Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zhao K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7184396 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study.
Zhao Kedong K Long Cheng C Wang Yan Y Zeng Tieyong T Fu Xinmiao X
Journal of public health (Oxford, England) 20200801 3
The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiate ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is pseudonymously linked to more than 100 million cases in the world as of January 2021. High-quality data are needed but lacking in the understanding of and fighting against COVID-19. We provide a complete and updating hand-coded line-list dataset containing detailed information of the cases in China and outside the epicenter in Hubei province. The data are extracted from public disclosures by local health authorities, starting from January 19. This dataset contains a very rich set of features for the characterization of COVID-19's epidemiological properties, including individual cases' demographic information, travel history, potential virus exposure scenario, contacts with known infections, and timelines of symptom onset, quarantine, infection confirmation, and hospitalization. These cases can be considered the baseline COVID-19 transmissibility under extreme mitigation measures, and therefore, a reference for comparative scientific investigation and public policymaking.
| S-EPMC7864941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has been largely controlled in China, to the point where case fatality rate (CFR) data can be comprehensively evaluated.MethodsData on confirmed patients, with a final outcome reported as of 29 March 2020, were obtained from official websites and other internet sources. The hospitalized CFR (HCFR) was estimated, epidemiological features described, and risk factors for a fatal outcome identified.ResultsThe overall HCFR in China was estimated to be 4.6% (95% CI 4.5-4.8%, P < 0.001). It increased with age and was higher in males than females. Although the highest HCFR observed was in male patients ≥70 years old, the relative risks for death outcome by sex varied across age groups, and the greatest HCFR risk ratio for males vs. females was shown in the age group of 50-60 years, higher than age groups of 60-70 and ≥ 70 years. Differential age/sex HCFR patterns across geographical regions were found: the age effect on HCFR was greater in other provinces outside Hubei than in Wuhan. An effect of longer interval from symptom onset to admission was only observed outside Hubei, not in Wuhan. By performing multivariate analysis and survival analysis, the higher HCFR was associated with older age (both P < 0.001), and male sex (both P < 0.001). Only in regions outside Hubei, longer interval from symptom onset to admission, were associated with higher HCFR.ConclusionsThis up-to-date and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 HCFR and its drivers will help healthcare givers target limited medical resources to patients with high risk of fatality.
| S-EPMC8153527 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Limited studies have reported the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to provide the epidemiological characteristics of children with COVID-19 throughout China (outside of Hubei Province) based on public data. Methods:This was an observational, cross-sectional study. We included a total of 279 diagnosed children based on the data of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 reported by the Health Commission in each province, autonomous region, municipality, or special administrative region in China (outside of Hubei Province) from January 24, 2020 to February 16, 2020. Results:The number of newborns (0 days ? age ?28 days), infants (28 days < age ?1 year), children (1 year < age ?5 years), and children (5 years < age ?18 years) accounted for 0.7%, 6.5%, 23.7%, and 69.2% of the total number of infected children, respectively. We found that from January 23, 2020, to January 31, 2020, infected children mainly came from Wuhan, China. After February 3, 2020, family clustering transmission became the main mode of transmission. Conclusions:Family clustering transmission is currently the main model of transmission in children. Considering the mild symptoms in infected children, the possibility that children may be a source of the transmission should not be ignored.
| S-EPMC7396807 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:During the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), consistent and considerable differences in disease severity and mortality rate of patients treated in Hubei province compared to those in other parts of China have been observed. We sought to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients being treated inside and outside Hubei province, and explore the factors underlying these differences. METHODS:Collaborating with the National Health Commission, we established a retrospective cohort to study hospitalised COVID-19 cases in China. Clinical characteristics, the rate of severe events and deaths, and the time to critical illness (invasive ventilation or intensive care unit admission or death) were compared between patients within and outside Hubei. The impact of Wuhan-related exposure (a presumed key factor that drove the severe situation in Hubei, as Wuhan is the epicentre as well the administrative centre of Hubei province) and the duration between symptom onset and admission on prognosis were also determined. RESULTS:At the data cut-off (31 January 2020), 1590 cases from 575 hospitals in 31 provincial administrative regions were collected (core cohort). The overall rate of severe cases and mortality was 16.0% and 3.2%, respectively. Patients in Hubei (predominantly with Wuhan-related exposure, 597 (92.3%) out of 647) were older (mean age 49.7 versus 44.9?years), had more cases with comorbidity (32.9% versus 19.7%), higher symptomatic burden, abnormal radiologic manifestations and, especially, a longer waiting time between symptom onset and admission (5.7 versus 4.5?days) compared with patients outside Hubei. Patients in Hubei (severe event rate 23.0% versus 11.1%, death rate 7.3% versus 0.3%, HR (95% CI) for critical illness 1.59 (1.05-2.41)) have a poorer prognosis compared with patients outside Hubei after adjusting for age and comorbidity. However, among patients outside Hubei, the duration from symptom onset to hospitalisation (mean 4.4 versus 4.7?days) and prognosis (HR (95%) 0.84 (0.40-1.80)) were similar between patients with or without Wuhan-related exposure. In the overall population, the waiting time, but neither treated in Hubei nor Wuhan-related exposure, remained an independent prognostic factor (HR (95%) 1.05 (1.01-1.08)). CONCLUSION:There were more severe cases and poorer outcomes for COVID-19 patients treated in Hubei, which might be attributed to the prolonged duration of symptom onset to hospitalisation in the epicentre. Future studies to determine the reason for delaying hospitalisation are warranted.
| S-EPMC7144336 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan city, Hubei province, in December, 2019, and has spread throughout China. Understanding the evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy.MethodsWe collected individual information from official public sources on laboratory-confirmed cases reported outside Hubei in mainland China for the period of Jan 19 to Feb 17, 2020. We used the date of the fourth revision of the case definition (Jan 27) to divide the epidemic into two time periods (Dec 24 to Jan 27, and Jan 28 to Feb 17) as the date of symptom onset. We estimated trends in the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt) at the provincial level.FindingsWe collected data on 8579 cases from 30 provinces. The median age of cases was 44 years (33-56), with an increasing proportion of cases in younger age groups and in elderly people (ie, aged >64 years) as the epidemic progressed. The mean time from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4·4 days (95% CI 0·0-14·0) for the period of Dec 24 to Jan 27, to 2·6 days (0·0-9·0) for the period of Jan 28 to Feb 17. The mean incubation period for the entire period was estimated at 5·2 days (1·8-12·4) and the mean serial interval at 5·1 days (1·3-11·6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei were highly variable but consistently included a mixture of case importations and local transmission. We estimated that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than 3 weeks, with mean Rt reaching peaks between 1·08 (95% CI 0·74-1·54) in Shenzhen city of Guangdong province and 1·71 (1·32-2·17) in Shandong province. In all the locations for which we had sufficient data coverage of Rt, Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold (ie, <1) after Jan 30.InterpretationOur estimates of the incubation period and serial interval were similar, suggesting an early peak of infectiousness, with possible transmission before the onset of symptoms. Our results also indicate that, as the epidemic progressed, infectious individuals were isolated more quickly, thus shortening the window of transmission in the community. Overall, our findings indicate that strict containment measures, movement restrictions, and increased awareness of the population might have contributed to interrupt local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 outside Hubei province.FundingNational Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and European Commission Horizon 2020.
| S-EPMC7269887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs of March 18, 2020, 13 415 confirmed cases and 120 deaths related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, outside Hubei province-the epicentre of the outbreak-had been reported. Since late January, massive public health interventions have been implemented nationwide to contain the outbreak. We provide an impact assessment of the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 during the first wave in mainland Chinese locations outside Hubei.MethodsWe estimated the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, and the ten Chinese provinces that had the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases; and the confirmed case-fatality risk (cCFR) in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wenzhou, and all 31 Chinese provinces. We used a susceptible-infectious-recovered model to show the potential effects of relaxing containment measures after the first wave of infection, in anticipation of a possible second wave.FindingsIn all selected cities and provinces, the Rt decreased substantially since Jan 23, when control measures were implemented, and have since remained below 1. The cCFR outside Hubei was 0·98% (95% CI 0·82-1·16), which was almost five times lower than that in Hubei (5·91%, 5·73-6·09). Relaxing the interventions (resulting in Rt >1) when the epidemic size was still small would increase the cumulative case count exponentially as a function of relaxation duration, even if aggressive interventions could subsequently push disease prevalence back to the baseline level.InterpretationThe first wave of COVID-19 outside of Hubei has abated because of aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, given the substantial risk of viral reintroduction, particularly from overseas importation, close monitoring of Rt and cCFR is needed to inform strategies against a potential second wave to achieve an optimal balance between health and economic protection.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong, China.
| S-EPMC7195331 | biostudies-literature
Project description:paddy soil of Qianjiang, Hubei, China Targeted loci environmental
| PRJNA758154 | ENA
Project description:Statistical thermodynamics has a universal appeal that extends beyond molecular systems, and yet, as its tools are being transplanted to fields outside physics, the fundamental question, what is thermodynamics, has remained unanswered. We answer this question here. Generalized statistical thermodynamics is a variational calculus of probability distributions. It is independent of physical hypotheses but provides the means to incorporate our knowledge, assumptions and physical models about a stochastic processes that gives rise to the probability in question. We derive the familiar calculus of thermodynamics via a probabilistic argument that makes no reference to physics. At the heart of the theory is a space of distributions and a special functional that assigns probabilities to this space. The maximization of this functional generates the mathematical network of thermodynamic relationship. We obtain statistical mechanics as a special case and make contact with Information Theory and Bayesian inference.
| S-EPMC7515426 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The emerging coronavirus diseases such as COVID-19, MERS, and SARS indicated that animal coronaviruses (CoVs) spillover to humans are a huge threat to public health. Therefore, we needed to understand the CoVs carried by various animals. Wild hedgehogs were collected from rural areas in Wuhan and Xianning cities in Hubei Province for analysis of CoVs. PCR results showed that 5 out of 51 (9.8%) hedgehogs (Erinaceus amurensis) were positive to CoVs in Hubei Province with 3 samples from Wuhan City and 2 samples from Xianning City. Phylogenetic analysis based on the partial sequence of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase showed that the CoVs from hedgehogs are classified into Merbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus; the hedgehog CoVs formed a phylogenetic sister cluster with human MERS-CoVs and bat MERS-related CoVs. Among the 12 most critical residues of receptor binding domain in MERS-CoV for binding human Dipeptidyl peptidase 4, 3 residuals were conserved between the hedgehog MERS-related CoV obtained in this study and the human MERS-CoV. We concluded that hedgehogs from Hubei Province carried MERS-related CoVs, indicating that hedgehogs might be important in the evolution and transmission of MERS-CoVs, and continuous surveillance of CoVs in hedgehogs was important.
| S-EPMC8464353 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to assess the quality of life (QOL) of the patients with cervical cancer after initial treatment, the factors affecting QOL and their clinical relevance. A total of 256 patients with cervical cancer who visited Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2017 to December 2017 were enrolled in this study. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core-30 item (EORTC QLQ-C30) and cervical cancer module (EORTC QLQ-CX24) was used to assess the QOL of patients. More than half of the patients with cervical cancer reported an excellent QOL. Symptoms mostly experienced were insomnia, constipation, financial difficulties, and menopausal symptoms. Global QOL and social functioning were statistically associated with education level, occupation, the area of living, family income and treatment modality. Similarly, role functioning showed significant association with the stage of cancer, treatment modality and time since diagnosis. The rural area of living and poor economic status of the patients with cervical cancer has a negative impact on overall quality of life. Younger and educated patients are more worried about sexuality. Patients treated with multiple therapies had more problems with their QOL scales than patients treated with surgery only.
| S-EPMC6086893 | biostudies-other