Dataset Information

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions.

ABSTRACT: Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are conditionally independent. We also present a novel goodness of fit test tailored to the GuGRP that validates the use of the statistical model for the analysis of recessions. Analyzing recessions in the U.S. and Europe, we demonstrate that the statistical model characterizes well recession inter-arrival times and that the model performs better than simpler, commonly used distributions. In addition, the presented statistical model enables us to compare the adjustment processes in different economies and to forecast the occurrence of future recessions.

SUBMITTER: Tadeu Cristino C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7205267 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions.

Tadeu Cristino Cláudio C Żebrowski Piotr P Wildemeersch Matthias M

PloS one 20200507 5

Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are condition ...[more]

PMID: 32379791

Similar Datasets

Project description:In the wake of a global economic recession secondary to the COVID-19 pandemic, this scoping review seeks to summarize the current quantitative research on the impact of economic recessions on depression, anxiety, traumatic disorders, self-harm, and suicide. Seven research databases (PsycINFO, MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science: Core Collection, National Library of Medicine PubMed, PubMed Central, and Google Scholar) were searched for keywords returning 3412 preliminary results published since 2008 in Organisation for Economic Coordination and Development (OECD)nations. These were screened by both authors for inclusion/exclusion criteria resulting in 127 included articles. Articles included were quantitative studies in OECD countries assessing select mental disorders (depression, anxiety, and trauma-/stress-related disorders) and illness outcomes (self-harm and suicide) during periods of economic recession. Articles were limited to publication from 2008 to 2020, available online in English, and utilizing outcome measures specific to the disorders and outcomes specified above. A significant relationship was found between periods of economic recession and increased depressive symptoms, self-harming behaviour, and suicide during and following periods of recession. Results suggest that existing models for mental health support and strategies for suicide prevention may be less effective than they are in non-recession times. It may be prudent to focus public education and medical treatments on raising awareness and access to supports for populations at higher risk, including those vulnerable to the impacts of job or income loss due to low socioeconomic status preceding the recession or high levels of financial strain, those supporting others financially, approaching retirement, and those in countries with limited social safety nets. Policy makers should be aware of the potential protective nature of unemployment safeguards and labour program investment in mitigating these negative impacts. Limited or inconclusive data were found on the relationship with traumatic disorders and symptoms of anxiety. In addition, research has focused primarily on the working-age adult population with limited data available on children, adolescents, and older adults, leaving room for further research in these areas.

Project description:Quokkas (Setonix brachyurus) are small macropodid marsupials from Western Australia, which are identified as of conservation concern. Studies on their blood analytes exist but involve small sample sizes and are associated with very little information concerning the health of the animals. Blood was collected from free-ranging quokkas from Rottnest Island (n = 113) and mainland (n = 37) Western Australia, between September 2010 and December 2011, to establish haematology and blood chemistry reference intervals. Differences in haematology and blood chemistry between sites (Rottnest Island v mainland) were significant for haematology (HMT, p = 0.003), blood chemistry (BLC, p = 0.001) and peripheral blood cell morphology (PBCM, p = 0.001). Except for alkaline phosphatase, all blood chemistry analytes were higher in mainland animals. There were also differences with time of year in HMT (p = 0.001), BLC (p = 0.001) and PBCM (p = 0.001) for Rottnest Island quokkas. A small sample of captive animals (n = 8) were opportunistically sampled for plasma concentrations of vitamin E and were found to be deficient compared with wild-caught animals. Fifty-eight of the 150 quokkas were also tested for the presence of Salmonella, microfilariae, Macropodid herpesvirus-6, Theileria spp., Babesia spp., trypanosomes, Cryptococcus spp. and other saprophytic fungi. All eight infectious agents were detected in this study. Infectious agents were detected in 24 of these 58 quokkas (41%), with more than one infectious agent detected for all 24 individuals. Salmonella were detected concurrently with microfilariae in 8 of these 24 quokkas, and this mixed infection was associated with lower values across all haematological analytes, with Salmonella having the greater involvement in the decreased haematological values (p < 0.05). There was no evidence for an effect of sex on HMT, BLC and PBCM. Our data provide important haematological and blood chemistry reference intervals for free-ranging quokkas. We applied novel methods of analyses to HMT and BLC that can be used more broadly, aiding identification of potential disease in wildlife.

Project description:Increased availability of data and accessibility of computational tools in recent years have created an unprecedented upsurge of scientific studies driven by statistical analysis. Limitations inherent to statistics impose constraints on the reliability of conclusions drawn from data, so misuse of statistical methods is a growing concern. Hypothesis and significance testing, and the accompanying P-values are being scrutinized as representing the most widely applied and abused practices. One line of critique is that P-values are inherently unfit to fulfill their ostensible role as measures of credibility for scientific hypotheses. It has also been suggested that while P-values may have their role as summary measures of effect, researchers underappreciate the degree of randomness in the P-value. High variability of P-values would suggest that having obtained a small P-value in one study, one is, ne vertheless, still likely to obtain a much larger P-value in a similarly powered replication study. Thus, "replicability of P-value" is in itself questionable. To characterize P-value variability, one can use prediction intervals whose endpoints reflect the likely spread of P-values that could have been obtained by a replication study. Unfortunately, the intervals currently in use, the frequentist P-intervals, are based on unrealistic implicit assumptions. Namely, P-intervals are constructed with the assumptions that imply substantial chances of encountering large values of effect size in an observational study, which leads to bias. The long-run frequentist probability provided by P-intervals is similar in interpretation to that of the classical confidence intervals, but the endpoints of any particular interval lack interpretation as probabilistic bounds for the possible spread of future P-values that may have been obtained in replication studies. Along with classical frequentist intervals, there exists a Bayesian viewpoint toward interval construction in which the endpoints of an interval have a meaningful probabilistic interpretation. We propose Bayesian intervals for prediction of P-value variability in prospective replication studies. Contingent upon approximate prior knowledge of the effect size distribution, our proposed Bayesian intervals have endpoints that are directly interpretable as probabilistic bounds for replication P-values, and they are resistant to selection bias. We showcase our approach by its application to P-values reported for five psychiatric disorders by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium group.

Dataset Information

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions.

Publications

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets