Dataset Information

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis).

ABSTRACT: The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species.

SUBMITTER: Rocha DG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7211836 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (<i>Atelocynus microtis</i>).

Rocha Daniel G DG de Barros Ferraz Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi KMPM Gonçalves Lucas L Tan Cedric Kai Wei CKW Lemos Frederico G FG Ortiz Carolina C Peres Carlos A CA Negrões Nuno N Antunes André Pinassi AP Rohe Fabio F Abrahams Mark M Zapata-Rios Galo G Teles Davi D Oliveira Tadeu T von Mühlen Eduardo M EM Venticinque Eduardo E Gräbin Diogo M DM Mosquera B Diego D Blake John J Lima Marcela Guimarães Moreira MGM Sampaio Ricardo R Percequillo Alexandre Reis AR Peters Felipe F Payán Esteban E Borges Luiz Henrique Medeiros LHM Calouro Armando Muniz AM Endo Whaldener W Pitman Renata Leite RL Haugaasen Torbjørn T Silva Diego Afonso DA de Melo Fabiano R FR de Moura André Luis Botelho ALB Costa Hugo C M HCM Lugarini Camile C de Sousa Ilnaiara Gonçalves IG Nienow Samuel S Santos Fernanda F Mendes-Oliveiras Ana Cristina AC Del Toro-Orozco Wezddy W D'Amico Ana Rafaela AR Albernaz Ana Luisa AL Ravetta André A do Carmo Elaine Christina Oliveira ECO Ramalho Emiliano E Valsecchi João J Giordano Anthony J AJ Wallace Robert R Macdonald David W DW Sollmann Rahel R

Royal Society open science 20200422 4

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog <i>Atelocynus microtis</i> is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest r ...[more]

PMID: 32431857

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Project description:Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently experiencing low deforestation rates due to its isolation.

Dataset Information

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis).

Publications

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (<i>Atelocynus microtis</i>).

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