Dataset Information

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

ABSTRACT: France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8-4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8-7.2) of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

SUBMITTER: Salje H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7223792 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

Salje Henrik H Tran Kiem Cécile C Lefrancq Noémie N Courtejoie Noémie N Bosetti Paolo P Paireau Juliette J Andronico Alessio A Hozé Nathanaël N Richet Jehanne J Dubost Claire-Lise CL Le Strat Yann Y Lessler Justin J Levy-Bruhl Daniel D Fontanet Arnaud A Opatowski Lulla L Boelle Pierre-Yves PY Cauchemez Simon S

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20200513 6500

France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across ...[more]

PMID: 32404476

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Project description:Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Colombia in 2020, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented as national emergencies in most of the country's municipalities, starting with a lockdown on March 20th, 2020. Recently, approaches that combine movement data (measured as the number of commuters between units), metapopulation models to describe disease dynamics subdividing the population into Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infected-Recovered-Diseased and statistical inference algorithms have been pointed as a practical approach to both nowcast and forecast the number of cases and deaths. We used an iterated filtering (IF) framework to estimate the model transmission parameters using the reported data across 281 municipalities from March to late October in locations with more than 50 reported deaths and cases in Colombia. Since the model is high dimensional (6 state variables in every municipality), inference on those parameters is highly non-trivial, so we used an Ensemble-Adjustment-Kalman-Filter (EAKF) to estimate time variable system states and parameters. Our results show the model's ability to capture the characteristics of the outbreak in the country and provide estimates of the epidemiological parameters in time at the national level. Importantly, these estimates could become the base for planning future interventions as well as evaluating the impact of NPIs on the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and the critical epidemiological parameters, such as the contact rate or the reporting rate. However, our forecast presents some inconsistency as it overestimates the deaths for some locations as Medellín. Nevertheless, our approach demonstrates that real-time, publicly available ensemble forecasts can provide short-term predictions of reported COVID-19 deaths in Colombia. Therefore, this model can be used as a forecasting tool to evaluate disease dynamics and aid policymakers in infectious outbreak management and control.

Dataset Information

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

Publications

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

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