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Predicting the impact of patient and private provider behavior on diagnostic delay for pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India: A simulation modeling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in India continues to be high due, in large part, to long delays experienced by patients before successful diagnosis and treatment initiation, especially in the private sector. This diagnostic delay is driven by patients' inclination to switch between different types of providers and providers' inclination to delay ordering of accurate diagnostic tests relevant to TB. Our objective is to quantify the impact of changes in these behavioral characteristics of providers and patients on diagnostic delay experienced by pulmonary TB patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We developed a discrete event simulation model of patients' diagnostic pathways that captures key behavioral characteristics of providers (time to order a test) and patients (time to switch to another provider). We used an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters underlying these behavioral characteristics, with quantitative data encoded from detailed interviews of 76 and 64 pulmonary TB patients in the 2 Indian cities of Mumbai and Patna, respectively, which were conducted between April and August 2014. We employed the estimated model to simulate different counterfactual scenarios of diagnostic pathways under altered behavioral characteristics of providers and patients to predict their potential impact on the diagnostic delay. Private healthcare providers including chemists were the first point of contact for the majority of TB patients in Mumbai (70%) and Patna (94%). In Mumbai, 45% of TB patients first approached less-than-fully-qualified providers (LTFQs), who take 28.71 days on average for diagnosis. About 61% of these patients switched to other providers without a diagnosis. Our model estimates that immediate testing for TB by LTFQs at the first visit (at the current level of diagnostic accuracy) could reduce the average diagnostic delay from 35.53 days (95% CI: 34.60, 36.46) to 18.72 days (95% CI: 18.01, 19.43). In Patna, 61% of TB patients first approached fully qualified providers (FQs), who take 9.74 days on average for diagnosis. Similarly, immediate testing by FQs at the first visit (at the current level of diagnostic accuracy) could reduce the average diagnostic delay from 23.39 days (95% CI: 22.77, 24.02) to 11.16 days (95% CI: 10.52, 11.81). Improving the diagnostic accuracy of providers per se, without reducing the time to testing, was not predicted to lead to any reduction in diagnostic delay. Our study was limited because of its restricted geographic scope, small sample size, and possible recall bias, which are typically associated with studies of patient pathways using patient interviews. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we found that encouraging private providers to order definitive TB diagnostic tests earlier during patient consultation may have substantial impact on reducing diagnostic delay in these urban Indian settings. These results should be combined with disease transmission models to predict the impact of changes in provider behavior on TB incidence.

SUBMITTER: Deo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7224455 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the impact of patient and private provider behavior on diagnostic delay for pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India: A simulation modeling study.

Deo Sarang S Singh Simrita S Jha Neha N Arinaminpathy Nimalan N Dewan Puneet P

PLoS medicine 20200514 5

<h4>Background</h4>Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in India continues to be high due, in large part, to long delays experienced by patients before successful diagnosis and treatment initiation, especially in the private sector. This diagnostic delay is driven by patients' inclination to switch between different types of providers and providers' inclination to delay ordering of accurate diagnostic tests relevant to TB. Our objective is to quantify the impact of changes in these behavioral characteris ...[more]

PMID: 32407407

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Project description:Early detection and diagnosis of tuberculosis remain major global priorities for tuberculosis control. Few studies have used a qualitative approach to investigate the social determinants contributing to diagnostic delay and none have compared data collected from individual, community, and health-system levels. We aimed to characterize the social determinants that contribute to diagnostic delay among persons diagnosed with tuberculosis living in resource-constrained settings.Data were collected in public health facilities with high tuberculosis incidence in 19 districts of Lima, Peru. Semi-structured interviews with persons diagnosed with tuberculosis (n = 105) and their family members (n = 63) explored health-seeking behaviours, community perceptions of tuberculosis and socio-demographic circumstances. Focus groups (n = 6) were conducted with health personnel (n = 35) working in the National Tuberculosis Program. All interview data were transcribed and analysed using a grounded theory approach. The median delay between symptom onset and the public health facility visit that led to the first positive diagnostic sample was 57 days (interquartile range 28-126). The great majority of persons diagnosed with tuberculosis distrusted the public health system and sought care at public health facilities only after exhausting other options. It was universally agreed that persons diagnosed with tuberculosis faced discrimination by public and health personnel. Self-medication with medicines bought at local pharmacies was reported as the most common initial health-seeking behaviour due to the speed and low-cost of treatment in pharmacies. Most persons diagnosed with tuberculosis initially perceived their illness as a simple virus.Diagnostic delay was common and prolonged. When individuals reached a threshold of symptom severity, they addressed their health with the least time-consuming, most economically feasible, and well-known healthcare option available to them. In high-burden settings, more human and material resources are required to promote tuberculosis case-finding initiatives, reduce tuberculosis associated stigma and address the social determinants underlying diagnostic delay.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Population-based registries have been promoted as an effective method to improve childhood immunization rates, yet rates of registry participation in the private sector are low. We sought to describe, through a national overview, the perspectives of childhood immunization providers in private practice regarding factors associated with participation or non-participation in immunization registries. METHODS: Two mailed surveys, one for 264 private practices identified as registry non-participants and the other for 971 identified as registry participants, from 15 of the 31 states with population-based statewide immunization registries. Frequency distributions were calculated separately for non-participants and participants regarding the physician-reported factors that influenced decisions related to registry participation. Pearson chi-square tests of independence were used to assess associations among categorical variables. RESULTS: Overall response rate was 62% (N = 756). Among non-participants, easy access to records of vaccines provided at other sites (N = 101, 68%) and printable immunization records (N = 82, 55%) were most often cited as "very important" potential benefits of a registry, while the most commonly cited barriers to participation were too much cost/staff time (N = 36, 38%) and that the practice has its own system for recording and monitoring immunizations (N = 35, 37%). Among registry participants, most reported using the registry to input data on vaccines administered (N = 326, 87%) and to review immunization records of individual patients (N = 302, 81%). A minority reported using it to assess their practice's immunization coverage (N = 110, 29%) or generate reminder/recall notices (N = 54, 14%). Few participants reported experiencing "significant" problems with the registry; the most often cited was cost/staff time to use the registry (N = 71, 20%). CONCLUSION: Most registry participants report active participation with few problems. The problems they report are generally consistent with the barriers anticipated by non-participants, but did not impede participation. Recruitment efforts should focus on demonstrating the benefits of the registry to providers. In addition, many participants are not utilizing the full range of registry features; further study is needed to determine how best to increase use of these features.

Dataset Information

Predicting the impact of patient and private provider behavior on diagnostic delay for pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India: A simulation modeling study.

Publications

Predicting the impact of patient and private provider behavior on diagnostic delay for pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India: A simulation modeling study.

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