Routes for COVID-19 importation in Brazil.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Candido DDS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7184379 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:On March 11, 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the spread of the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, as a pandemic on the basis of "alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction." Hence, it is urgent and imperative to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 for as many global locations as possible. This study calculates the relative risk of the importation and exportation of the COVID-19 virus. The study's most important contribution is the calculation of the overall relative risk of the importation and exportation of COVID-19 from every airport in local municipalities around the world, based on global spatial and mapping information. Three scenarios of air travel restriction are considered, and the change in the risk of importation and exportation of COVID-19 is calculated. The relative risk of importation and exportation of COVID-19 clearly shows that not only China, Europe, Middle East, and East Asia, but also the U.S., Australia, and countries in northeast Asia and Latin America are subject to risk. Further, a larger reduction in air travel through airports in a large part of the cumulative incidence area would lead to a gradual decrease in the risk flow. Importantly, the exportation risk of the disease from some airports in China, Iran, and European countries has a higher global spread than the importation risk during the pandemic stage. Therefore, every airport, or government with airports in their jurisdiction, should implement strict countermeasures. It is also indispensable for these countries to undertake countermeasures for COVID-19, such as home quarantine within each country and restricting infected or suspected individuals from flying on airplanes.
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Project description:We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
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Project description:On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global public health emergency. As of 12 March 2020, 125 048 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 118 countries had been reported. On 12 March 2020, the first case in the Pacific islands was reported in French Polynesia; no other Pacific island country or territory has reported cases. The purpose of our analysis is to show how travellers may introduce COVID-19 into the Pacific islands and discuss the role robust health systems play in protecting health and reducing transmission risk. We analyse travel and Global Health Security Index data using a scoring tool to produce quantitative estimates of COVID-19 importation risk, by departing and arriving country. Our analysis indicates that, as of 12 March 2020, the highest risk air routes by which COVID-19 may be imported into the Pacific islands are from east Asian countries (specifically, China, Korea and Japan) to north Pacific airports (likely Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or, to a less extent, Palau); or from China, Japan, Singapore, the United States of America or France to south Pacific ports (likely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, French Polynesia or New Caledonia). Other importation routes include from other east Asian countries to Guam, and from Australia, New Zealand and other European countries to the south Pacific. The tool provides a useful method for assessing COVID-19 importation risk and may be useful in other settings.
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Project description:BackgroundNovel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations.MethodsHere we develop a comprehensive probabilistic framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation.ResultsAs a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open.ConclusionsWhile travel bans lowered the number of COVID-19 importations overall, the effectiveness of bans on individual countries varies widely and directly depends on the change in behaviour in returning residents and citizens. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.
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