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Assessing direct and indirect effects of pediatric influenza vaccination in Germany by individual-based simulations.

ABSTRACT: Children have a high burden of influenza and play a central role in spreading influenza. Routinely vaccinating children against influenza may, thus, not only reduce their disease burden, but also that of the general population, including the elderly who frequently suffer severe complications. Using the published individual-based tool 4Flu, we simulated how pediatric vaccination would change infection incidence in Germany. Transmission of four influenza strains was simulated in 100,000 individuals with German demography and contact structure. After initialization with the recorded trivalent influenza vaccination coverage for 20 years (1997-2016), all vaccinations were switched to quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV). Scenarios where vaccination coverage of children (0.5-17-year-old) was increased from the current value (4.3%) to a maximum of 10-60% were compared to baseline with unchanged coverage, averaging results of 1,000 pairs of simulations over a 20-year evaluation period (2017-2036). Pediatric vaccination coverage of 10-60% annually prevented 218-1,732 (6.3-50.5%) infections in children, 204-1,961 (2.9-28.2%) in young adults and 95-868 (3.1-28.9%) in the elderly in a population of 100,000 inhabitants; overall, 34.1% of infections in the total population (3.7 million infections per year in Germany) can be prevented if 60% of all children are vaccinated annually. 4.4-4.6 vaccinations were needed to prevent one infection among children; 1.7-1.8 were needed to prevent one in the population. Enhanced pediatric vaccination prevents many infections in children and even more in young adults and the elderly.

SUBMITTER: Schmidt-Ott R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7227695 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSome studies have found a higher frequency of fever with trivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) than with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), but quadrivalent LAIV has not been assessed. Understanding fever is important for safety reviews and for parents and providers. In addition, there have been only a limited number of studies in which text messaging was used for vaccine adverse-event (AE) surveillance.MethodsWe conducted a prospective observational study in 3 community clinics in New York City to assess post-influenza vaccination fever in 24- to 59-month-olds during the 2013-2014 season. Enrolled families of children who received quadrivalent LAIV (LAIV4) or IIV (trivalent IIV3 or quadrivalent IIV4) replied to text messages that assessed their temperature on vaccination night and the next 10 nights (days 0 to 10); missing data were collected via telephone and a diary. We compared frequencies of fever (temperature ≥ 100.4°F) according to vaccine group on days 0 to 2 and 3 to 10 by using χ2 and multivariate log-binomial regression adjusted for age, previous influenza vaccination, and vaccine coadministration. We also assessed outcomes using all sources versus only text messages.ResultsMost (84.1% [n = 540]) eligible parents enrolled. Fever frequencies on days 0 to 2 did not differ between LAIV4 and any IIV (3.8% vs 5.7%, respectively; adjusted relative risk [aRR] [95% confidence interval], 0.60 [0.25-1.46]), between LAIV4 and IIV4 (4.2% vs 7.1%, respectively; aRR, 0.58 [0.19-1.72]), or between IIV4 and IIV3 (7.1% vs 6.0%, respectively; aRR, 1.02 [0.30-3.46]). The findings were similar when all data sources versus text-message data alone were used. There were no significant differences on days 3 to 10.ConclusionsPostvaccination fever frequencies were low overall and did not differ according to influenza vaccine type during the 2013-2014 influenza season. The similarity of results when data were limited to text messages lends support to its use for surveillance of vaccine adverse events.

Project description:Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research.

Project description:BackgroundInfluenza poses a significant burden on healthcare systems and society, with under-recognition in the paediatric population. Existing vaccination policies (largely) target the elderly and other risk groups where complications may arise.ObjectiveThe goal of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of annual paediatric vaccination (in 2-17-year-olds) with live attenuated influenza vaccination (LAIV), as well as the protective effect on the wider population in England and Wales (base). The study aimed to demonstrate broad applications of the model in countries where epidemiological and transmission data is limited and that have sophisticated vaccination policies (Brazil, Spain, and Taiwan).MethodsThe direct and indirect impact of LAIV in the paediatric cohort was simulated using an age-stratified dynamic transmission model over a 5-year time horizon of daily cycles and applying discounting of 3.5% in the base case. Pre-existing immunity structure was based on a 1-year model run. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsIn the base case for England and Wales, the annual paediatric strategy with LAIV was associated with improvements in influenza-related events and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, yielding an incremental cost per QALY of £6,208. The model was robust to change in the key input parameters. The probabilistic analysis demonstrated LAIV to be cost effective in more than 99% of iterations, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000. Incremental costs per QALY for Brazil were £2,817, and for the cases of Spain and Taiwan the proposed strategy was dominant over the current practice.ConclusionIn addition to existing policies, annual paediatric vaccination using LAIV provides a cost-effective strategy that offers direct and indirect protection in the wider community. Paediatric vaccination strategies using LAIV demonstrated clinical and economic benefits over alternative (current vaccination) strategies in England and Wales as well as Brazil, Spain, and Taiwan.

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Assessing direct and indirect effects of pediatric influenza vaccination in Germany by individual-based simulations.

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