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A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.

ABSTRACT: Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.53, 1.70, and 1.90. Empirical data from the pH1N1 virus were used to validate our SEIR model. Time to entry to the U.S. during the early stages of a prototypical novel communicable disease was predicted based on the aviation network patterns and the epidemiology of the disease. For example, approximately 96% of origins (R(0) of 1.53) propagated a disease into the U.S. in under 75 days, 90% of these origins propagated a disease in under 50 days. An R(0) of 1.53 reproduced the pH1NI observations. The ability to anticipate the rate and location of disease introduction into the U.S. provides greater opportunity to plan responses based on the scenario as it is unfolding. This simulation tool can aid public health officials to assess risk and leverage resources efficiently.

SUBMITTER: Hwang GM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7185572 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.

Hwang Grace M GM Mahoney Paula J PJ James John H JH Lin Gene C GC Berro Andre D AD Keybl Meredith A MA Goedecke D Michael DM Mathieu Jennifer J JJ Wilson Todd T

Travel medicine and infectious disease 20120114 1

Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.53, 1.70, ...[more]

PMID: 22245113

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Project description:BackgroundThe implementation of core capacities as stated in the International Health Regulations (IHR) is far from complete, and, as the COVID-19 pandemic shows, the spreading of infectious diseases through points of entry (POEs) is a serious problem. To guide training and exercises, we performed a training needs assessment on infectious disease management among professionals at European POE.MethodsWe disseminated a digital questionnaire to representatives of designated airports, ports, and ground-crossings in Europe. Topics were derived from the IHR core capacities for POEs. Based on the importance (4-point Likert scale) and training needs (4-point Likert scale), we identified the topics with the highest priority for training. These results were put in further perspective using prior experience (training < 3 year, exercise < 5 years, events < 5 years). Also, preferences for training methodologies were assessed.ResultsFifty questionnaires were included in the analyses, representing 50 POEs from 19 European countries. Importance is high for 26/30 topics, although scores widely vary among respondents. Topics with a high training need (16/30) are amongst others the handling of ill travelers; using and composing the public health emergency contingency plan, and public health measures. Respondents from ports and airports attribute equal importance to most topics, but respondents from ports showed higher training needs on 75% of the topics. POEs are unevenly and generally little experienced. The most preferred training methods were presentations. Simulation is the preferred methodology for training the handling of ill or exposed travelers.ConclusionsThe European workforce at designated ports, airports and ground-crossings has a different level of experience and perceives varying importance of the topics assessed in our study. We identified the topics on which training is required. We call for European collaboration between POEs to agree upon the importance of infectious disease management, and to jointly build a trained and prepared workforce that is ready to face the next crisis.

Dataset Information

A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.

Publications

A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.

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