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Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics.

ABSTRACT: Safety critical events in robotic applications can often be characterized by forces between the robot end-effector and the environment. One application in which safe interaction between the robot and environment is critical is in the area of medical robots. In this paper, we propose a novel Compact Form Dynamic Linearization Model-Free Prediction (CFDL-MFP) technique to predict future values of any time-series sensor data, such as interaction forces. Existing time series forecasting methods have high computational times which motivates the development of a novel technique. Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting as benchmark, the performance of the proposed model was evaluated in terms of accuracy, computation efficiency, and stability on various force profiles. The proposed algorithm was 11% more accurate than ARIMA and maximum computation time of CFDL-MFP was 4ms, compared to ARIMA (7390ms). Furthermore, we evaluate the model in the special case of predicting needle buckling events, before they occur, by using only axial force and needle-tip position data. The model was evaluated experimentally for robustness with steerable needle insertions into different tissues including gelatin and biological tissue. For a needle insertion velocity of 2.5mm/s, the proposed algorithm was able to predict needle buckling 2.03s sooner than human detections. In biological tissue, no false positive or false negative buckling detections occurred and the rates were low in artificial tissue. The proposed forecasting model can be used to ensure safe robot interactions with delicate environments by predicting adverse force-based events before they occur.

SUBMITTER: Narayan M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7205263 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics.

Narayan Meenakshi M Fey Ann Majewicz AM

PloS one 20200507 5

Safety critical events in robotic applications can often be characterized by forces between the robot end-effector and the environment. One application in which safe interaction between the robot and environment is critical is in the area of medical robots. In this paper, we propose a novel Compact Form Dynamic Linearization Model-Free Prediction (CFDL-MFP) technique to predict future values of any time-series sensor data, such as interaction forces. Existing time series forecasting methods have ...[more]

PMID: 32379827

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Project description:BackgroundThe recent COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the challenges for traditional forecasting. Prediction markets are a promising way to generate collective forecasts and could potentially be enhanced if high-quality crowdsourced inputs were identified and preferentially weighted for likely accuracy in real-time with machine learning.MethodsWe aim to leverage human prediction markets with real-time machine weighting of likely higher accuracy trades to improve performance. The crowd sourced Almanis prediction market longitudinal platform (n = 1822) and Next Generation Social Science (NGS2) platform (n = 103) were utilised.FindingsA 43-feature model predicted accurate forecasters, those with top quintile relative Brier accuracy, with subsequent replication in two out-of-sample datasets (pboth <1 × 10-9). Trades graded by this model as having higher accuracy scores than others produced a greater AUC temporal gain in the overall market after vs before trade. Accuracy score-weighted forecasts had higher accuracy than market forecasts alone, particularly when the two systems disagreed by 5% or more for binary event prediction: the hybrid system demonstrating substantial % AUC gains of 13.2%, p = 1.35 × 10-14 and 13.8%, p = 0.003 in two out-of-sample datasets. When discordant, the hybrid model was correct for COVID-19 event occurrence 72.7% of the time vs 27.3% for market models, p = 0.007. This net classification benefit was replicated in the separate Almanis B dataset, p = 2.4 × 10-7.InterpretationReal-time machine classification followed by weighting human trades according to likely accuracy improves collective forecasting performance. This could provide improved anticipation of and thus response to emerging risks.FundingThis work was supported by an AusIndustry R and D tax incentive program from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Australia, to SlowVoice Pty Ltd. (IR 2101990) and Fellowship (GNT 1110200) and Investigator grant (GNT 1197234) to A-L Ponsonby by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Dataset Information

Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics.

Publications

Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics.

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