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Predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score and the National Early Warning Score in general ward patients who activated the medical emergency team.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The current early warning scores may be insufficient for medical emergency teams (METs) to use in assessing the severity and the prognosis of activated patients. We evaluated the predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 28-day mortality and to analyze predictors of 28-day mortality in general ward patients who activate the MET. METHODS:Adult general ward inpatients who activated the MET in a tertiary referral teaching hospital between March 2009 and December 2016 were included. The demographic and clinical characteristics and physiologic parameters at the time of MET activation were collected, and MEWS and NEWS were calculated. RESULTS:A total of 6,729 MET activation events were analyzed. Patients who died within 28 days were younger (mean age 60 vs 62 years), were more likely to have malignancy (72% vs 53%), were more likely to be admitted to the medical department rather than the surgical department (93% vs 80%), had longer intervals from admission to MET activation (median, 7 vs 5 days), and were less likely to activate the MET during nighttime hours (5 PM to 8 AM) (61% vs 66%) compared with those who did not die within 28 days (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of MEWS and NEWS for 28-day mortality were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.56-0.59) and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.59-0.62), which were inferior to that of the logistics regression model (0.73; 95% CI, 0.72-0.74; P < 0.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS:Both the MEWS and NEWS had poor predictive powers for 28-day mortality in patients who activated the MET. A new scoring system is needed to stratify the severity and prognosis of patients who activated the MET.

SUBMITTER: Ahn JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7224474 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score and the National Early Warning Score in general ward patients who activated the medical emergency team.

Ahn Jee Hwan JH Jung Youn Kyung YK Lee Ju-Ry JR Oh You Na YN Oh Dong Kyu DK Huh Jin Won JW Lim Chae-Man CM Koh Younsuck Y Hong Sang-Bum SB

PloS one 20200514 5

<h4>Background</h4>The current early warning scores may be insufficient for medical emergency teams (METs) to use in assessing the severity and the prognosis of activated patients. We evaluated the predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 28-day mortality and to analyze predictors of 28-day mortality in general ward patients who activate the MET.<h4>Methods</h4>Adult general ward inpatients who activated the MET in a tertiary re ...[more]

PMID: 32407344

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Project description:BackgroundTimely recognition of warning signs from deteriorating patients and proper treatment are important in improving patient safety. In comparison to the traditional medical emergency team (MET) activation triggered by phone calls, automated activation of MET may minimize activation delays. However, limited data are available on the effects of automated activation systems on the time from derangement to MET activation and on clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of an automated alert and activation system for MET on clinical outcomes in unselected hospitalized patients.MethodsThis is an observational study using prospectively collected data from consecutive patients managed by the MET at a university-affiliated, tertiary hospital from March 2013 to December 2019. The automated alert system automatically calculates the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and subsequently activates MET when the MEWS score is 7 or higher, which was implemented since August 2016. The outcome measures of interest including hospital mortality in patients with MEWS of 7 or higher were compared between pre-implementation and post-implementation groups of the automated alert and activation system in the primary analysis. The association between the implementation of the system and hospital mortality was evaluated with logistic regression analysis.ResultsOf the 7678 patients who were managed by MET during the study period, 639 patients during the pre-implementation period and 957 patients during the post-implementation period were included in the primary analysis. MET calls due to abnormal physiological variables were more common during the pre-implementation period, while MET calls due to medical staff's worries or concern about the patient's condition were more common during the post-implementation period. The median time from deterioration to MET activation was significantly shortened in the post-implementation period compared to the pre-implementation period (34 min vs. 60 min, P < 0.001). In addition, unplanned ICU admission rates (41.2% vs. 71.8%, P < 0.001) was reduced during the post-implementation period. Hospital mortality was decreased after implementation of the automated alert system (27.2% vs. 38.5%, P < 0.001). The implementation of the automated alert and activation system was associated with decreased risk of death in the multivariable analysis (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.90).ConclusionsAfter implementing an automated alert and activation system, the time from deterioration to MET activation was shortened and clinical outcomes were improved in hospitalized patients.

Project description:We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics.DesignWe analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours.SettingA multisite international inpatient trial.PatientsA total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia.InterventionsAdaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment.Measurements and main resultsFor mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05).ConclusionsIn the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.

Project description:IntroductionProviding optimal critical care in developing countries is limited by lack of recognition of critical illness and lack of essential resources. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), based on physiological parameters, is validated in adult medical and surgical patients as a predictor of mortality. The objective of this study performed in Uganda was to determine the prevalence of critical illness on the wards as defined by the MEWS, to evaluate the MEWS as a predictor of death, and to describe additional risk factors for mortality.MethodsWe conducted a prospective observational study at Mulago National Referral Teaching Hospital in Uganda. We included medical and surgical ward patients over 18 years old, excluding patients discharged the day of enrolment, obstetrical patients, and patients who self-discharged prior to study completion. Over a 72-hour study period, we collected demographic and vital signs, and calculated MEWS; at 7-days we measured outcomes. Patients discharged prior to 7 days were assumed to be alive at study completion. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were performed.ResultsOf 452 patients, the median age was 40.5 (IQR 29-54) years, 53.3% were male, 24.3% were HIV positive, and 45.1% had medical diagnoses. MEWS ranged from 0 to 9, with higher scores representing hemodynamic instability. The median MEWS was 2 [IQR 1-3] and the median length of hospital stay was 9 days [IQR 4-24]. In-hospital mortality at 7-days was 5.5%; 41.4% of patients were discharged and 53.1% remained on the ward. Mortality was independently associated with medical admission (OR: 7.17; 95% CI: 2.064-24.930; p = 0.002) and the MEWS ? 5 (OR: 5.82; 95% CI: 2.420-13.987; p<0.0001) in the multivariable analysis.ConclusionThere is a significant burden of critical illness at Mulago Hospital, Uganda. Implementation of the MEWS could provide a useful triage tool to identify patients at greatest risk of death. Future research should include refinement of MEWS for low-resource settings, and development of appropriate interventions for patients identified to be at high risk of death based on early warning scores.

Project description:The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (pNEWS) and the pre-hospital Modified Early Warning Score (pMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). We also compare the value of the pNEWS with that of the ED NEWS (eNEWS) and ED MEWS (eMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality. This retrospective, single-centre observational study was carried out in the ED of Jikei University Kashiwa Hospital, in Chiba, Japan, from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018. All patients aged 65 years or older were included in this study. The pNEWS/eNEWS were derived from seven common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, the presence of inhaled oxygen parameters, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive (AVPU) score, whereas the pMEWS/eMEWS were derived from six common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and AVPU score. Discrimination was assessed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS were significantly higher at admission than at discharge (p < 0.001). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS of non-survivors were significantly higher than those of the survivors (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.559 for the pNEWS and 0.547 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting admission (p = 0.102). The AUCs for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.678 for the pNEWS and 0.652 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = 0.081). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.628 for the eNEWS and 0.591 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting admission (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.789 for the eNEWS and 0.720 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). For admission and in-hospital mortality, the AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the pNEWS (p < 0.001, p < 0.001), and the AUC of the eMEWS was significantly greater than that of the pMEWS (p < 0.01, p < 0.05). Our single-centre study has demonstrated the low utility of the pNEWS and the pMEWS as predictors of admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients, whereas the eNEWS and the eMEWS predicted admission and in-hospital mortality more accurately. Evidence from multicentre studies is needed before introducing pre-hospital versions of risk-scoring systems.

Dataset Information

Predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score and the National Early Warning Score in general ward patients who activated the medical emergency team.

Publications

Predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score and the National Early Warning Score in general ward patients who activated the medical emergency team.

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