Dataset Information

Prediction of Intracranial Aneurysm Risk using Machine Learning.

ABSTRACT: An efficient method for identifying subjects at high risk of an intracranial aneurysm (IA) is warranted to provide adequate radiological screening guidelines and effectively allocate medical resources. We developed a model for pre-diagnosis IA prediction using a national claims database and health examination records. Data from the National Health Screening Program in Korea were utilized as input for several machine learning algorithms: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), scalable tree boosting system (XGB), and deep neural networks (DNN). Algorithm performance was evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) using different test data from that employed for model training. Five risk groups were classified in ascending order of risk using model prediction probabilities. Incidence rate ratios between the lowest- and highest-risk groups were then compared. The XGB model produced the best IA risk prediction (AUROC of 0.765) and predicted the lowest IA incidence (3.20) in the lowest-risk group, whereas the RF model predicted the highest IA incidence (161.34) in the highest-risk group. The incidence rate ratios between the lowest- and highest-risk groups were 49.85, 35.85, 34.90, and 30.26 for the XGB, LR, DNN, and RF models, respectively. The developed prediction model can aid future IA screening strategies.

SUBMITTER: Heo J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7181629 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Intracranial Aneurysm Risk using Machine Learning.

Heo Jaehyuk J Park Sang Jun SJ Kang Si-Hyuck SH Oh Chang Wan CW Bang Jae Seung JS Kim Tackeun T

Scientific reports 20200424 1

An efficient method for identifying subjects at high risk of an intracranial aneurysm (IA) is warranted to provide adequate radiological screening guidelines and effectively allocate medical resources. We developed a model for pre-diagnosis IA prediction using a national claims database and health examination records. Data from the National Health Screening Program in Korea were utilized as input for several machine learning algorithms: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), scalable tree ...[more]

PMID: 32332844

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Project description:OBJECTIVEFlow diverters (FDs) are designed to occlude intracranial aneurysms (IAs) while preserving flow to essential arteries. Incomplete occlusion exposes patients to risks of thromboembolic complications and rupture. A priori assessment of FD treatment outcome could enable treatment optimization leading to better outcomes. To that end, the authors applied image-based computational analysis to clinically FD-treated aneurysms to extract information regarding morphology, pre- and post-treatment hemodynamics, and FD-device characteristics and then used these parameters to train machine learning algorithms to predict 6-month clinical outcomes after FD treatment.METHODSData were retrospectively collected for 84 FD-treated sidewall aneurysms in 80 patients. Based on 6-month angiographic outcomes, IAs were classified as occluded (n = 63) or residual (incomplete occlusion, n = 21). For each case, the authors modeled FD deployment using a fast virtual stenting algorithm and hemodynamics using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Sixteen morphological, hemodynamic, and FD-based parameters were calculated for each aneurysm. Aneurysms were randomly assigned to a training or testing cohort in approximately a 3:1 ratio. The Student t-test and Mann-Whitney U-test were performed on data from the training cohort to identify significant parameters distinguishing the occluded from residual groups. Predictive models were trained using 4 types of supervised machine learning algorithms: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM; linear and Gaussian kernels), K-nearest neighbor, and neural network (NN). In the testing cohort, the authors compared outcome prediction by each model trained using all parameters versus only the significant parameters.RESULTSThe training cohort (n = 64) consisted of 48 occluded and 16 residual aneurysms and the testing cohort (n = 20) consisted of 15 occluded and 5 residual aneurysms. Significance tests yielded 2 morphological (ostium ratio and neck ratio) and 3 hemodynamic (pre-treatment inflow rate, post-treatment inflow rate, and post-treatment aneurysm averaged velocity) discriminants between the occluded (good-outcome) and the residual (bad-outcome) group. In both training and testing, all the models trained using all 16 parameters performed better than all the models trained using only the 5 significant parameters. Among the all-parameter models, NN (AUC = 0.967) performed the best during training, followed by LR and linear SVM (AUC = 0.941 and 0.914, respectively). During testing, NN and Gaussian-SVM models had the highest accuracy (90%) in predicting occlusion outcome.CONCLUSIONSNN and Gaussian-SVM models incorporating all 16 morphological, hemodynamic, and FD-related parameters predicted 6-month occlusion outcome of FD treatment with 90% accuracy. More robust models using the computational workflow and machine learning could be trained on larger patient databases toward clinical use in patient-specific treatment planning and optimization.

Project description:ObjectivesElevated intracranial pressure (ICP) is a potentially devastating complication of neurologic injury. Developing an ICP prediction algorithm to help the clinician adjust treatments and potentially prevent elevated ICP episodes.DesignRetrospective study.SettingThree hundred thirty-five ICUs at 208 hospitals in the United States.SubjectsAdults patients from the electronic ICU (eICU) Collaborative Research Database was used to train an ensemble machine learning model to predict the ICP 30 minutes in the future. Predictive performance was evaluated using a left-out test dataset and externally evaluated on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) Matched Waveform Database.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsPredictors included age, assigned sex, laboratories, medications and infusions, input/output, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) components, and time-series vitals (heart rate, ICP, mean arterial pressure, respiratory rate, and temperature). Each patient ICU stay was divided into successive 95-minute timeblocks. For each timeblock, the model was trained on nontime-varying covariates as well as on 12 observations of time-varying covariates at 5-minute intervals and asked to predict the 5-minute median ICP 30 minutes after the last observed ICP value. Data from 931 patients with ICP monitoring in the eICU dataset were extracted (46,207 timeblocks). The root mean squared error was 4.51 mm Hg in the eICU test set and 3.56 mm Hg in the MIMIC-III dataset. The most important variables driving ICP prediction were previous ICP history, patients' temperature, weight, serum creatinine, age, GCS, and hemodynamic parameters.ConclusionsIntraCranial pressure prediction AlgoRithm using machinE learning, an ensemble machine learning model, trained to predict the ICP of a patient 30 minutes in the future based on baseline characteristics and vitals data from the past hour showed promising predictive performance including in an external validation dataset.

Project description:Background and Purpose: Precisely assessing the likelihood of an intracranial aneurysm rupturing is critical for guiding clinical decision-making. The objective of this study is to construct and validate a deep learning framework utilizing point clouds to forecast the likelihood of aneurysm rupturing. Methods: The dataset included in this study consisted of a total of 623 aneurysms, with 211 of them classified as ruptured and 412 as unruptured, which were obtained from two separate projects within the AneuX morphology database. The HUG project, which included 124 ruptured aneurysms and 340 unruptured aneurysms, was used to train and internally validate the model. For external validation, another project named @neurIST was used, which included 87 ruptured and 72 unruptured aneurysms. A standardized method was employed to isolate aneurysms and a segment of their parent vessels from the original 3D vessel models. These models were then converted into a point cloud format using open3d package to facilitate training of the deep learning network. The PointNet++ architecture was utilized to process the models and generate risk scores through a softmax layer. Finally, two models, the dome and cut1 model, were established and then subjected to a comprehensive comparison of statistical indices with the LASSO regression model built by the dataset authors. Results: The cut1 model outperformed the dome model in the 5-fold cross-validation, with the mean AUC values of 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. Furthermore, the cut1 model beat the morphology-based LASSO regression model with an AUC of 0.82. However, as the original dataset authors stated, we observed potential generalizability concerns when applying trained models to datasets with different selection biases. Nevertheless, our method outperformed the LASSO regression model in terms of generalizability, with an AUC of 0.71 versus 0.67. Conclusion: The point cloud, as a 3D visualization technique for intracranial aneurysms, can effectively capture the spatial contour and morphological aspects of aneurysms. More structural features between the aneurysm and its parent vessels can be exposed by keeping a portion of the parent vessels, enhancing the model's performance. The point cloud-based deep learning model exhibited good performance in predicting rupture risk while also facing challenges in generalizability.

Project description:The ideal Intracranial pressure (ICP) estimation method should be accurate, reliable, cost-effective, compact, and associated with minimal morbidity/mortality. To this end several described non-invasive methods in ICP estimation have yielded promising results, however the reliability of these techniques have yet to supersede invasive methods of ICP measurement. Over several publications, we described a novel imaging method of Modified Photoplethysmography in the evaluation of the retinal vascular pulse parameters decomposed in the Fourier domain, which enables computationally efficient information filtering of the retinal vascular pulse wave. We applied this method in a population of 21 subjects undergoing lumbar puncture manometry. A regression model was derived by applying an Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB) machine learning algorithm using retinal vascular pulse harmonic regression waveform amplitude (HRWa), first and second harmonic cosine and sine coefficients (an1,2, bn1,2) among other features. Gain and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values ranked feature importance in the model. Agreement between the predicted ICP mean, median and peak density with measured ICP was assessed using Bland-Altman bias±standard error. Feature gain of intraocular pressure (IOPi) (arterial = 0.6092, venous = 0.5476), and of the Fourier coefficients, an1 (arterial = 0.1000, venous = 0.1024) ranked highest in the XGB model for both vascular systems. The arterial model SHAP values demonstrated the importance of the laterality of the tested eye (1.2477), which was less prominent in the venous model (0.8710). External validation was achieved using seven hold-out test cases, where the median venous predicted ICP showed better agreement with measured ICP. Although the Bland-Altman bias from the venous model (0.034±1.8013 cm water (p<0.99)) was lower compared to that of the arterial model (0.139±1.6545 cm water (p<0.94)), the arterial model provided a potential avenue for internal validation of the prediction. This approach can potentially be integrated into a neurological clinical decision algorithm to evaluate the indication for lumbar puncture.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Intracranial Aneurysm Risk using Machine Learning.

Publications

Prediction of Intracranial Aneurysm Risk using Machine Learning.

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