were taken into account.
| S-EPMC2737699 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectivesWe examined the association of predialysis systolic and diastolic BP and intradialytic hypotension with incident atrial fibrillation in older patients initiating hemodialysis.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe used the US Renal Data System linked to the records of a large dialysis provider to identify patients aged ≥67 years initiating hemodialysis between January 2006 and October 2011. We examined quarterly average predialysis systolic BP, diastolic BP, and proportion of sessions with intradialytic hypotension (i.e., nadir systolic BP <90 mm Hg). We applied an extended Cox model to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of each exposure with incident atrial fibrillation.ResultsAmong 17,003 patients, 3785 developed atrial fibrillation. When comparing predialysis systolic BP to a fixed reference of 140 mm Hg, lower predialysis systolic BP was associated with a higher hazard of atrial fibrillation, whereas higher systolic BP was associated with a lower hazard of atrial fibrillation. When comparing across a range of systolic BP for two hypothetical patients with similar measured covariates, the association varied by mean systolic BP: at systolic BP 190 mm Hg, each 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP was associated with lower atrial fibrillation hazard (HR, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.00), whereas at systolic BP 140 mm Hg, a 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP was associated with a higher atrial fibrillation hazard (HR, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.14). Lower diastolic BP was associated with higher atrial fibrillation hazards. Intradialytic hypotension was weakly associated with atrial fibrillation.ConclusionsIn this observational study of older patients initiating hemodialysis, lower predialysis systolic BP and diastolic BP were associated with higher incidence of atrial fibrillation.
| S-EPMC6625626 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this study was to explore sex-specific associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP), hypertension, and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) subtypes, including paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF, in a general population. A total of 13,137 women and 11,667 men who participated in the fourth survey of the Tromsø Study (1994-1995) were followed up for incident AF until the end of 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted using fractional polynomials for SBP to provide sex- and AF-subtype-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for SBP. An SBP of 120 mmHg was used as the reference. Models were adjusted for other cardiovascular risk factors. Over a mean follow-up of 17.6 ± 6.6 years, incident AF occurred in 914 (7.0%) women (501 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 413 with permanent AF) and 1104 (9.5%) men (606 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 498 with permanent AF). In women, an SBP of 180 mmHg was associated with an HR of 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60-2.76) for paroxysmal/persistent AF and an HR of 1.80 (95% CI 1.33-2.44) for permanent AF. In men, an SBP of 180 mmHg was associated with an HR of 1.90 (95% CI 1.46-2.46) for paroxysmal/persistent AF, while there was no association with the risk of permanent AF. In conclusion, increasing SBP was associated with an increased risk of both paroxysmal/persistent AF and permanent AF in women, but only paroxysmal/persistent AF in men. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific risk stratification and optimizing blood pressure management for the prevention of AF subtypes in clinical practice.
| S-EPMC8038622 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Psychological stress has been reported as a possible trigger of atrial fibrillation (AF). No studies have investigated whether any association between stress and AF could be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF (AF-genetic risk score (AF-GRS)). 8765 men and 13,543 women from the Malmö Diet Cancer Study, a population-based cohort, were included in the analyses. A variable representing stress was constructed from questions measuring job strain, and from one question assessing non-occupational stress. Cox proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for known covariates of AF. Mean follow-up times and number of recorded incident AF were 14.2 years and 1116 events for men, and 15.1 years and 932 events for women. Among women, high stress was associated with AF in the age adjusted model (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.47) but not following multivariable adjustment (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.95-1.39). Stress was not associated with incident AF in men. AF-GRS was significantly associated with incident AF for both genders. Stress did not interact significantly with genetic susceptibility to AF in men or women. Chronic stress is not associated with long-term incident hospital diagnosed AF. This association does not appear to be modified by genetic susceptibility to AF.
| S-EPMC5307347 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:There are no proven strategies to prevent atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). We compared standard blood pressure (BP) lowering vs. intensive BP lowering in reducing incidence of AF or P-wave indices (PWI-ECG markers of left atrial abnormality that are considered intermediate phenotypes of AF) in patients with T2DM. METHODS:We analyzed data from the ACCORD BP trial-a randomized controlled nonblinded trial (2001-2009) which randomized patients with T2DM and systolic BP (SBP) 130-180mm Hg on ?3 antihypertensive medications aged 40-79 years with cardiovascular disease (CVD) or aged 55-79 years with subclinical CVD or ?2 CVD risk factors to standard BP lowering (SBP <140mm Hg) vs. intensive BP lowering (SBP <120mm Hg). The primary outcome was a composite of incident AF and PWI. RESULTS:Data from 3,087 participants (mean age, 62.2 years; women, 48.2%; non-White, 39.2%) were analyzed. During a mean follow-up of 4.4 years, the primary outcome occurred in 1,063 participants (incidence rate, 84.5 per 1,000 person-years in the standard-therapy group vs. 73.9 per 1,000 person-years in the intensive-therapy group). The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of intensive-therapy group for the primary outcome and for incident PWI alone were 0.87 (0.77-0.98), P = 0.02 and 0.87 (0.76-0.98), P = 0.02, respectively. The effect of intensive therapy on the incidence of AF alone did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS:In patients with T2DM, intensive BP lowering reduces the incidence of the composite outcome of AF and PWI, suggesting a potential benefit from stringent BP control in patients with T2DM. clinical trials registration Trial Number NCT00000620.
| S-EPMC5055733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIt is somewhat controversial whether caffeine consumption is associated with an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF).ObjectiveWe prospectively assessed the relation between caffeine intake and incident AF.DesignA total of 33,638 initially healthy women who participated in the Women's Health Study and who were gt 45 y of age and free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline were prospectively followed for incident AF from 1993 to 2 March 2009. All women provided information on caffeine intake via food-frequency questionnaires at baseline and in 2004.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 14.4 y (interquartile range: 13.8-14.8 y), 945 AF events occurred. Median caffeine intakes across increasing quintiles of caffeine intake were 22, 135, 285, 402, and 656 mg/d, respectively. Age-adjusted incidence rates of AF across increasing quintiles of caffeine intake were 2.15, 1.89, 2.01, 2.24, and 2.04 events, respectively, per 1000 person-years of follow-up. In Cox proportional hazards models updated in 2004 by using time-varying covariates, the corresponding multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.0, 0.88 (0.72, 1.06), 0.78 (0.64, 0.95), 0.96 (0.79, 1.16), and 0.89 (0.73, 1.09) (P for linear trend: 0.45). None of the individual components of caffeine intake (coffee, tea, cola, and chocolate) were significantly associated with incident AF.ConclusionsIn this large cohort of initially healthy women, elevated caffeine consumption was not associated with an increased risk of incident AF. Therefore, our data suggest that elevated caffeine consumption does not contribute to the increasing burden of AF in the population. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000479.
| S-EPMC2921535 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAnthropometric factors are reported to be risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unclear whether weight change in mid-life is associated with AF. We aimed to study the possible associations of weight, height, and weight change with the risk of incident AF in men and women.MethodsOur study cohort included 108 417 persons (51% women) who participated in a population-based health examination in northern Sweden at 30, 40, 50, or 60 years of age. The health examination included weight and height measurement and collection of data regarding cardiovascular risk factors. Within this cohort, 40 275 participants underwent two health examinations with a 10-year interval. We identified cases with a first-ever diagnosis of AF through the Swedish National Patient Registry.ResultsDuring a total follow-up of 1 469 820 person-years, 5154 participants developed incident AF. The mean age at inclusion was 46.3 years, and mean age at AF diagnosis was 66.6 years. After adjustment for potential confounders, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and body surface area (BSA) were positively associated with risk of incident AF in both men and women. Among participants who underwent two health examinations 10 years apart, 1142 persons developed AF. The mean weight change from baseline was a gain of 4.8%. Weight gain or weight loss was not significantly associated with risk of incident AF.ConclusionsHeight, weight, BMI, and BSA showed positive associations with risk of incident AF in both men and women. Midlife weight change was not significantly associated with AF risk.
| S-EPMC7733566 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Physical activity (PA) is well known to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that regular PA, possibly acting through reductions in blood pressure and body mass index (BMI), would reduce the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in women.We prospectively followed 34 759 women who reported their leisure-time PA levels for the occurrence of AF. We estimated energy expenditure in metabolic equivalent (MET)-h/wk and validated self-reported AF with medical records. The mean (SD) age of the 34 759 participants was 54.6 (7.0) years, the mean BMI was 26.0 (5.0) kg/m(2), 26.5% had hypertension, and the median (IQR) PA was 8.4 (2.8, 20.4) MET-h/wk. After a median of 14.4 years of observation, 968 women had development of AF. In age-, cholesterol-, smoking-, alcohol-, diabetes-, and race-adjusted models, increasing quintiles of PA were associated with reduced risks of AF (hazard ratio for extreme quintiles, 0.82; 0.66 to 1.01; P trend=0.007 over quintiles). Although this association was not substantially different after adjusting for hypertension (0.87; 0.70 to 1.07; P trend 0.02), it was attenuated after adjustment for BMI (0.99; 0.80 to 1.23; P trend=0.22). Women who achieved the federal government's recommendation of 7.5 MET-h/wk of PA were at reduced risk of AF compared with those who did not (0.86; 0.75 to 0.98; P=0.03). This association was also attenuated by BMI (0.96; 0.84 to 1.10; P=0.57).In middle-aged women, physical activity was associated with a modestly reduced risk of AF. However, this relationship was no longer significant after controlling for body mass index.
| S-EPMC3097307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Observational studies have shown an association between hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF). Aggressive blood pressure management in patients with known AF reduces overall arrhythmia burden, but it remains unclear whether hypertension is causative for AF. To address this question, this study explored the relationship between genetic predictors of blood pressure and risk of AF. We secondarily explored the relationship between genetically proxied use of antihypertensive drugs and risk of AF. Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed using an inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis with weighted median Mendelian randomization and Egger intercept tests performed as sensitivity analyses. Summary statistics for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure were obtained from the International Consortium of Blood Pressure and the UK Biobank discovery analysis and AF from the 2018 Atrial Fibrillation Genetics Consortium multiethnic genome-wide association studies. Increases in genetically proxied systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, or pulse pressure by 10 mm Hg were associated with increased odds of AF (systolic blood pressure: odds ratio [OR], 1.17 [95% CI, 1.11-1.22]; P=1×10-11; diastolic blood pressure: OR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.16-1.35]; P=3×10-8; pulse pressure: OR, 1.1 [95% CI, 1.0-1.2]; P=0.05). Decreases in systolic blood pressure by 10 mm Hg estimated by genetic proxies of antihypertensive medications showed calcium channel blockers (OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.57-0.76]; P=8×10-9) and β-blockers (OR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.46-0.81]; P=6×10-4) decreased the risk of AF. Blood pressure-increasing genetic variants were associated with increased risk of AF, consistent with a causal relationship between blood pressure and AF. These data support the concept that blood pressure reduction with calcium channel blockade or β-blockade could reduce the risk of AF.
| S-EPMC7803440 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Previous studies have documented a high prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Central sleep apnea (CSA) has been associated with AF in patients with heart failure. However, data from prospective cohorts are sparse and few studies have distinguished the associations of obstructive sleep apnea from CSA with AF in population studies. We assessed the association of obstructive sleep apnea and CSA with incident AF among 2912 individuals without a history of AF in the SHHS (Sleep Heart Health Study), a prospective, community-based study of existing ("parent") cohort studies designed to evaluate the cardiovascular consequences of sleep disordered breathing. Incident AF was documented by 12-lead ECG or assessed by the parent cohort. obstructive sleep apnea was defined by the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index (OAHI). CSA was defined by a central apnea index ≥5 or the presence of Cheyne Stokes Respiration. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between sleep disordered breathing and incident AF. Over a mean of 5.3 years of follow-up, 338 cases of incident AF were observed. CSA was a predictor of incident AF in all adjusted models and was associated with 2- to 3-fold increased odds of developing AF (central apnea index ≥5 odds ratio [OR], 3.00, 1.40-6.44; Cheyne-Stokes respiration OR, 1.83, 0.95-3.54; CSA or Cheyne-Stokes respiration OR, 2.00, 1.16-3.44). In contrast, OAHI was not associated with incident AF (OAHI per 5 unit increase OR, 0.97, 0.91-1.03; OAHI 5 to <15 OR, 0.84, 0.59-1.17; OAHI 15 to <30 OR, 0.93, 0.60-1.45; OAHI ≥30 OR, 0.76, 0.42-1.36). In a prospective, community-based cohort, CSA was associated with incident AF, even after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors.
| S-EPMC5586257 | biostudies-literature