Modelling and forecasting art movements with CGANs.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lisi E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7211863 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modelling and forecasting art movements with CGANs.
Lisi Edoardo E Malekzadeh Mohammad M Haddadi Hamed H Lau F Din-Houn FD Flaxman Seth S
Royal Society open science 20200422 4
Conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs) are a recent and popular method for generating samples from a probability distribution conditioned on latent information. The latent information often comes in the form of a discrete label from a small set. We propose a novel method for training CGANs which allows us to condition on a sequence of continuous latent distributions <i>f</i> <sup>(1)</sup>, …, <i>f</i> <sup>(<i>K</i>)</sup>. This training allows CGANs to generate samples from a sequ ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundA widespread and fundamental assumption in the health sciences is that muscle functions are related to a wide variety of conditions, for example pain, ischemic and neurological disorder, exercise and injury. It is therefore highly desirable to study musculoskeletal contributions in clinical applications such as the treatment of muscle injuries, post-surgery evaluations, monitoring of progressive degeneration in neuromuscular disorders, and so on.The spatial image resolution in ultrasound systems has improved tremendously in the last few years and nowadays provides detailed information about tissue characteristics. It is now possible to study skeletal muscles in real-time during activity.MethodsThe ultrasound images are transformed to be congruent and are effectively compressed and stacked in order to be analysed with multivariate techniques. The method is applied to a relevant clinical orthopaedic research field, namely to describe the dynamics in the Achilles tendon and the calf during real-time movements.ResultsThis study introduces a novel method to medical applications that can be used to examine ultrasound image sequences and to detect, visualise and quantify skeletal muscle dynamics and functions.ConclusionsThis new objective method is a powerful tool to use when visualising tissue activity and dynamics of musculoskeletal ultrasound registrations.
| S-EPMC2887375 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Numerous projects (e.g. more than 50% of IT projects) are not finished within budget and cause serious financial problems to the organisations implementing them. It is thus important to be able to predict the cost of projects and cash flows related to them early enough, in order to be able to assess with the necessary anticipation whether the necessary financial means will be available on time and if not, to take in time the necessary measures to solve the menacing problem. In the paper the sources of uncertainty with respect to project cost and cash flows will be identified and their modelling by means of fuzzy sets will be proposed. Such issues neglected in the project management literature as various taxes, duties and impositions, which belong to the area in which project managers are not experts and where they do not follow the detailed regulations, will be discussed too. They are of high importance, because legal changes in this area come often as a surprise for project managers and lead to serious liquidity problems. The approach will be illustrated with a real world case study, in which one of the authors was the member of the project team.
| S-EPMC7351574 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare.Methods and findingsWe introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and lagged dengue cases are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to 6 months ahead. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fit to 19 years (2002-2020) of dengue data at the province level across Vietnam. A superensemble of these models then makes probabilistic predictions of dengue incidence at various future time points aligned with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines. We demonstrate that the superensemble generates more accurate predictions of dengue incidence than the individual models it incorporates across a suite of time horizons and transmission settings. Using historical data, the superensemble made slightly more accurate predictions (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6-148.0) than a baseline model which forecasts the same incidence rate every month (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5-80.5) at lead times of 1 to 3 months, albeit with larger uncertainty. The outbreak detection capability of the superensemble was considerably larger (69%) than that of the baseline model (54.5%). Predictions were most accurate in southern Vietnam, an area that experiences semi-regular seasonal dengue transmission. The system also demonstrated added value across multiple areas compared to previous practice of not using a forecast. We use the system to make a prospective prediction for dengue incidence in Vietnam for the period May to October 2020. Prospective predictions made with the superensemble were slightly more accurate (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102-575) than those made with the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120-168) but had larger uncertainty. Finally, we propose a framework for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions. Despite the demonstrated value of our forecasting system, the approach is limited by the consistency of the dengue case data, as well as the lack of publicly available, continuous, and long-term data sets on mosquito control efforts and serotype-specific case data.ConclusionsThis study shows that by combining detailed Earth observation data, seasonal climate forecasts, and state-of-the-art models, dengue outbreaks can be predicted across a broad range of settings, with enough lead time to meaningfully inform dengue control. While our system omits some important variables not currently available at a subnational scale, the majority of past outbreaks could be predicted up to 3 months ahead. Over the next 2 years, the system will be prospectively evaluated and, if successful, potentially extended to other areas and other climate-sensitive disease systems.
| S-EPMC7971894 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Epidemiological models are powerful tools for evaluating scenarios and visualizing patterns of disease spread, especially when comparing intervention strategies. However, the technical skill required to synthesize and operate computational models frequently renders them beyond the command of the stakeholders who are most impacted by the results. Participatory modelling (PM) strives to restructure the power relationship between modellers and the stakeholders who rely on model insights by involving these stakeholders directly in model development and application; yet, a systematic literature review indicates little adoption of these techniques in epidemiology, especially plant epidemiology. We investigate the potential for PM to integrate stakeholder and researcher knowledge, using Phytophthora ramorum and the resulting sudden oak death disease as a case study. Recent introduction of a novel strain (European 1 or EU1) in southwestern Oregon has prompted significant concern and presents an opportunity for coordinated management to minimize regional pathogen impacts. Using a PM framework, we worked with local stakeholders to develop an interactive forecasting tool for evaluating landscape-scale control strategies. We find that model co-development has great potential to empower stakeholders in the design, development and application of epidemiological models for disease control. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
| S-EPMC6558554 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since the first suspected case of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters. In particular, we provide an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves. On the basis of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIDR) model, we provide estimations of the basic reproduction number (R0), and the per day infection mortality and recovery rates. By calibrating the parameters of the SIRD model to the reported data, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter three weeks ahead, i.e. until February 29. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, which can be considered only as a subset of the actual numbers of infected and recovered cases in the total population, we have repeated the calculations under a second scenario that considers twenty times the number of confirmed infected cases and forty times the number of recovered, leaving the number of deaths unchanged. Based on the reported data, the expected value of R0 as computed considering the period from the 11th of January until the 18th of January, using the official counts of confirmed cases was found to be ∼4.6, while the one computed under the second scenario was found to be ∼3.2. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be ∼2.6 based on confirmed cases and ∼2 based on the second scenario. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of infected could reach 180,000 (with a lower bound of 45,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of the up to the 10th of February reported data, the death toll might exceed 2,700 (as a lower bound) by February 29. Our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the case fatality ratio from January 26 to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but mainly because of the fact that the actual cumulative numbers of infected and recovered cases in the population most likely are much higher than the reported ones. Thus, in a scenario where we have taken twenty times the confirmed number of infected and forty times the confirmed number of recovered cases, the case fatality ratio is around ∼0.15% in the total population. Importantly, based on this scenario, simulations suggest a slow down of the outbreak in Hubei at the end of February.
| S-EPMC7108749 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Inter-hospital patient transfers (direct transfers) between healthcare facilities have been shown to contribute to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. However, the impact of indirect transfers (patients re-admitted from the community to the same or different hospital) is not well studied. This work aims to study the contribution of indirect transfers to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. To address this aim, a hybrid network-deterministic model to simulate the spread of multiresistant pathogens in a healthcare system was developed for the region of Lower Saxony (Germany). The model accounts for both, direct and indirect transfers of patients. Intra-hospital pathogen transmission is governed by a SIS model expressed by a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that the proposed model reproduces the basic properties of healthcare-associated pathogen spread. They also show the importance of indirect transfers: restricting the pathogen spread to direct transfers only leads to 4.2% system wide prevalence. However, adding indirect transfers leads to an increase in the overall prevalence by a factor of 4 (18%). In addition, we demonstrated that the final prevalence in the individual healthcare facilities depends on average length of stay in a way described by a non-linear concave function. Moreover, we demonstrate that the network parameters of the model may be derived from administrative admission/discharge records. In particular, they are sufficient to obtain inter-hospital transfer probabilities, and to express the patients' transfers as a Markov process. Using the proposed model, we show that indirect transfers of patients are equally or even more important as direct transfers for the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network.
| S-EPMC7728397 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Op art was created, in part, to produce illusions of movement. Given that dyslexics have been shown to have impaired visuo-postural axis deficits, it may be possible that dyslexics see illusions different than their non-dyslexic peers. To test this theory, we measured eye movement and posture in 47 dyslexic (18 female, 29 male; mean age 15.4) and 44 non dyslexic (22 female, 22 male; mean age 14.8) adolescents while they viewed three works of art by Op artist Bridget Riley. They then responded to a questionnaire about how they felt while viewing the artworks. Dyslexics demonstrated significantly slower saccades in terms of average velocity that was particularly disturbed in paintings that manipulated depth. Subjectively, dyslexics felt much more destabilized compared to their peers; however, there was not a significant difference in objective postural measurements between the two groups. The sensation of destabilization was positively correlated with appreciation in non-dyslexic adolescents. These subjective results suggest that dyslexics may be more sensitive to movement in depth, which could be related to the instability in vergence movements. Whereas this instability represents a hinderance in relation to reading, it could be an advantage while viewing paintings such as these.
| S-EPMC9312852 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7289234 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bluetongue is a notifiable disease of ruminants which, in 2007, occurred for the first time in England. We present the first model for bluetongue that explicitly incorporates farm to farm movements of the two main hosts, as well as vector dispersal. The model also includes a seasonal vector to host ratio and dynamic restriction zones that evolve as infection is detected. Batch movements of sheep were included by modelling degree of mixing at markets. We investigate the transmission of bluetongue virus between farms in eastern England (the focus of the outbreak). Results indicate that most parameters affecting outbreak size relate to vectors and that the infection generally cannot be maintained without between-herd vector transmission. Movement restrictions are effective at reducing outbreak size, and a targeted approach would be as effective as a total movement ban. The model framework is flexible and can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases of livestock.
| S-EPMC3307041 | biostudies-literature
Project description:How organisms move and disperse is crucial to understand how population dynamics relates to the spatial heterogeneity of the environment. Random walk (RW) models are typical tools to describe movement patterns. Whether Lévy or alternative RW better describes forager movements is keenly debated. We get around this issue using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). GPD includes as specific cases Normal, exponential and power law distributions, which underlie Brownian, Poisson-like and Lévy walks respectively. Whereas previous studies typically confronted a limited set of candidate models, GPD lets the most likely RW model emerge from the data. We illustrate the wide applicability of the method using GPS-tracked seabird foraging movements and fishing vessel movements tracked by Vessel Monitoring System (VMS), both collected in the Peruvian pelagic ecosystem. The two parameters from the fitted GPD, a scale and a shape parameter, provide a synoptic characterization of the observed movement in terms of characteristic scale and diffusive property. They reveal and quantify the variability, among species and individuals, of the spatial strategies selected by predators foraging on a common prey field. The GPD parameters constitute relevant metrics for (1) providing a synthetic and pattern-oriented description of movement, (2) using top predators as ecosystem indicators and (3) studying the variability of spatial behaviour among species or among individuals with different personalities.
| S-EPMC4501722 | biostudies-literature