Project description:BackgroundItaly's severe COVID-19 outbreak was addressed by a lockdown that gradually increased in space, time and intensity. The effectiveness of the lockdown has not been precisely assessed with respect to the intensity of mobility restriction and the time until the outbreak receded.MethodsWe used processed mobile phone tracking data to measure mobility restriction, and related those data to the number of new SARS-CoV-2 positive cases detected on a daily base in the three most affected Italian regions, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, from February 1 through April 6, 2020, when two subsequent lockdowns with increasing intensity were implemented by the Italian government.FindingsDuring the study period, mobility restriction was inversely related to the daily number of newly diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 positive cases only after the second, more effective lockdown, with a peak in the curve of diagnosed cases of infection occurring 14 to 18 days from lockdown in the three regions and 9 to 25 days in the included provinces. An effective reduction in transmission must have occurred nearly immediately after the tighter lockdown, given the lag time of around 10 days from asymptomatic infection to diagnosis. The period from lockdown to peak was shorter in the areas with the highest prevalence of the infection. This effect was seen within slightly more than one week in the most severely affected areas.InterpretationIt appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.FundingNo funding sources have been used for this work.
Project description:This article describes how one trial site of the Refugee Emergency: Defining and Implementing Novel Evidence-based psychosocial interventions (RE-DEFINE) study, designed to evaluate a Self Help+ intervention with Arabic-speaking refugees and asylum seekers currently living in the UK and experiencing stress, was adapted to accommodate social distancing rules and working from home during the COVID-19 restrictions. Digital divide, risk and safety management, acceptability of remote data collection and practical considerations are described. The adaptions to methods have practical implications for researchers looking for more flexible approaches in response to continuing restrictions resulting from COVID-19, and the authors believe that others could adopt such an approach. The need for a further acceptability study focusing on human and economic costs and benefits of telephone and video as an alternative to face-to-face data collection is indicated. TRIALS REGISTRATION: Refugee Emergency - Defining and Implementing Novel Evidence-based psychosocial interventions RE-DEFINE. (Trials registration numbers NCT03571347 , NCT03587896 ) https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030259 (2019).
Project description:Abstract The relationship between pandemic, or chronic infectious diseases, and the carceral, meaning set‐apart spaces of enforced confinement for “wrong‐doers,” has a long, tangled history. It features in Foucault's inquiries into disciplinary power and its associated spatial formations, not least in the shape of the modern prison. Drawing lightly from Foucault's claims about disciplinary and biopolitical power, as well as on his anti‐prison activism, this paper explores three possibilities for penal transformation arising during the early months of COVID‐19 in UK prisons (circa March to August 2020). Consulting primary source material, these possibilities are respectively identified as “retrenching,” “reworking” or “reducing” the carceral. A chief finding is that under the press of pandemic “emergency,” the tilt of emphasis has been towards a retrenched or reworked “carceral state,” disappointing any promise of abolition, let alone more humble reduction in carceral conditions. The “biological sub‐citizens” of prisons are hence being left especially vulnerable to the press of pandemic, in part precisely because of how carceral spatialities are being intensified. Short Abstract The relationship between pandemic, or chronic infectious diseases, and the carceral, meaning set‐apart spaces of enforced confinement for “wrong‐doers,” has a long, tangled history. It features in Foucault’s inquiries into disciplinary power and its associated spatial formations, not least in the shape of the modern prison. Drawing lightly from Foucault’s claims about disciplinary and biopolitical power, as well as on his anti‐prison activism, this paper explores three possibilities for penal transformation arising during the early months of COVID‐19 in UK prisons.
Project description:Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for the spread of disease in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is imposed on the hospital system. To keep this demand under control, we consider a class of simple policies for slowing down and reopening society and we compare their efficiency in mitigating the spread of the virus from several different points of view. We find that in order to avoid overwhelming of the hospital system, a policy must impose a harsh lockdown or it must react swiftly (or both). While reacting swiftly is universally beneficial, being harsh pays off only when the country is patient about reopening and when the neighboring countries coordinate their mitigation efforts. Our work highlights the importance of acting decisively when closing down and the importance of patience and coordination between neighboring countries when reopening.
Project description:Due to the rapid expansion of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries ordained lockdowns, establishing different restrictions on people's mobility. Exploring to what extent these measures have been effective is critical in order to better respond to similar future scenarios. This article uses anonymous mobile phone data to study the impact of the Spanish lockdown on the daily dynamics of the Madrid metropolitan area (Spain). The analysis has been carried out for a reference week prior to the lockdown and during several weeks of the lockdown in which different restrictions were in place. During these weeks, population distribution is compared during the day and at night and presence profiles are obtained throughout the day for each type of land use. In addition, a spatial multiple regression analysis is carried out to determine the impact of the different land uses on the local population. The results in the reference week, pre-COVID-19, show how the population in activity areas increases in each time slot on a specific day and how in residential areas it decreases. However, during the lockdown, activity areas cease to attract population during the day and the residential areas therefore no longer show a decrease. Only basic essential commercial activities, or others that require the presence of workers (industrial or logistics) maintain some activity during lockdown.
Project description:Many countries have adopted various measures to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The regulation measures of lockdown have triggered changes in public political trust in the government (including in its competence, benevolence and integrity). Information shapes the attitudes and values of residents; this paper aims to study the effect of a lockdown on political trust and the moderating effect from quality of government shared information. From 12 March to 31 May 2022, Shanghai implemented strict lockdown measures. In this study, we randomly sampled the participation information of 1063 participants. Data-based regression analysis shows that lockdown has had a negative impact on all subcategories of political trust. However, timely and accuracy information weakens its negative effect. The accuracy of information moderates the relationship between lockdown and political trust in competence and integrity, while a sufficient supply of information moderates the relationship between lockdown and political trust in benevolence. Points for practitioners This study explores how different dimensions of information quality affect each component public’s political trust, and thereby inspires practitioners to strategically improve information communication in crisis.
Project description:ObjectiveThe global health crisis in the form of COVID-19 has forced people to shift their routine activities into a remote environment with the help of technology. The outbreak of the COVID-19 has caused several organizations to be shut down and forced them to initiate work from home employing technology. Now more than ever, it's important for people and institutions to understand the impact of excessive use of mobile phone technology and electronic gadgets on human health, cognition, and behavior. It is important to understand their perspective and how individuals are coping with this challenge in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The investigation is an effort to answer the research question: whether dependency on technology during lockdown has more effects on human health in comparison to normal times.MethodsThe study included participants from India (n = 122). A questionnaire was framed and the mode of conducting the survey chosen was online to maintain social distancing during the time of the Pandemic. The gathered data was statistically analysed employing RStudio and multiple regression techniques.ResultsThe statistical analysis confirms that lockdown scenarios have led to an increase in the usage of mobile phone technology which has been confirmed by around 90% of participants. Moreover, 95% of the participants perceive an increased risk of developing certain health problems due to excessive usage of mobile phones and technology. It has been evaluated that participants under the age group 15-30 years are highly affected (45.9%) during lockdown due to excessive dependence on technology. And, amongst different professions, participants involved in online teaching-learning are the most affected (42.6%).ConclusionThe findings indicate that dependency on technology during lockdown has more health effects as compared to normal times. So, it is suggested that as more waves of pandemics are being predicted, strategies should be planned to decrease the psychological and physiological effects of the overuse of technology during lockdown due to pandemics. As the lockdown situation unfolds, people and organization functioning styles should be rolled back to the limited dependency on technology.
Project description:This research note sheds light on the first three months of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa, where the virus has spread faster than anywhere else in the region. At the same time, South Africa has been recognized globally for its swift and efficient early response. We consider the impact of this response on different segments of the population, looking at changes in mobility by province to highlight variation in the willingness and ability of different subsets of the population to comply with lockdown orders. Using anonymized mobile phone data, we show that South Africans in all provinces reduced their mobility substantially in response to the government's lockdown orders. Statistical regression analysis shows that such mobility reductions are significantly and negatively associated with COVID-19 growth rates two weeks later. These findings add an important perspective to the emerging literature on the efficacy of shelter-in-place orders, which to date is dominated by studies of the United States. We show that people were particularly willing and able to act in the provinces hit hardest by the pandemic in its initial stages. At the same time, compliance with lockdown orders presented a greater challenge among rural populations and others with more precarious livelihoods. By reflecting on South Africa's inequality profile and results of a recent survey, we demonstrate how the country's response may deepen preexisting divides. This cautionary tale is relevant beyond South Africa, as much of the continent - and the world - grapples with similar tradeoffs. Along with measures to contain the spread of disease, governments and other development focused organizations should seriously consider how to offset the costs faced by already marginalized populations.
Project description:India enforced stringent lockdown measures on March 24, 2020 to mitigate the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronovirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Here, we examined the impact of lockdown on the air quality index (AQI) [including ambient particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and ammonia (NH3)] and tropospheric NO2 and O3 densities through Sentinel-5 satellite data approximately 1 d post-lockdown and one month pre-lockdown and post-lockdown. Our findings revealed a marked reduction in the ambient AQI (estimated mean reduction of 17.75% and 20.70%, respectively), tropospheric NO2 density, and land surface temperature (LST) during post-lockdown compared with the pre-lockdown period or corresponding months in 2019, except for a few sites with substantial coal mining and active power plants. We observed a modest increase in the O3 density post-lockdown, thereby indicating improved tropospheric air quality. As a favorable outcome of the COVID-19 lockdown, road accident-related mortalities declined by 72-folds. Cities with poor air quality correlate with higher COVID-19 cases and deaths (r = 0.504 and r = 0.590 for NO2; r = 0.744 and r = 0.435 for AQI). Conversely, low mortality was reported in cities with better air quality. These results show a correlation between the COVID-19 vulnerable regions and AQI hotspots, thereby suggesting that air pollution may exacerbate clinical manifestations of the disease. However, a prolonged lockdown may nullify the beneficial environmental outcomes by adversely affecting socioeconomic and health aspects.