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Comparative performance of pooled cohort equations and Framingham risk scores in cardiovascular disease risk classification in a slum setting in Nairobi Kenya.

ABSTRACT: Background:Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 18 million deaths annually. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for 80% of the CVD burden, and the burden is expected to grow in the region in the coming years. Screening for and identification of individuals at high risk for CVD in primary care settings can be accomplished using available CVD risk scores. However, few of these scores have been validated/recalibrated for use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods:Pooled cohort equations (PCE) and Framingham risk scores for 10-year CVD risk were applied on 1960 men and women aged 40 years and older from the AWI-Gen (Africa, Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for GENomic studies) study 2015. Low, moderate/intermediate or high CVD risk classifications correspond to <10%, 10-20% and >20% chance of developing CVD in 10 years respectively. Agreement between the risk scores was assessed using kappa and correlation coefficients. Results:High CVD risk was 10.3% in PCE 2013, 0.4% in PCE 2018, 2.9% in Framingham and 3.6% in Framingham non-laboratory scores. Conversely, low CVD risk was 62.2% in PCE 2013 and 95.6% in PCE 2018, 84.0% and 80.1% in Framingham and Framingham non-laboratory scores, respectively. A moderate agreement existed between the Framingham functions (kappa = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59-0.68, correlation, rs = 0.711). There was no agreement between the PCE 2013 and 2018 functions (kappa = 0.05, 95% CI 0.04-0.06). Conclusions:Newer cohort-based data is necessary to validate and recalibrate existing CVD risk scores in order to develop appropriate functions for use in SSA.

SUBMITTER: Wekesah FM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7191575 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparative performance of pooled cohort equations and Framingham risk scores in cardiovascular disease risk classification in a slum setting in Nairobi Kenya.

Wekesah Frederick M FM Mutua Martin K MK Boateng Daniel D Grobbee Diederick E DE Asiki Gershim G Kyobutungi Catherine K CK Klipstein-Grobusch Kerstin K

International journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature 20200428

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 18 million deaths annually. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for 80% of the CVD burden, and the burden is expected to grow in the region in the coming years. Screening for and identification of individuals at high risk for CVD in primary care settings can be accomplished using available CVD risk scores. However, few of these scores have been validated/recalibrated for use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).<h4>Methods</h4>Pooled coh ...[more]

PMID: 32373711

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Project description:BackgroundUrbanisation has been described as a key driver of the evolving non-communicable disease (NCD) epidemic. In Africa, hypertension is the commonest cardiovascular problem. We determined the prevalence and risk factor correlates of hypertension in the largest Nairobi slum.MethodsIn 2010 we conducted a population-based household survey in Kibera, a large informal settlement in Nairobi City; utilising cluster sampling with probability proportional to size. Households were selected using a random walk method. The WHO instrument for stepwise surveillance (STEPS) of chronic disease risk factors was administered by trained medical assistants, who also recorded blood pressure (BP) and anthropometric measures. BP was recorded using a mercury sphygmomanometer utilising the American Heart Association guidelines. Hypertension was defined as per the 7th Report of the Joint National Committee or use of prescribed antihypertensive medication. Those with hypertension or with random capillary blood sugar (RCBS) >11.1 mmol/l had an 8 hours fasting venous blood sugar sample drawn. Age standardised prevalence was computed and multivariate analysis to assess associations.ResultsWe screened 2200 and enrolled 2061 adults; 50.9% were males; mean age was 33.4 years and 87% had primary level education. The age-standardised prevalence of hypertension (95% CI) was 22.8% (20.7, 24.9). 20% (53/258) were aware of their hypertensive status; 59.3% had pre-hypertension; 80% reported high levels of physical activity and 52% were classified as harmful alcohol drinkers; 10% were current smokers and 5% had diabetes. Majority of males had normal BMI and waist circumference, whereas a third of females were obese or overweight and 40% had central obesity. Older age, higher general and central obesity were independently associated with hypertension and higher SBP and DBP readings.ConclusionsOur findings of high prevalence of hypertension, in association with excess body weight in this poor urban slum community, point to the need for greater awareness and implementation of primary preventive strategies.

Project description:BackgroundUrban slum populations in Africa continue to grow faster than national populations. Health strategies that focus on non-communicable diseases (NCD) in this segment of the population are generally lacking. We determined the prevalence of diabetes and associated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors correlates in Kibera, Nairobi's largest slum.MethodsWe conducted a population-based household survey utilising cluster sampling with probability proportional to size. Households were selected using a random walk method and consenting residents aged 18 years and above were recruited. The WHO STEPS instrument was administered. A random capillary blood sugar (RCBS) was obtained; known persons with diabetes and subjects with a RCBS >11.1 had an 8 hours fasting blood sugar (FBS) drawn. Diabetes was defined as a RCBS of ≥ 11.1 mmol/l and a FBS of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, or a prior diagnosis or receiving diabetes drug treatment.ResultsOut of 2061 enrolled; 50.9% were males, mean age was 33.4 years and 87% had a minimum of primary education. Only 10.6% had ever had a blood sugar measurement. Age adjusted prevalence of diabetes was 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.4) and prevalence increased with age peaking at 10.5% (95% CI 6.8-14.3%) in the 45-54 year age category. Diabetes mellitus (DM) correlates were: 13.1% smoking, 74.9% alcohol consumption, 75.7% high level of physical activity; 16.3% obese and 29% overweight with higher rates in women.Among persons with diabetes the odds of obesity, elevated waist circumference and hypertension were three, two and three fold respectively compared to those without diabetes. Cardiovascular risk factors among subjects with diabetes were high and mirrored that of the entire sample; however they had a significantly higher use of tobacco.ConclusionsThis previously unstudied urban slum has a high prevalence of DM yet low screening rates. Key correlates include cigarette smoking and high alcohol consumption. However high levels of physical activity were also reported. Findings have important implications for NCD prevention and care. For this rapidly growing youthful urban slum population policy makers need to focus their attention on strategies that address not just communicable diseases but non communicable diseases as well.

Project description:BackgroundThe Framingham risk models and pooled cohort equations (PCE) are widely used and advocated in guidelines for predicting 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Over the past few decades, these models have been extensively validated within different populations, which provided mounting evidence that local tailoring is often necessary to obtain accurate predictions. The objective is to systematically review and summarize the predictive performance of three widely advocated cardiovascular risk prediction models (Framingham Wilson 1998, Framingham ATP III 2002 and PCE 2013) in men and women separately, to assess the generalizability of performance across different subgroups and geographical regions, and to determine sources of heterogeneity in the findings across studies.MethodsA search was performed in October 2017 to identify studies investigating the predictive performance of the aforementioned models. Studies were included if they externally validated one or more of the original models in the general population for the same outcome as the original model. We assessed risk of bias for each validation and extracted data on population characteristics and model performance. Performance estimates (observed versus expected (OE) ratio and c-statistic) were summarized using a random effects models and sources of heterogeneity were explored with meta-regression.ResultsThe search identified 1585 studies, of which 38 were included, describing a total of 112 external validations. Results indicate that, on average, all models overestimate the 10-year risk of CHD and CVD (pooled OE ratio ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.43-0.73; Wilson men) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.60-0.97; ATP III women)). Overestimation was most pronounced for high-risk individuals and European populations. Further, discriminative performance was better in women for all models. There was considerable heterogeneity in the c-statistic between studies, likely due to differences in population characteristics.ConclusionsThe Framingham Wilson, ATP III and PCE discriminate comparably well but all overestimate the risk of developing CVD, especially in higher risk populations. Because the extent of miscalibration substantially varied across settings, we highly recommend that researchers further explore reasons for overprediction and that the models be updated for specific populations.

Project description:IntroductionPeri-urban settings have high maternal mortality and the quality of care received in different types of health facilities is varied. Yet few studies have explored the construct of person-centered maternity care (PCMC) within peri-urban settings. Understanding women's experience of maternity care in peri-urban settings will allow health facility managers and policy makers to improve services in these settings. This study examines factors associated with PCMC in a peri-urban setting in Kenya.Methods and materialsWe analyzed data from a cross-sectional study with 307 women aged 18-49 years who had delivered a baby within the preceding six weeks. Women were recruited from public (n = 118), private (n = 76), and faith based (n = 113) health facilities. We measured PCMC using the 30-item validated PCMC scale which evaluates women's experiences of dignified and respectful care, supportive care, and communication and autonomy. Factors associated with PCMC were evaluated using multilevel models, with women nested within facilities.ResultsThe average PCMC score was 58.2 (SD = 13.66) out of 90. Controlling for other factors, literate women had, on average, about 6-point higher PCMC scores than women who were not literate (β = 5.758, p = 0.006). Women whose first antenatal care (ANC) visit was in the second (β = -5.030, p = 0.006) and third trimester (β = -7.288, p = 0.003) had lower PCMC scores than those whose first ANC were in the first trimester. Women who were assisted by an unskilled attendant or an auxiliary nurse/midwife at birth had lower PCMC than those assisted by a nurse, midwife or clinical officer (β = -8.962, p = 0.016). Women who were interviewed by phone (β = -7.535, p = 0.006) had lower PCMC scores than those interviewed in person.ConclusionsFactors associated with PCMC include literacy, ANC timing and duration, and delivery provider. There is a need to improve PCMC in these settings as part of broader quality improvement activities to improve maternal and neonatal health.

Project description:ImportanceThe American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations were developed to estimate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and guide statin initiation.ObjectiveTo assess calibration and discrimination of the Pooled Cohort risk equations in a contemporary US population.Design, setting, and participantsAdults aged 45 to 79 years enrolled in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between January 2003 and October 2007 and followed up through December 2010. We studied participants for whom atherosclerotic CVD risk may trigger a discussion of statin initiation (those without clinical atherosclerotic CVD or diabetes, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level between 70 and 189 mg/dL, and not taking statins; n = 10,997).Main outcomes and measuresPredicted risk and observed adjudicated atherosclerotic CVD incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease [CHD] death, nonfatal or fatal stroke) at 5 years because REGARDS participants have not been followed up for 10 years. Additional analyses, limited to Medicare beneficiaries (n = 3333), added atherosclerotic CVD events identified in Medicare claims data.ResultsThere were 338 adjudicated events (192 CHD events, 146 strokes). The observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD incidence per 1000 person-years for participants with a 10-year predicted atherosclerotic CVD risk of less than 5% was 1.9 (95% CI, 1.3-2.7) and 1.9, respectively, risk of 5% to less than 7.5% was 4.8 (95% CI, 3.4-6.7) and 4.8, risk of 7.5% to less than 10% was 6.1 (95% CI, 4.4-8.6) and 6.9, and risk of 10% or greater was 12.0 (95% CI, 10.6-13.6) and 15.1 (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 19.9, P = .01). The C index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75). There were 234 atherosclerotic CVD events (120 CHD events, 114 strokes) among Medicare-linked participants and the observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD incidence per 1000 person-years for participants with a predicted risk of less than 7.5% was 5.3 (95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and 4.0, respectively, risk of 7.5% to less than 10% was 7.9 (95% CI, 4.6-13.5) and 6.4, and risk of 10% or greater was 17.4 (95% CI, 15.3-19.8) and 16.4 (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 5.4, P = .71). The C index was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort of US adults for whom statin initiation is considered based on the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort risk equations, observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD risks were similar, indicating that these risk equations were well calibrated in the population for which they were designed to be used, and demonstrated moderate to good discrimination.

Dataset Information

Comparative performance of pooled cohort equations and Framingham risk scores in cardiovascular disease risk classification in a slum setting in Nairobi Kenya.

Publications

Comparative performance of pooled cohort equations and Framingham risk scores in cardiovascular disease risk classification in a slum setting in Nairobi Kenya.

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