Dataset Information

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.

ABSTRACT: Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area- and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.

SUBMITTER: Melin M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7181731 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.

Melin Markus M Mehtätalo Lauri L Helle Pekka P Ikonen Katja K Packalen Tuula T

Scientific reports 20200424 1

Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers ...[more]

PMID: 32332914

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Project description:BackgroundThere is so far very little data on autosomal nucleotide diversity in birds, except for data from the domesticated chicken and some passerines species. Estimates of nucleotide diversity reported so far in birds have been high (approximately 10(-3)) and a likely explanation for this is the generally higher effective population sizes compared to mammals. In this study, the level of nucleotide diversity has been examined in the willow grouse, a non-domesticated bird species from the order Galliformes, which also holds the chicken. The willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has an almost circumpolar distribution but is absent from Greenland and the north Atlantic islands. It primarily inhabits tundra, forest edge habitats and sub-alpine vegetation. Willow grouse are hunted throughout its range, and regionally it is a game bird of great cultural and economical importance.ResultsWe sequenced 18 autosomal protein coding loci from approximately 15-18 individuals per population. We found a total of 127 SNP's, which corresponds to 1 SNP every 51 bp. 26 SNP's were amino acid replacement substitutions. Total nucleotide diversity (pit) was between 1.30 x 10(-4) and 7.66 x 10(-3) (average pi(t) = 2.72 x 10(-3) +/- 2.06 x 10(-3)) and silent nucleotide diversity varied between 4.20 x 10(-4) and 2.76 x 10(-2) (average pi(S) = 9.22 x 10(-3) +/- 7.43 x 10(-4)). The synonymous diversity is approximately 20 times higher than in humans and two times higher than in chicken. Non-synonymous diversity was on average 18 times lower than the synonymous diversity and varied between 0 and 4.90 x 10(-3) (average pi(a) = 5.08 x 10(-4) +/- 7.43 x 10(3)), which suggest that purifying selection is strong in these genes. F(ST) values based on synonymous SNP's varied between -5.60 x 10(-4) and 0.20 among loci and revealed low levels of differentiation among the four localities, with an overall value of F(ST) = 0.03 (95% CI: 0.006 - 0.057) over 60 unlinked loci. Non-synonymous SNP's gave similar results. Low levels of linkage disequilibrium were observed within genes, with an average r2 = 0.084 +/- 0.110, which is expected for a large outbred population with no population differentiation. The mean per site per generation recombination parameter (rho) was comparably high (0.028 +/- 0.018), indicating high recombination rates in these genes.ConclusionWe found unusually high levels of nucleotide diversity in the Scandinavian willow grouse as well as very little population structure among localities with up to 1647 km distance. There are also low levels of linkage disequilibrium within the genes and the population recombination rate is high, which is indicative of an old panmictic population, where recombination has had time to break up any haplotype blocks. The non-synonymous nucleotide diversity is low compared with the silent, which is in agreement with effective purifying selection, possibly due to the large effective population size.

Project description:Knowledge of the temporal variation in reproductive success and its key driving factors is crucial in predicting animal population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of a range of explanatory factors operating simultaneously on the same population over a long period. Based on 41 years of monitoring (1979-2019), we tested prevailing hypotheses about drivers of annual variation in breeding success in two sympatric species of boreal forest grouse-the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the black grouse (T. tetrix)-in a 45 km2 boreal forest landscape. From counts in early August, we measured breeding success (chicks/hen) along with potential determining factors. We formulated five main hypotheses on causes of variation (hen condition, chick weather, chick food, predation, demographic characteristics) and derived 13 associated explanatory variables for analysis. We first tested the five hypotheses separately and then used model selection (AICc) to rank the best predictive models irrespective of hypotheses. Lastly, we used path analysis to illuminate potential causal relationships. Barring demographic characteristics, all hypotheses were supported, most strongly for chick food and predation. Among predictor variables, chick food (insect larvae and bilberry fruit crops), vole and fox abundances, the winter-NAO index, and temperature after hatching, had the strongest effect sizes in both species. Precipitation after hatching had no detectable effect. Model selection indicated bottom-up factors to be more important than predation, but confounding complicated interpretation. Path analysis suggested that the high explanatory power of bilberry fruiting was due not only to its direct positive effect on chick food quality but also to an indirect positive effect on vole abundance, which buffers predation. The two components of breeding success-proportion of hens with broods and number of chicks per brood-were uncorrelated, the former having the strongest effect. The two components had different ecological correlates that often varied asynchronously, resulting in overall breeding success fluctuating around low to moderate levels. Our study highlights the complexity of key explanatory drivers and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of breeding success. Although chick food appeared to equal or surpass predation in explaining the annual variation in breeding success, predation may still be the overall limiting factor. Comparative and experimental studies of confounded variables (bilberry fruiting, voles, and larvae) are needed to disentangle causes of variation in breeding success of boreal forest grouse.

Dataset Information

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.

Publications

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.

Similar Datasets

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