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Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Background:The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors associated with lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), and to develop two web-based nomograms that predict the probability of level-II and level-III/IV LLNM in these patients. Methods:The records of 653 patients with PTC were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with LLNM in 460 patients ("derivation group"). Two models [including and excluding the subregions of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM)] were used to predict the probability of level-II LLNM; the same two models were also used for level-III/IV LLNM. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) in 193 patients ("validation group"). Two web-based nomograms were established. Results:Increased tumor size, a tumor in the upper lobe, and prelaryngeal and ipsilateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis (LNM) were significantly associated with level-II LNM (P<0.05). Increased tumor size, a tumor in the upper lobe, and certain subregions of CLNM were associated with level-III/IV LNM (P<0.05). Use of ROC analysis of each model indicated that including subgroups of CLNM led to better model performance than excluding these subgroups. We quantified the benefit of each model by using DCA analysis in the validation group. Conclusions:Our web-based nomograms provide quantification of risk for LLNM in patients with PTC before and during surgery.

SUBMITTER: Dou Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7225478 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Dou Yi Y Chen Yingji Y Hu Daixing D Xiong Wei W Xiao Qi Q Su Xinliang X

Gland surgery 20200401 2

<h4>Background</h4>The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors associated with lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), and to develop two web-based nomograms that predict the probability of level-II and level-III/IV LLNM in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>The records of 653 patients with PTC were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with LLNM in 460 patients ("de ...[more]

PMID: 32420240

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Project description:BackgroundPapillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is characterized by its favorable prognosis and potential for active surveillance (AS) as a management option. However, the presence of cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis, especially lateral LN metastasis, significantly impacts management and prognosis. Previous studies have focused on post-surgery risk factors for cervical LN metastasis. This study aims to identify predictors of lateral LN metastasis by analyzing pre-operative ultrasonographic findings alongside clinicopathological factors.MethodsA retrospective review of medical records was conducted for patients with PTMC who underwent surgery at Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital between 2004 and 2013. This is a case-control study that compares patients with lateral LN metastasis (N1b) to age- and sex-matched patients without LN metastasis (N0). Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate risk factors of skip metastasis.ResultsThe study included 90 patients with PTMC with lateral LN metastasis (N1b) and 268 age- and sex-matched patients without LN metastasis (N0). The mean age was 49.3 years, and female patients were dominant in both groups. Structural recurrences of 4.4% (4/90) were observed only in the N1b group. The N1b group exhibited a higher frequency of upper lobe tumor location compared to the N0 group (38.9% vs. 16.0%, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the locations with the presence of invasion to adjacent organs. A higher proportion of non-parallel shape was observed in the N1b group than the N0 group (80.0% vs. 66.0%, p = 0.013). There were no differences in echogenicity, sonographic feature, margin, and AP diameter of the thyroid gland between the two groups. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for lateral LN metastasis included extrathyroidal extension, multiplicity, upper lobe tumor location, and non-parallel shape. Skip metastasis in patients with PTMC was associated with upper lobe tumor location.ConclusionDetailed ultrasound examinations, evaluating tumor location, number, orientation, and the presence of ETE, are crucial in accurately predicting lateral LN metastasis especially when primary tumor was in the upper lobe to avoid missing skip metastasis. These evaluations can help guide the decision between AS and immediate surgery in patients with PTMC.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Publications

Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

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