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Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020.


ABSTRACT: Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case-age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.

SUBMITTER: Etard JF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7175651 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020.

Etard Jean-François JF   Vanhems Philippe P   Atlani-Duault Laëtitia L   Ecochard René R  

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20200401 15


Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case-age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions. ...[more]

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