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Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Bayesian networks (BNs) are machine-learning-based computational models that visualize causal relationships and provide insight into the processes underlying disease progression, closely resembling clinical decision-making. Preoperative identification of patients at risk for lymph node metastasis (LNM) is challenging in endometrial cancer, and although several biomarkers are related to LNM, none of them are incorporated in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a preoperative BN to predict LNM and outcome in endometrial cancer patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Within the European Network for Individualized Treatment of Endometrial Cancer (ENITEC), we performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 763 patients, median age 65 years (interquartile range [IQR] 58-71), surgically treated for endometrial cancer between February 1995 and August 2013 at one of the 10 participating European hospitals. A BN was developed using score-based machine learning in addition to expert knowledge. Our main outcome measures were LNM and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS). Preoperative clinical, histopathological, and molecular biomarkers were included in the network. External validation was performed using 2 prospective study cohorts: the Molecular Markers in Treatment in Endometrial Cancer (MoMaTEC) study cohort, including 446 Norwegian patients, median age 64 years (IQR 59-74), treated between May 2001 and 2010; and the PIpelle Prospective ENDOmetrial carcinoma (PIPENDO) study cohort, including 384 Dutch patients, median age 66 years (IQR 60-73), treated between September 2011 and December 2013. A BN called ENDORISK (preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer) was developed including the following predictors: preoperative tumor grade; immunohistochemical expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), p53, and L1 cell adhesion molecule (L1CAM); cancer antigen 125 serum level; thrombocyte count; imaging results on lymphadenopathy; and cervical cytology. In the MoMaTEC cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.88) for LNM and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.87) for 5-year DSS. In the PIPENDO cohort, the AUC for 5-year DSS was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90). The network was well-calibrated. In the MoMaTEC cohort, 249 patients (55.8%) were classified with <5% risk of LNM, with a false-negative rate of 1.6%. A limitation of the study is the use of imputation to correct for missing predictor variables in the development cohort and the retrospective study design. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we illustrated how BNs can be used for individualizing clinical decision-making in oncology by incorporating easily accessible and multimodal biomarkers. The network shows the complex interactions underlying the carcinogenetic process of endometrial cancer by its graphical representation. A prospective feasibility study will be needed prior to implementation in the clinic.

SUBMITTER: Reijnen C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7228042 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study.

Reijnen Casper C Gogou Evangelia E Visser Nicole C M NCM Engerud Hilde H Ramjith Jordache J van der Putten Louis J M LJM van de Vijver Koen K Santacana Maria M Bronsert Peter P Bulten Johan J Hirschfeld Marc M Colas Eva E Gil-Moreno Antonio A Reques Armando A Mancebo Gemma G Krakstad Camilla C Trovik Jone J Haldorsen Ingfrid S IS Huvila Jutta J Koskas Martin M Weinberger Vit V Bednarikova Marketa M Hausnerova Jitka J van der Wurff Anneke A M AAM Matias-Guiu Xavier X Amant Frederic F Massuger Leon F A G LFAG Snijders Marc P L M MPLM Küsters-Vandevelde Heidi V N HVN Lucas Peter J F PJF Pijnenborg Johanna M A JMA

PLoS medicine 20200515 5

<h4>Background</h4>Bayesian networks (BNs) are machine-learning-based computational models that visualize causal relationships and provide insight into the processes underlying disease progression, closely resembling clinical decision-making. Preoperative identification of patients at risk for lymph node metastasis (LNM) is challenging in endometrial cancer, and although several biomarkers are related to LNM, none of them are incorporated in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develo ...[more]

PMID: 32413043

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Project description:IntroductionAmong industrialized countries, endometrial cancer is a common malignancy with generally an excellent outcome. To personalize medicine, we ideally compile as much information as possible concerning patient prognosis prior to effecting an appropriate treatment decision. Endometrial cancer preoperative risk stratification (ENDORISK) is a machine learning-based computational Bayesian networks model that predicts lymph node metastasis and 5-year disease-specific survival potential with percentual probability. Our objective included validating ENDORISK effectiveness in our patient cohort, assessing its application in the current use of sentinel node biopsy, and verifying its accuracy in advanced stages.MethodsThe ENDORISK model was evaluated with a retrospective cohort of 425 patients from the University Hospital Brno, Czech Republic. Two hundred ninety-nine patients were involved in our disease-specific survival analysis; 226 cases with known lymph node status were available for lymph node metastasis analysis. Patients were included undergoing either pelvic lymph node dissection (N = 84) or sentinel node biopsy (N =70) to explore the accuracy of both staging procedures.ResultsThe area under the curve was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77-0.9) for lymph node metastasis analysis and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93) for 5-year disease-specific survival evaluation, indicating quite positive concordance between prediction and reality. Calibration plots to visualize results demonstrated an outstanding predictive value for low-risk cancers (grades 1-2), whereas outcomes were underestimated among high-risk patients (grade 3), especially in disease-specific survival. This phenomenon was even more obvious when patients were subclassified according to FIGO clinical stages.ConclusionsOur data confirmed ENDORISK model's laudable predictive ability, particularly among patients with a low risk of lymph node metastasis and expected favorable survival. For high-risk and/or advanced stages, the ENDORISK network needs to be additionally trained/improved.

Project description:BackgroundAdjuvant therapy for patients with cervical cancer (CC) with intermediate-risk factors remains controversial. The objectives of the present study are to assess the prognoses of patients with early-stage CC with pathological intermediate-risk factors and to provide a reference for adjuvant therapy choice.Materials and methodsThis retrospective study included 481 patients with stage IB-IIA CC. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, machine learning (ML) algorithms, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to develop and validate prediction models for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).ResultsA total of 35 (7.3%) patients experienced recurrence, and 20 (4.2%) patients died. Two prediction models were built for DFS and OS using clinical information, including age, lymphovascular space invasion, stromal invasion, tumor size, and adjuvant treatment. Patients were divided into high-risk or low-risk groups according to the risk score cutoff value. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant differences in DFS (p = .001) and OS (p = .011) between the two risk groups. In the traditional Sedlis criteria groups, there were no significant differences in DFS or OS (p > .05). In the ML-based validation, the best AUCs of DFS at 2 and 5 years were 0.69/0.69, and the best AUCs of OS at 2 and 5 years were 0.88/0.63.ConclusionTwo prognostic assessment models were successfully established, and risk grouping stratified the prognostic risk of patients with CC with pathological intermediate-risk factors. Evaluation of long-term survival will be needed to corroborate these findings.Implications for practiceThe Sedlis criteria are intermediate-risk factors used to guide postoperative adjuvant treatment in patients with cervical cancer. However, for patients meeting the Sedlis criteria, the choice of adjuvant therapy remains controversial. This study developed two prognostic models based on pathological intermediate-risk factors. According to the risk score obtained by the prediction model, patients can be further divided into groups with high or low risk of recurrence and death. The prognostic models developed in this study can be used in clinical practice to stratify prognostic risk and provide more individualized adjuvant therapy choices to patients with early-stage cervical cancer.

Dataset Information

Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study.

Publications

Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study.

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