Project description:Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state's climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125-400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.
Project description:Wetlands are the major natural source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) and are also potentially an important source of nitrous oxide (N2O), though there is considerable variability among wetland types with some of the greatest uncertainty in freshwater mineral-soil wetlands. In particular, trace gas emissions from seasonal wetlands have been very poorly studied. We measured fluxes of CH4, N2O, and CO2(carbon dioxide), soil nutrients, and net primary productivity over one year in natural, restored, and agricultural seasonal wetland prairies in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. We found zero fluxes for CH4 and N2O, even during periods of extended waterlogging of the soil. To explore this lack of emissions, we performed a laboratory experiment to examine the controls over these gases. In a fully-factorial design, we amended anaerobic soils from all wetlands with nitrate, glucose, and NaOH (to neutralize pH) and measured production potentials of N2, N2O, CH4, and CO2. We found that denitrification and N2O production were co-limited by nitrate and carbon, with little difference between the three wetland types. This co-limitation suggests that low soil carbon availability will continue to constrain N2O emissions and denitrification in these systems even when receiving relatively high levels of nitrogen inputs. Contrary to the results for N2O, the amended wetland soils never produced significant amounts of CH4 under any treatment. We hypothesize that high concentrations of alternative electron acceptors exist in these soils so that methanogens are noncompetitive with other microbial groups. As a result, these wetlands do not appear to be a significant source or sink of soil carbon and thus have a near zero climate forcing effect. Future research should focus on determining if this is a generalizable result in other seasonal wetlands.
Project description:Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.
Project description:Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO2e yr-1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO2e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
Project description:Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands-to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO2e year-1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO2e), 299 Tg CO2e year-1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.
Project description:Awarding CO2 offset credits may incentivize seagrass restoration projects and help reverse greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from global seagrass loss. However, no study has quantified net GHG removal from the atmosphere from a seagrass restoration project, which would require coupled Corg stock and GHG flux enhancement measurements, or determined whether the creditable offset benefit can finance the restoration. We measured all of the necessary GHG accounting parameters in the 7-km2 Zostera marina (eelgrass) meadow in Virginia, U.S.A., part of the largest, most cost-effective meadow restoration to date, to provide the first seagrass offset finance test-of-concept. Restoring seagrass removed 9,600 tCO2 from the atmosphere over 15 years but also enhanced both CH4 and N2O production, releasing 950 tCO2e. Despite tripling the N2O flux to 0.06 g m-2 yr-1 and increasing CH4 8-fold to 0.8 g m-2 yr-1, the meadow now offsets 0.42 tCO2e ha-1 yr-1, which is roughly equivalent to the seagrass sequestration rate for GHG inventory accounting but lower than the rates for temperate and tropical forests. The financial benefit for this highly successful project, $87 K at $10 MtCO2e-1, defrays ~10% of the restoration cost. Managers should also consider seagrass co-benefits, which provide additional incentives for seagrass restoration.
Project description:Anaerobic digesters provide clean, renewable energy (biogas) by converting organic waste to methane, and are a key part of China's comprehensive rural energy plan. Here, experimental and modeling results are used to quantify the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction from substituting a household anaerobic digester for traditional energy sources in Sichuan, China. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy and radial plume mapping were used to estimate the mass flux of fugitive methane emissions from active digesters. Using household energy budgets, the net improvement in GHG emissions associated with biogas installation was estimated using global warming commitment (GWC) as a consolidated measure of the warming effects of GHG emissions from cooking. In all scenarios biogas households had lower GWC than nonbiogas households, by as much as 54%. Even biogas households with methane leakage exhibited lower GWC than nonbiogas households, by as much as 48%. Based only on the averted GHG emissions over 10 years, the monetary value of a biogas installation was conservatively estimated at US$28.30 ($16.07 ton(-1) CO(2)-eq), which is available to partly offset construction costs. The interaction of biogas installation programs with policies supporting improved stoves, renewable harvesting of biomass, and energy interventions with substantial health cobenefits are discussed.
Project description:Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.