Dataset Information

Examining the effect of social distancing on the compound growth rate of COVID-19 at the county level (United States) using statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The goal of the present work is to investigate trends among US counties and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) growth rates in relation to the existence of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders in that county. STUDY DESIGN:This is a prospective cohort study. METHODS:Compound growth rates were calculated using cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 21, 2020, to March 31, 2020, in all 3139 US counties. Compound growth was chosen as it gives a single number that can be used in machine learning to represent the speed of virus spread during defined time intervals. Statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model were used to analyze the data for differences in counties with and without SIP orders. RESULTS:Statistical analyses revealed that the March 16 presidential recommendation (limiting gatherings to ?10 people) lowered the compound growth rate of COVID-19 for all counties in the US by 6.6%, and the counties that implemented SIP after March 16 had a further reduction of 7.8% compared with the counties that did not implement SIP after March 16. A random forest machine learning model was built to predict compound growth rate after a SIP order and was found to have an accuracy of 92.3%. The random forest found that population, longitude, and population per square mile were the most important features when predicting the effect of SIP. CONCLUSIONS:SIP orders were found to be effective at reducing the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the US. Counties with a large population or a high population density were found to benefit the most from a SIP order.

SUBMITTER: Cobb JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7186211 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Examining the effect of social distancing on the compound growth rate of COVID-19 at the county level (United States) using statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model.

Cobb J S JS Seale M A MA

Public health 20200428

<h4>Objectives</h4>The goal of the present work is to investigate trends among US counties and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) growth rates in relation to the existence of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders in that county.<h4>Study design</h4>This is a prospective cohort study.<h4>Methods</h4>Compound growth rates were calculated using cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 21, 2020, to March 31, 2020, in all 3139 US counties. Compound growth was chosen as it gives a single number that ...[more]

PMID: 32526559

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Project description:BackgroundSocial distancing and public policy have been crucial for minimizing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. Publicly available, county-level time series data on mobility are derived from individual devices with global positioning systems, providing a variety of indices of social distancing behavior per day. Such indices allow a fine-grained approach to modeling public behavior during the pandemic. Previous studies of social distancing and policy have not accounted for the occurrence of pre-policy social distancing and other dynamics reflected in the long-term trajectories of public mobility data.ObjectiveWe propose a differential equation state-space model of county-level social distancing that accounts for distancing behavior leading up to the first official policies, equilibrium dynamics reflected in the long-term trajectories of mobility, and the specific impacts of four kinds of policy. The model is fit to each US county individually, producing a nationwide data set of novel estimated mobility indices.MethodsA differential equation model was fit to three indicators of mobility for each of 3054 counties, with T=100 occasions per county of the following: distance traveled, visitations to key sites, and the log number of interpersonal encounters. The indicators were highly correlated and assumed to share common underlying latent trajectory, dynamics, and responses to policy. Maximum likelihood estimation with the Kalman-Bucy filter was used to estimate the model parameters. Bivariate distributional plots and descriptive statistics were used to examine the resulting county-level parameter estimates. The association of chronology with policy impact was also considered.ResultsMobility dynamics show moderate correlations with two census covariates: population density (Spearman r ranging from 0.11 to 0.31) and median household income (Spearman r ranging from -0.03 to 0.39). Stay-at-home order effects were negatively correlated with both (r=-0.37 and r=-0.38, respectively), while the effects of the ban on all gatherings were positively correlated with both (r=0.51, r=0.39). Chronological ordering of policies was a moderate to strong determinant of their effect per county (Spearman r ranging from -0.12 to -0.56), with earlier policies accounting for most of the change in mobility, and later policies having little or no additional effect.ConclusionsChronological ordering, population density, and median household income were all associated with policy impact. The stay-at-home order and the ban on gatherings had the largest impacts on mobility on average. The model is implemented in a graphical online app for exploring county-level statistics and running counterfactual simulations. Future studies can incorporate the model-derived indices of social distancing and policy impacts as important social determinants of COVID-19 health outcomes.

Project description:Since 2017, we have used IonTorrent NGS platform in our hospital to diagnose and treat cancer. Analyzing variants at each run requires considerable time, and we are still struggling with some variants that appear correct on the metrics at first, but are found to be negative upon further investigation. Can any machine learning algorithm (ML) help us classify NGS variants? This has led us to investigate which ML can fit our NGS data and to develop a tool that can be routinely implemented to help biologists. Currently, one of the greatest challenges in medicine is processing a significant quantity of data. This is particularly true in molecular biology with the advantage of next-generation sequencing (NGS) for profiling and identifying molecular tumors and their treatment. In addition to bioinformatics pipelines, artificial intelligence (AI) can be valuable in helping to analyze mutation variants. Generating sequencing data from patient DNA samples has become easy to perform in clinical trials. However, analyzing the massive quantities of genomic or transcriptomic data and extracting the key biomarkers associated with a clinical response to a specific therapy requires a formidable combination of scientific expertise, biomolecular skills and a panel of bioinformatic and biostatistic tools, in which artificial intelligence is now successful in developing future routine diagnostics. However, cancer genome complexity and technical artifacts make identifying real variants challenging. We present a machine learning method for classifying pathogenic single nucleotide variants (SNVs), single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), multiple nucleotide variants (MNVs), insertions, and deletions detected by NGS from different types of tumor specimens, such as: colorectal, melanoma, lung and glioma cancer. We compared our NGS data to different machine learning algorithms using the k-fold cross-validation method and to neural networks (deep learning) to measure the performance of the different ML algorithms and determine which one is a valid model for confirming NGS variant calls in cancer diagnosis. We trained our machine learning with 70% of our data samples, extracted from our local database (our data structure had 7 parameters: chromosome, position, exon, variant allele frequency, minor allele frequency, coverage and protein description) and validated it with the 30% remaining data. The model offering the best accuracy was chosen and implemented in the NGS analysis routine. Artificial intelligence was developed with the R script language version 3.6.0. We trained our model on 70% of 102,011 variants. Our best error rate (0.22%) was found with random forest machine learning (ntree = 500 and mtry = 4), with an AUC of 0.99. Neural networks achieved some good scores. The final trained model with the neural network achieved an accuracy of 98% and an ROC-AUC of 0.99 with validation data. We tested our RF model to interpret more than 2000 variants from our NGS database: 20 variants were misclassified (error rate < 1%). The errors were nomenclature problems and false positives. After adding false positives to our training database and implementing our RF model routinely, our error rate was always < 0.5%. The RF model shows excellent results for oncosomatic NGS interpretation and can easily be implemented in other molecular biology laboratories. AI is becoming increasingly important in molecular biomedical analysis and can be very helpful in processing medical data. Neural networks show a good capacity in variant classification, and in the future, they may be useful in predicting more complex variants.

Project description:Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic infectious disease and is the most common type of TB. Although the sputum smear test is a gold standard for diagnosing PTB, the method has numerous limitations, including low sensitivity, low specificity, and insufficient samples. Methods: The present study aimed to identify specific biomarkers of PTB and construct a model for diagnosing PTB by combining random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. Two publicly available cohorts of TB, namely, the GSE83456 (training) and GSE42834 (validation) cohorts, were retrieved from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. A total of 45 and 61 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between the PTB and control samples, respectively, by screening the GSE83456 cohort. An RF classifier was used for identifying specific biomarkers, following which an ANN-based classification model was constructed for identifying PTB samples. The accuracy of the ANN model was validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proportion of 22 types of immunocytes in the PTB samples was measured using the CIBERSORT algorithm, and the correlations between the immunocytes were determined. Results: Differential analysis revealed that 11 and 22 DEGs were upregulated and downregulated, respectively, and 11 biomarkers specific to PTB were identified by the RF classifier. The weights of these biomarkers were determined and an ANN-based classification model was subsequently constructed. The model exhibited outstanding performance, as revealed by the area under the curve (AUC), which was 1.000 for the training cohort. The AUC of the validation cohort was 0.946, which further confirmed the accuracy of the model. Conclusion: Altogether, the present study successfully identified specific genetic biomarkers of PTB and constructed a highly accurate model for the diagnosis of PTB based on blood samples. The model developed herein can serve as a reliable reference for the early detection of PTB and provide novel perspectives into the pathogenesis of PTB.

Project description:BackgroundInternal carotid artery stenosis (ICAS) can cause stroke and cognitive decline. Associated hemodynamic impairments, which are most pronounced within individual watershed areas (iWSA) between vascular territories, can be assessed with hemodynamic-oxygenation-sensitive MRI and may help to detect severely affected patients. We aimed to identify the most sensitive parameters and volumes of interest (VOI) to predict high-grade ICAS with random forest machine learning. We hypothesized an increased predictive ability considering iWSAs and a decreased cognitive performance in correctly classified patients.Materials and methodsTwenty-four patients with asymptomatic, unilateral, high-grade carotid artery stenosis and 24 age-matched healthy controls underwent MRI comprising pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling (pCASL), breath-holding functional MRI (BH-fMRI), dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC), T2 and T2* mapping, MPRAGE and FLAIR. Quantitative maps of eight perfusion, oxygenation and microvascular parameters were obtained. Mean values of respective parameters within and outside of iWSAs split into gray (GM) and white matter (WM) were calculated for both hemispheres and for interhemispheric differences resulting in 96 features. Random forest classifiers were trained on whole GM/WM VOIs, VOIs considering iWSAs and with additional feature selection, respectively.ResultsThe most sensitive features in decreasing order were time-to-peak (TTP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral vascular reactivity (CVR), all of these inside of iWSAs. Applying iWSAs combined with feature selection yielded significantly higher receiver operating characteristics areas under the curve (AUC) than whole GM/WM VOIs (AUC: 0.84 vs. 0.90, p = 0.039). Correctly predicted patients presented with worse cognitive performances than frequently misclassified patients (Trail-making-test B: 152.5s vs. 94.4s, p = 0.034).ConclusionRandom forest classifiers trained on multiparametric MRI data allow identification of the most relevant parameters and VOIs to predict ICAS, which may improve personalized treatments.

Dataset Information

Examining the effect of social distancing on the compound growth rate of COVID-19 at the county level (United States) using statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model.

Publications

Examining the effect of social distancing on the compound growth rate of COVID-19 at the county level (United States) using statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model.

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