Applying optimal control theory to a spatial simulation model of sudden oak death: ongoing surveillance protects tanoak while conserving biodiversity.

ABSTRACT: Sudden oak death has devastated tree populations across California. However, management might still slow disease spread at local scales. We demonstrate how to unambiguously characterize effective, local management strategies using a detailed, spatially explicit simulation model of spread in a single forest stand. This pre-existing, parameterized simulation is approximated here by a carefully calibrated, non-spatial model, explicitly constructed to be sufficiently simple to allow optimal control theory (OCT) to be applied. By lifting management strategies from the approximate model to the detailed simulation, effective time-dependent controls can be identified. These protect tanoak-a culturally and ecologically important species-while conserving forest biodiversity within a limited budget.

SUBMITTER: Bussell EH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7211482 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature