A model-based approach for simulating adaptive clinical studies with surrogate endpoints used for interim decision-making.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7205753 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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A model-based approach for simulating adaptive clinical studies with surrogate endpoints used for interim decision-making.
Chen Xiaotian X Hartford Alan A Zhao Jun J
Contemporary clinical trials communications 20200419
In clinical trials, when exploring multiple dose groups to establish efficacy and safety on one or more selected doses, adaptive designs with interim dose selection are often used for dropping less effective dose groups. When it takes a long time to observe primary outcomes, utilizing information on a surrogate endpoint available at an earlier interim may be preferred for selecting which dose to continue. We propose a Bayesian model-based approach where historical data can be leveraged to incorp ...[more]
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Project description:Background/objectiveSurrogate decision makers for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are frequently asked to make difficult decisions on use of life-sustaining treatments. We explored ICH surrogate satisfaction with decision making and experience of decision regret using validated measures in a prospective multicenter study.MethodsCases of non-traumatic ICH were enrolled from three hospitals (September 2015-December 2016), and surrogate decision makers were invited to complete a self-administered survey. The primary outcome was the 10-item decision-making subscale of the Family Satisfaction in the Intensive Care Unit scale (FSICU-DM, range 0-100, higher is greater satisfaction), and the secondary outcome was the decision regret scale (range 0-100, higher is greater regret). Linear regression models were used to assess the association between satisfaction with decision making and pre-specified covariates using manual backward selection.ResultsA total of 73 surrogates were approached for participation (in person or mail), with 48 surrogates returning a completed survey (median surrogate age 60.5 years, 63% female, 77% white). Patients had a median age of 72.5, 54% were female, with a median admission Glasgow coma scale of 10, in-hospital mortality of 31%, and 56% with an in-hospital DNR order. Physicians commonly made treatment recommendation (> 50%) regarding brain surgery or transitions to comfort measures, but rarely made recommendations (< 20%) regarding DNR orders. Surrogate satisfaction with decision making was generally high (median FSICU-DM 85, IQR 57.5-95). Factors associated with higher satisfaction on multivariable analysis included greater use of shared decision making (P < 0.0001), younger patient age (p = 0.02), ICH score of 3 or higher (p = 0.03), and surrogate relationship (spouse vs. other, p = 0.02). Timing of DNR orders was not associated with satisfaction (P > 0.25). Decision regret scores were generally low (median 12.5, IQR 0-31.3).ConclusionsConsidering the severity and abruptness of ICH, it is reassuring that surrogate satisfaction with decision making was generally high and regret was generally low. However, more work is needed to define the appropriate outcome measures and optimal methods of recruitment for studies of surrogate decision makers of ICH patients.
| S-EPMC7736185 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 21st Century Cures Act was passed in December, 2016, and included a number of provisions to facilitate drug approval. Considerable discussion was generated related to some aspects of the Act, especially to the use of surrogate endpoints (SEs) as a means to shorten the time required prior to receiving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval.1 The objective of this analysis was to identify the use and outcomes of SEs and clinical endpoints in pediatric drug development trials.
| S-EPMC6481930 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hospitalized patients frequently lack decision-making ability, yet little is known about physicians' approaches to surrogate decision making.To describe physicians' experiences with surrogate communication and decision making for hospitalized adults.Cross-sectional written survey.Two hundred eighty-one physicians who recently cared for adult inpatients in one academic and two community hospitals.Key features of physicians' most recent surrogate decision-making experience, including the nature of the decision, the physician's reaction, physician-surrogate communication and physician-surrogate agreement about the best course of action.Nearly three fourths of physicians (73%, n = 206) had made a major decision with a surrogate during the past month. Although nearly all patients (90%) had a surrogate, physicians reported trouble contacting the surrogate in 21% of cases. Conflict was rare (5%), and a majority of physicians agreed with surrogates about the medical facts (77%), prognosis (72%) and best course of action (65%). After adjustment for patient, physician and decision characteristics, agreement about the best course of action was more common among surrogates for older patients [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.17 for each decade; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.31], ICU patients (PR = 1.40; CI 1.14-1.51) and patients who had previously discussed their wishes (PR = 1.60; CI 1.30-1.76), and less common when surrogates were difficult to contact (PR = 0.59; CI 0.29-0.92) or when the physician self-identified as Asian (PR = 0.60; CI 0.30-0.94).Surrogate decision making is common among hospitalized adults. Physician-surrogate decision making may be enhanced if patients discuss their preferences in advance and if physician contact with surrogate decision makers is facilitated.
| S-EPMC2726893 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundAround the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life.MethodsHere, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations.ResultsAssuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates).ConclusionsThese findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.
| S-EPMC3495022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent discussions about health care reform have raised questions regarding the value of advance directives.MethodsWe used data from survey proxies in the Health and Retirement Study involving adults 60 years of age or older who had died between 2000 and 2006 to determine the prevalence of the need for decision making and lost decision-making capacity and to test the association between preferences documented in advance directives and outcomes of surrogate decision making.ResultsOf 3746 subjects, 42.5% required decision making, of whom 70.3% lacked decision-making capacity and 67.6% of those subjects, in turn, had advance directives. Subjects who had living wills were more likely to want limited care (92.7%) or comfort care (96.2%) than all care possible (1.9%); 83.2% of subjects who requested limited care and 97.1% of subjects who requested comfort care received care consistent with their preferences. Among the 10 subjects who requested all care possible, only 5 received it; however, subjects who requested all care possible were far more likely to receive aggressive care as compared with those who did not request it (adjusted odds ratio, 22.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.45 to 115.00). Subjects with living wills were less likely to receive all care possible (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.56) than were subjects without living wills. Subjects who had assigned a durable power of attorney for health care were less likely to die in a hospital (adjusted odds ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.93) or receive all care possible (adjusted odds ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.86) than were subjects who had not assigned a durable power of attorney for health care.ConclusionsBetween 2000 and 2006, many elderly Americans needed decision making near the end of life at a time when most lacked the capacity to make decisions. Patients who had prepared advance directives received care that was strongly associated with their preferences. These findings support the continued use of advance directives.
| S-EPMC2880881 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionMost medical decisions in pediatrics involve surrogate decision-makers. Because of this, pediatricians are even more likely to encounter ethical conflicts and dilemmas surrounding medical decision-making. Pediatricians continue to report a lack of preparedness to manage situations when conflicts and dilemmas arise, suggesting a gap in education. In response to this gap, we developed a module on the ethics of medical decision-making focused on pediatrics.MethodsThe Ethics of Pediatric and Young Adult Medical Decision-Making module included three case-based, small-group sessions on decision-making capacity and advance directives, parental decision-making, and informed consent and adolescent assent. Session materials were developed based on expert opinion and previously published content. Sessions were developed for pediatric residents; however, medical students rotating on pediatrics also participated in most sessions. Trainees completed pre- and postsession assessments of comfort and understanding.ResultsAn average of 19 learners completed each session. Understanding of ethical principles increased after each session. Seventy-nine percent of trainees reported increased understanding of ethical principles related to decision-making capacity, and 88% reported increased understanding of standards of surrogate decision-making. Following the session on obtaining consent and assent, 71% of trainees reported comfort obtaining consent compared to 57% reporting comfort obtaining assent.DiscussionThis module successfully increased trainee comfort with many ethical issues related to pediatric medical decision-making. Areas where trainee comfort was still low postsession-specifically, obtaining consent or assent-are content areas where actual practice of these psychomotor skills is likely necessary.
| S-EPMC7880251 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IMPORTANCE:Hospitalized older adults often lack decisional capacity, but outside of the intensive care unit and end-of-life care settings, little is known about the frequency of decision making by family members or other surrogates or its implications for hospital care. OBJECTIVE:To describe the scope of surrogate decision making, the hospital course, and outcomes for older adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Prospective, observational study conducted in medicine and medical intensive care unit services of 2 hospitals in 1 Midwestern city in 1083 hospitalized older adults identified by their physicians as requiring major medical decisions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Clinical characteristics, hospital outcomes, nature of major medical decisions, and surrogate involvement. RESULTS:According to physician reports, at 48 hours of hospitalization, 47.4% (95% CI, 44.4%-50.4%) of older adults required at least some surrogate involvement, including 23.0% (20.6%-25.6%) with all decisions made by a surrogate. Among patients who required a surrogate for at least 1 decision within 48 hours, 57.2% required decisions about life-sustaining care (mostly addressing code status), 48.6% about procedures and operations, and 46.9% about discharge planning. Patients who needed a surrogate experienced a more complex hospital course with greater use of ventilators (2.5% of patients who made decisions and 13.2% of patients who required any surrogate decisions; P <?.001), artificial nutrition (1.7% of patients and 14.4% of surrogates; P <?.001), and length of stay (median, 6 days for patients and 7 days for surrogates; P <?.001). They were more likely to be discharged to an extended-care facility (21.2% with patient decisions and 40.9% with surrogate decisions; P <?.001) and had higher hospital mortality (0.0% patients and 5.9% surrogates; P <?.001). Most surrogates were daughters (58.9%), sons (25.0%), or spouses (20.6%). Overall, only 7.4% had a living will and 25.0% had a health care representative document in the medical record. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Surrogate decision making occurs for nearly half of hospitalized older adults and includes both complete decision making by the surrogate and joint decision making by the patient and surrogate. Surrogates commonly face a broad range of decisions in the intensive care unit and the hospital ward setting. Hospital functions should be redesigned to account for the large and growing role of surrogates, supporting them as they make health care decisions.
| S-EPMC3947481 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is a longstanding concern about the accuracy of surrogate consent in representing the health care and research preferences of those who lose their ability to decide for themselves. We sought informed, deliberative views of the older general public (?50 years old) regarding their willingness to participate in dementia research and to grant leeway to future surrogates to choose an option contrary to their stated wishes.Methodology/principal findings503 persons aged 50+ recruited by random digit dialing were randomly assigned to one of three groups: deliberation, education, or control. The deliberation group attended an all-day education/peer deliberation session; the education group received written information only. Participants were surveyed at baseline, after the deliberation session (or equivalent time), and one month after the session, regarding their willingness to participate in dementia research and to give leeway to surrogates, regarding studies of varying risk-benefit profiles (a lumbar puncture study, a drug randomized controlled trial, a vaccine randomized controlled trial, and an early phase gene transfer trial). At baseline, 48% (gene transfer scenario) to 92% (drug RCT) were willing to participate in future dementia research. A majority of respondents (57-71% depending on scenario) were willing to give leeway to future surrogate decision-makers. Democratic deliberation increased willingness to participate in all scenarios, to grant leeway in 3 of 4 scenarios (lumbar puncture, vaccine, and gene transfer), and to enroll loved ones in research in all scenarios. On average, respondents were more willing to volunteer themselves for research than to enroll their loved ones.Conclusions/significanceMost people were willing to grant leeway to their surrogates, and this willingness was either sustained or increased after democratic deliberation, suggesting that the attitude toward leeway is a reliable opinion. Eliciting a person's current preferences about future research participation should also involve eliciting his or her leeway preferences.
| S-EPMC3561414 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInstances of surrogate decision-making are expected to increase with the rise in hospitalised older adults in Japan. Few large-scale studies have comprehensively examined the entire surrogate decision-making process. This study aimed to gather information to assess the current state of surrogate decision-making in Japan.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted using online questionnaires. A total of 1000 surrogate decision-makers responded to the questionnaire. We examined the characteristics of surrogate decision-makers and patients, content of surrogate decision-making meeting regarding life-sustaining treatment between the doctors and surrogate decision-makers, extent of involvement of the various parties in the surrogate decision-making process, judgement grounds for surrogate decision-making, and frequency of involvement in the surrogate decision-making process.ResultsOf the participants, 70.5% were male and 48.3% were eldest sons. Only 7.6% of the patients had left a written record of their preferences and 48.8% of the surrogates reported no knowledge of the patient having expressed their prior intentions regarding medical care in any form. Respondents indicated that their family meetings with healthcare professionals mostly included the information recommended by guidelines in a surrogate decision-making meeting in Japan. Most participants reported a good understanding of the meeting content. Although many participants based their decisions on multiple grounds, surrogates' considerations may not adequately reflect respect for patient autonomy in Japan. Specifically, the eldest son considered his own preference more frequently than that of the other surrogate decision-makers. In 26.1% of the cases, either zero or one family meeting with healthcare professionals was held. In these cases, significantly fewer decisions involved the participation of healthcare professionals other than the doctor compared to cases with multiple meetings.ConclusionsSurrogate decisions in Japan are most commonly made by eldest sons and may not frequently consider the perspectives of other surrogates. The finding that patient preferences were rarely known suggests a role for increased advance care planning.
| S-EPMC8464150 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe value of advance care planning (ACP) has been the subject of recent debate because of mixed findings. This may be, in part, because trials presume that researchers and patient spokespersons share the same understanding of the role of a surrogate decision-maker. We explored how patient surrogates conceptualized and defined surrogate decision-making vs patient advocacy. Understanding how surrogates perceive their role in decision-making is important to avoid misinterpreting the effectiveness of ACP interventions.ObjectiveTo understand how patient spokespersons distinguish surrogate decision-making from patient advocacy.Design, setting, and participantsThis qualitative thematic analysis of a subsample of participants from a randomized clinical trial at a tertiary medical center was conducted from September 27, 2012, to June 30, 2021. Participants (n = 36) were the designated spokespersons of adult patients with severe illness who had made a surrogate decision on behalf of the patient since the last follow-up. Analysis was performed from March 21, 2021, to February 7, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresSemistructured interviews examined how patient spokespersons conceptualize differences between surrogate decision-making and advocacy.ResultsThe study included 36 patient spokespersons (32 women [88.9%]; mean [SD] age, 62.1 [11.8] years) and found substantial variability in how the spokespersons conceptualized what it means to make a surrogate decision for another. A total of 10 spokespersons (27.8%) did not distinguish surrogate decision-making from advocacy. There were 5 definitions for both surrogate decision-making and advocacy. The 3 most common definitions of surrogate decision-making were (1) acting as the final decision-maker (18 [50.0%]), (2) doing what is best for the patient (8 [22.2%]), and (3) making decisions on behalf of patients so that their wishes are respected (6 [16.7%]). The 3 most common definitions of advocacy were (1) doing what is best for the patient (8 [22.2%]), (2) respecting patients' wishes (6 [16.7%]), and (3) providing support to the patient (6 [16.7%]). The most common pairing of definitions by an individual spokesperson involved defining surrogate decision-making as being the final decision-maker, and defining advocacy as acting in the best interest of the patient (6 [16.7%]).Conclusions and relevanceThis qualitative study found that many spokespersons perceive their roles as surrogate decision-makers differently than clinicians and researchers likely do, often conflating surrogacy with advocacy. These findings may help explain why researchers have found that ACP does not consistently improve traditional outcomes. If spokespersons do not distinguish surrogate decision-making from advocacy, then what is being reported by spokespersons and measured by clinicians and researchers may not accurately reflect the true association of ACP with outcomes.
| S-EPMC9856522 | biostudies-literature