Dataset Information

Identification and Prediction of Tuberculosis in Eastern China: Analyses from 10-year Population-based Notification Data in Zhejiang Province, China.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis, a severe infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis, arouses huge concerns globally. In this study, a total of 331,594 TB cases in Zhejiang Province were notified during the period of 2009-2018 with the gender ratio of male to female 2.16:1. The notified TB incidences demonstrated a continuously declining trend from 75.38/100,000 to 52.25/100,000. Seasonally, the notified TB cases presented as low in January and February closely followed an apparent rise in March and April. Further stratification analysis by both genders demonstrated the double peak phenomenon in the younger population ("15-35") and the elders (">55") of the whole group. Results from the rate difference (RD) analysis showed that the rising TB incidence mainly presented in the young group of "15-20" and elder group of "65-70", implying that some implementations such as the increased frequency of checkup in specific student groups and strengthening of elder health examination could be explored and integrated into available health policy. Finally, the SARIMA (2,0,2) (0,1,1)12 was determined as the optimal prediction model, which could be used in the further prediction of TB in Zhejiang Province.

SUBMITTER: Liu K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7198485 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identification and Prediction of Tuberculosis in Eastern China: Analyses from 10-year Population-based Notification Data in Zhejiang Province, China.

Liu Kui K Li Tao T Vongpradith Avina A Wang Fei F Peng Ying Y Wang Wei W Chai Chengliang C Chen Songhua S Zhang Yu Y Zhou Lin L Chen Xinyi X Bian Qiao Q Chen Bin B Wang Xiaomeng X Jiang Jianmin J

Scientific reports 20200504 1

Tuberculosis, a severe infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis, arouses huge concerns globally. In this study, a total of 331,594 TB cases in Zhejiang Province were notified during the period of 2009-2018 with the gender ratio of male to female 2.16:1. The notified TB incidences demonstrated a continuously declining trend from 75.38/100,000 to 52.25/100,000. Seasonally, the notified TB cases presented as low in January and February closely followed an apparent rise in March a ...[more]

PMID: 32367050

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Project description:BackgroundSporadic Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases still have been reported in Zhejiang Province in recent years, and concerns about vaccine cross-protection and population-level immunity have been raised off and on within the public health sphere. Genotype I (GI) has replaced GIII as the dominant genotype in Asian countries during the past few decades, which caused considerable concerns about the potential change of epidemiology characteristics and the vaccine effectiveness. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of JE neutralizing antibody and its waning antibody trend after live attenuated JE vaccine immunization. Additionally, this study analyzed the molecular characteristics of the E gene of Zhejiang Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains, and established genetic relationships with other JEV strains.Methodology/principal findingsA total of 570 serum specimens were sampled from community population aged from 0 to 92 years old in Xianju county of Zhejiang Province in 2013-2014. Microseroneutralization test results were analyzed to estimate the population immunity and to observe antibody dynamics in vaccinated children. E genes of 28 JEV strains isolated in Zhejiang Province were sequenced for phylogenetic tree construction and molecular characteristics analysis with other selected strains. Positive JE neutralizing antibody rates were higher in residents ≥35 years old (81%~98%) and lower in residents <35 years old (0~57%). 7 or 8 years after the 2nd live attenuated vaccine dose, the antibodies against for 4 different strains with microseroneutralization test were decreased by 55%~73% on seropositive rates and by 25%~38% on GMTs respectively. JEV strains isolated in recent years were all grouped into GI, while those isolated in the 1980s belonged to GIII. On important amino acid sites related to antigenicity, there was no divergence between the Zhejiang JE virus strains and the vaccine strain (SA14-14-2).Conclusion/significancesJE neutralizing antibody positive rates increase in age ≥10 years old population, likely reflecting natural infection or natural boosting of immunity through exposure to wild virus. JE seropositivity rates were quite low in <35 years old age groups in Zhejiang Province. Waning of neutralizing antibody after live attenuated vaccine immunization was observed, but the clinical significance should be further investigated. Both the peripheral antibody response and genetic characterization indicate that current live attenuated JE vaccine conferred equal neutralizing potency against GI or GIII of wild strains. GI has replaced GIII as the dominant genotype in Zhejiang in the past few decades. Although the chance of exposure to wild JE virus has reduced, the virus still circulates in nature; therefore, it is necessary to implement immunization program for children continually and to conduct surveillance activity periodically.

Project description:Silicosis is a well-established risk factor for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. This study aimed to estimate the burden and risk factors of M. tuberculosis infection. Silicosis patients from Zhejiang Province were screened for M. tuberculosis by sputum culture, chest radiographs, whole-blood gamma interferon (IFN-γ) release assay (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube [QFT-GIT]), and tuberculin skin test (TST). Potential risk factors for M. tuberculosis were identified. Data for 1,659 patients were obtained from 1,684 participants. Of these, 1,656 (99.8%) were men, and the average age was 58 (54 to 63) years. The prevalence of active tuberculosis (ATB) was 6,340/100,000 (6.34%) people; the proportion of patients with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) was 50.6%. Age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.059, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.020 to 1.099, P = 0.003), being underweight (OR = 2.320, 95% CI = 1.057 to 5.089, P = 0.036), and having a history of exposure to TB patients (OR = 4.329, 95% CI = 1.992 to 9.434, P < 0.001) were associated with ATB; BCG vaccination could reduce ATB risk in silicosis patients (OR = 0.541, 95% CI = 0.307 to 0.954, P = 0.034). Among patients without ATB, the QFT-GIT positivity rate was 40.5%, which was affected by silicosis severity, while that of TST was 57.2%. BCG vaccination was an independent factor for LTBI risk reduction (OR = 0.612, 95% CI = 0.468 to 0.801, P < 0.001). The quantitative results of QFT-GIT decreased with silicosis stage (H = 6.037; P = 0.048). In conclusion, M. tuberculosis prevalence was high in silicosis patients. BCG vaccination reduced the risk of both ATB and LTBI in silicosis patients. IMPORTANCE This study evaluated the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in silicosis patients in mainland China and identified the potential risk factors for both active tuberculosis (ATB) and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature because we demonstrated that M. tuberculosis prevalence was high among silicosis patients. BCG vaccination was an independent factor that reduced the risk of M. tuberculosis infection in patients with silicosis. Furthermore, we show that the prevalence of LTBI in patients with silicosis may have been underestimated by immunological detection methods. This study can help to identify targeted subgroups prioritized for M. tuberculosis control and to reduce the risk of disease development.

Project description:BackgroundThe resurgence of pertussis has occurred in many countries. However, the epidemiological profiles of pertussis cannot be well understood by the current surveillance system in China. This study was designed to investigate the age specific serologic evidence of antibodies against pertussis, and to offer information regarding the existence of pertussis infection in Zhejiang Province, China.MethodsA cross-sectional serosurvey was carried out in 6 counties of Zhejiang Province during September and October of 2014. The immunoglobulin G-pertussis toxin (IgG-PT) levels were measured quantitatively with a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The antibody activities were expressed in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-U/ml and a level ≥30 FDA-U/ml was considered seropositive. An IgG-PT >80 FDA-U/ml indicated recent pertussis infection if the patient had not received immunization with the pertussis vaccine within the last year.ResultsThe mean IgG-PT seropositivity rate among the 2107 subjects was 33.32% with a geometric mean concentration of 17.73 (95% confidence interval: 16.90-18.60) FDA-U/ml. The difference in the seropositivity rates reached significant means among the different age groups (waldχ2 = 198.41, P<0.0005), and children aged 3 years had the highest percentage (63.24%) of undetectable IgG-PT level. Of the 1707 subjects ≥3 years of age, 169 (9.90%) had evidence of a recent infection. The highest proportion of IgG-PT levels ≥80 FDA-U/ml was found in ≥60 years age group followed by 11-15 and 16-25 years age groups.ConclusionsThis study indicates the rather lower IgG-PT level sustained 1 year after the acellular pertussis vaccine booster dose, and substantial proportion of population susceptibility to pertussis in Zhejiang Province, China. Moreover, pertussis infection is not uncommon; it was estimated that 10% of subjects were recently infected approximately within the last 100 days. We highly suggest that the surveillance capacity should be strengthened and consider introducing booster dose that protect against pertussis in 6 years old children.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is one of the most important vector-bore infectious diseases in China because of its drastic increase in incidence, geographic extension and profound influence on China's economy. This study aims to retrospectively uncover the epidemiological profile of dengue in Zhejiang, one of the most developed provinces in China, and to find the problem existing in dengue control and prevention.MethodologyDescriptive analyses on the dengue incidence and associated factors were performed. We also identified potential space-time cluster and generated the risk map of dengue.Principal findingsA total of 529 cases were reported in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2016, and 44.4% were imported. 67.7% of cases were 25~60 years old and the overall male-to-female sex ratio was 1.09:1. Dengue was reported all year round and 70.7% of cases occurred between August and October. Indigenous cases were only reported in the period between July to November and more than half occurred in September. Geographically, dengue was most distributed in Jinghua (3.62 per million), Shaoxing (1.00 per million) and Taizhou (0.81 per million) prefecture level cities. Outbreaks were confirmed in Yiwu, Keqiao and Huangyan counties in 2009, 2015, and 2016, respectively. 73.9% cases would seek medical advice within two days after onset and be confirmed within 9 days after onset. 75.6% would be recognized as dengue within 8 days after their first visit. The time intervals between onset and confirmation (median 7 vs 6 days; Wilcoxon rank sum test Z = -2.40, P = 0.016), first visit and confirmation (median 7 vs 6 days; Wilcoxon rank sum test Z = -2.59, P = 0.009) of indigenous cases were significantly longer than those of imported ones. However, the time intervals between onset and first visit for indigenous cases was shorter (median 0 vs 1 days; Wilcoxon rank sum test Z = -2.10, P = 0.036). Fever (99.1%), fatigue (81.9), rash (63.7%), headache (67.2%) and myalgia (52.60%) were the most frequently mentioned symptoms.ConclusionsZhejiang has recently witnessed an increase in incidence and geographic extension of dengue. Timely diagnosis is important to stop local transmission and outbreak.

Dataset Information

Identification and Prediction of Tuberculosis in Eastern China: Analyses from 10-year Population-based Notification Data in Zhejiang Province, China.

Publications

Identification and Prediction of Tuberculosis in Eastern China: Analyses from 10-year Population-based Notification Data in Zhejiang Province, China.

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