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Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resource utilization.

ABSTRACT: Background:The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has severely affected the United States. During infectious disease outbreaks, forecasting models are often developed to inform resource utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that most American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting. Objective:This study aimed to forecast the first pandemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the general population and the incidence of severe, critical, and fatal coronavirus disease 2019 cases during delivery hospitalization in the United States. Study Design:We used a phenomenological model to forecast the incidence of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the United States. Incidence data from March 1, 2020, to April 14, 2020, were used to calibrate the generalized logistic growth model. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for each week from March 1, 2020, to estimate the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 for delivery hospitalizations during the first pandemic wave using the available data estimate. Results:From March 1, 2020, our model forecasted a total of 860,475 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in the general population across the United States for the first pandemic wave. The cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 during delivery hospitalization is anticipated to be 16,601 (95% confidence interval, 9711-23,491) cases, 3308 (95% confidence interval, 1755-4861) cases of which are expected to be severe, 681 (95% confidence interval, 1324-1038) critical, and 52 (95% confidence interval, 23-81) fatal. Assuming similar baseline maternal mortality rate as the year 2018, we projected an increase in maternal mortality rate in the United States to at least 18.7 (95% confidence interval, 18.0-19.5) deaths per 100,000 live births as a direct result of coronavirus disease 2019. Conclusion:Coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnant women is expected to severely affect obstetrical care. From March 1, 2020, we forecast 3308 severe and 681 critical cases with about 52 coronavirus disease 2019-related maternal mortalities during delivery hospitalization for the first pandemic wave in the United States. These results are significant for informing counseling and resource allocation.

SUBMITTER: Putra M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7182514 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resource utilization.

Putra Manesha M Kesavan Malavika M Brackney Kerri K Hackney David N DN Roosa Kimberlyn M KM

American journal of obstetrics & gynecology MFM 20200425 3

<h4>Background</h4>The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has severely affected the United States. During infectious disease outbreaks, forecasting models are often developed to inform resource utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that most American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting.<h4>Objective</h4>This study aimed to forecast the first pandemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the general popu ...[more]

PMID: 32342041

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Project description:Background A global My Migraine Voice survey was conducted in 31 countries among 11,266 adults who suffered from ?4 monthly migraine days (MMD). The aim of this retrospective observational survey-based study was to analyse the country specific results in Finland in order to understand the impact of migraine based on disease severity. Methods The included participants (3%, n?=?338/11,266) were stratified by mean MMDs into 4???MMD?<?8 (n?=?133), 8???MMD?<?15 (n?=?139) and MMD???15 (n?=?66) subgroups. Comorbidities, migraine-related emotional burden and impact on daily living and work productivity and activity impairment (WPAI) were assessed. Subgroup analysis on healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) due to migraine was assessed by visits to healthcare practitioners (HCPs) during the past 6?months and by hospitalizations and emergency room (ER) visits during the past 12?months. The group difference was tested using the one-way ANOVA and for categorical variables using the Chi-squared test. The association between HCRU and MMD and number of comorbidities was assessed using negative binomial regression analysis. Results Mean age was 44?years, 93% were women and 67% (n?=?227) were employed. Chronic migraine (CM, MMD???15) was reported in 19.5% of the respondents. The negative impact on daily functioning and emotional burden increased significantly by migraine frequency. Mean number of comorbidities was 2.4, and mean number of HCP visits during the previous 6 months was 5.9. Increase in migraine frequency and comorbidities was associated with higher HCRU. Eighty-eight percent of the respondents reported negative impact on working life and 52% experienced overall work productivity impairment. Over previous month, the mean number of missed working days for all respondents was 2.8?days of which 54% were paid sick leave days, and in CM up to 6.0?days and 30%, respectively. Both absenteeism and presenteeism were higher in the CM group. Conclusions The emotional and functional burden was high, and the societal burden increased by frequency and severity of migraine, as shown by higher HCRU and reduced work productivity. There is a need to improve quality of care in migraine and improve migraine management related issues in both healthcare and society in Finland.

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Project description:Background and Purpose- Most cases of pregnancy-related ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) occur postpartum. Infections have been identified as a trigger for strokes in young people and have been associated with strokes during delivery hospitalizations, but a temporal relationship has been difficult to establish. We hypothesized that infections diagnosed during a delivery admission would be associated with an increased risk of readmission for postpartum stroke. Methods- We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's National Readmissions Database from 2010 to 2014. Using weighted survey design Poisson regression analysis, we calculated adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% CI for the association between infection during delivery admission and 30-day postpartum readmission for IS or HS. Results- Out of 17.2 million delivery admissions during the study period, 2128 were readmitted within 30 days for a stroke of any type. There were 1189 HS (intracerebral hemorrhage or subarachnoid hemorrhage) and 720 IS, and the remainder unspecified pregnancy-related stroke. Adjusting for age and comorbidities, women with delivery infections were at higher risk of readmission for postpartum stroke of any type (aRR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.01-1.41). Women with infections had higher risk of readmission for postpartum IS (aRR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.37-2.22), but not for postpartum HS (aRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.75-1.23). The effect of infection on 30-day IS readmission was larger in women without hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (aRR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.55-2.69 in women without hypertensive disorders of pregnancy versus aRR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.9-2.38 in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, P value for interaction=0.09). Conclusions- Infection during delivery hospitalization was associated with increased risk of readmission for IS, but not HS, within 30 days postpartum, particularly in women without hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Infection may play a role in triggering postpartum IS even in the absence of other risk factors.

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Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resource utilization.

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Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resource utilization.

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