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Economic Insecurity and Deaths of Despair in US Counties.

ABSTRACT: Recent research has implicated economic insecurity in increasing midlife death rates and "deaths of despair," including suicide, chronic liver disease, and drug and alcohol poisoning. In this ecological longitudinal study, we evaluated the association between changes in economic insecurity and increases in deaths of despair and midlife all-cause mortality in US counties during 2000-2015. We extended a previously developed measure of economic insecurity using indicators from the Census and Federal Reserve Bank in US counties for the years 2000 and 2010. Linear regression models were used to estimate the association of change in economic insecurity with change in death rates through 2015. Counties experiencing elevated economic insecurity in either 2000 or 2010 had higher rates of deaths of despair and all-cause midlife mortality at baseline but similar rates of increase in deaths of despair from 2001 to 2015 compared with counties with stable low economic insecurity. Counties in the highest tertile of economic insecurity in 2000 and 2010 had 41% (95% confidence interval: 1.36, 1.47) higher midlife mortality rates at baseline and a rate of increase of 2% more per 5-year period (95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.03) than counties with stable low economic insecurity. Economic insecurity may represent a population-level driver of US death trends.

SUBMITTER: Knapp EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7212405 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Economic Insecurity and Deaths of Despair in US Counties.

Knapp Emily A EA Bilal Usama U Dean Lorraine T LT Lazo Mariana M Celentano David D DD

American journal of epidemiology 20191201 12

Recent research has implicated economic insecurity in increasing midlife death rates and "deaths of despair," including suicide, chronic liver disease, and drug and alcohol poisoning. In this ecological longitudinal study, we evaluated the association between changes in economic insecurity and increases in deaths of despair and midlife all-cause mortality in US counties during 2000-2015. We extended a previously developed measure of economic insecurity using indicators from the Census and Federa ...[more]

PMID: 31172197

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Project description:BackgroundA startling population health phenomenon has been unfolding since the turn of the 21st century. Whites in the United States, who customarily have the most favorable mortality profile of all racial groups, have experienced rising mortality rates, without a commensurate rise in other racial groups. The two leading hypotheses to date are that either contemporaneous economic conditions or longer-term (post-1970s) economic transformations have led to declining economic and social prospects of low-educated whites, culminating in "deaths of despair." We re-examine these hypotheses and investigate a third hypothesis: mortality increases are attributable to (false) perceptions of whites that they are losing social status.MethodsUsing administrative and survey data, we examined trends and correlations between race-, age- and, education-specific mortality and a range of economic and social indicators. We also conducted a county-level fixed effects model to determine whether changes in the Republican share of voters during presidential elections, as a marker of growing perceptions of social status threat, was associated with changes in working-age white mortality from 2000 to 2016, adjusting for demographic and economic covariates.FindingsRising white mortality is not restricted to the lowest education bracket and is occurring deeper into the educational distribution. Neither short-term nor long-term economic factors can themselves account for rising white mortality, because parallel trends (and more adverse levels) of these factors were being experienced by blacks, whose mortality rates are not rising. Instead, perceptions - misperceptions - of whites that their social status is being threatened by their declining economic circumstances seems best able to reconcile the observed population health patterns.ConclusionRising white mortality in the United States is not explained by traditional social and economic population health indicators, but instead by a perceived decline in relative group status on the part of whites - despite no actual loss in relative group position.

Project description:ImportanceFood insecurity is prevalent among racial/ethnic minority populations in the US. To date, few studies have examined the association between pre-COVID-19 experiences of food insecurity and COVID-19 infection rates through a race/ethnicity lens.ObjectiveTo examine the associations of race/ethnicity and past experiences of food insecurity with COVID-19 infection rates and the interactions of race/ethnicity and food insecurity, while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, risk exposure, and geographic confounders.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study examined the associations of race/ethnicity and food insecurity with cumulative COVID-19 infection rates in 3133 US counties, as of July 21 and December 14, 2020. Data were analyzed from November 2020 through March 2021.ExposuresRacial/ethnic minority groups who experienced food insecurity.Main outcomes and measuresThe dependent variable was COVID-19 infections per 1000 residents. The independent variables of interest were race/ethnicity, food insecurity, and their interactions.ResultsAmong 3133 US counties, the mean (SD) racial/ethnic composition was 9.0% (14.3%) Black residents, 9.6% (13.8%) Hispanic residents, 2.3% (7.3%) American Indian or Alaska Native residents, 1.7% (3.2%) Asian American or Pacific Islander residents, and 76.1% (20.1%) White residents. The mean (SD) proportion of women was 49.9% (2.3%), and the mean (SD) proportion of individuals aged 65 years or older was 19.3% (4.7%). In these counties, large Black and Hispanic populations were associated with increased COVID-19 infection rates in July 2020. An increase of 1 SD in the percentage of Black and Hispanic residents in a county was associated with an increase in infection rates per 1000 residents of 2.99 (95% CI, 2.04 to 3.94; P < .001) and 2.91 (95% CI, 0.39 to 5.43; P = .02), respectively. By December, a large Black population was no longer associated with increased COVID-19 infection rates. However, a 1-SD increase in the percentage of Black residents in counties with high prevalence of food insecurity was associated with an increase in infections per 1000 residents of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.33 to 1.47; P = .003). Similarly, a 1-SD increase in the percentage of American Indian or Alaska Native residents in counties with high levels of food insecurity was associated with an increase in COVID-19 infections per 1000 residents of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.06 to 1.08; P = .03). By contrast, a 1-SD increase in Hispanic populations in a county remained independently associated with a 5.64 (95% CI, 3.54 to 7.75; P < .001) increase in infection rates per 1000 residents in December 2020 vs 2.91 in July 2020. Furthermore, while a 1-SD increase in the proportion of Asian American or Pacific Islander residents was associated with a decrease in infection rates per 1000 residents of -1.39 (95% CI, -2.29 to 0.49; P = .003), the interaction with food insecurity revealed a similar association (interaction coefficient, -1.48; 95% CI, -2.26 to -0.70; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study sheds light on the association of race/ethnicity and past experiences of food insecurity with COVID-19 infection rates in the United States. These findings suggest that the channels through which various racial/ethnic minority population concentrations were associated with COVID-19 infection rates were markedly different during the pandemic.

Dataset Information

Economic Insecurity and Deaths of Despair in US Counties.

Publications

Economic Insecurity and Deaths of Despair in US Counties.

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