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Bayesian network modelling study to identify factors influencing the risk of cardiovascular disease in Canadian adults with hepatitis C virus infection.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The present study evaluates the extent of association between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and identifies factors mediating this relationship using Bayesian network (BN) analysis. DESIGN AND SETTING:A population-based cross-sectional survey in Canada. PARTICIPANTS:Adults from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (n=10 115) aged 30 to 74 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:The 10-year risk of CVD was determined using the Framingham Risk Score in HCV-positive and HCV-negative subjects. Using BN analysis, variables were modelled to calculate the probability of CVD risk in HCV infection. RESULTS:When the BN is compiled, and no variable has been instantiated, 73%, 17% and 11% of the subjects had low, moderate and high 10-year CVD risk, respectively. The conditional probability of high CVD risk increased to 13.9%±1.6% (p<2.2×10-16) when the HCV variable is instantiated to 'Present' state and decreased to 8.6%±0.2% when HCV was instantiated to 'Absent' (p<2.2×10-16). HCV cases had 1.6-fold higher prevalence of high-CVD risk compared with non-infected individuals (p=0.038). Analysis of the effect modification of the HCV-CVD relationship (using median Kullback-Leibler divergence; DKL ) showed diabetes as a major effect modifier on the joint probability distribution of HCV infection and CVD risk (DKL =0.27, IQR: 0.26 to 0.27), followed by hypertension (0.24, IQR: 0.23 to 0.25), age (0.21, IQR: 0.10 to 0.38) and injection drug use (0.19, IQR: 0.06 to 0.59). CONCLUSIONS:Exploring the relationship between HCV infection and CVD risk using BN modelling analysis revealed that the infection is associated with elevated CVD risk. A number of risk modifiers were identified to play a role in this relationship. Targeting these factors during the course of infection to reduce CVD risk should be studied further.

SUBMITTER: Badawi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7228556 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian network modelling study to identify factors influencing the risk of cardiovascular disease in Canadian adults with hepatitis C virus infection.

Badawi Alaa A Di Giuseppe Giancarlo G Gupta Alind A Poirier Abbey A Arora Paul P

BMJ open 20200505 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>The present study evaluates the extent of association between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and identifies factors mediating this relationship using Bayesian network (BN) analysis.<h4>Design and setting</h4>A population-based cross-sectional survey in Canada.<h4>Participants</h4>Adults from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (<i>n</i>=10 115) aged 30 to 74 years.<h4>Primary and secondary outcome measures</h4>The 10-year risk of CVD wa ...[more]

PMID: 32371519

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Project description:BackgroundWhen tackling complex public health challenges such as childhood obesity, interventions focused on immediate causes, such as poor diet and physical inactivity, have had limited success, largely because upstream root causes remain unresolved. A priority is to develop new modelling frameworks to infer the causal structure of complex chronic disease networks, allowing disease "on-ramps" to be identified and targeted.MethodsThe system surrounding childhood obesity was modelled as a Bayesian network, using data from The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. The existence and directions of the dependencies between factors represent possible causal pathways for childhood obesity and were encoded in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). The posterior distribution of the DAGs was estimated using the Partition Markov chain Monte Carlo.ResultsWe have implemented structure learning for each dataset at a single time point. For each wave and cohort, socio-economic status was central to the DAGs, implying that socio-economic status drives the system regarding childhood obesity. Furthermore, the causal pathway socio-economic status and/or parental high school levels → parental body mass index (BMI) → child's BMI existed in over 99.99% of posterior DAG samples across all waves and cohorts. For children under the age of 8 years, the most influential proximate causal factors explaining child BMI were birth weight and parents' BMI. After age 8 years, free time activity became an important driver of obesity, while the upstream factors influencing free time activity for boys compared with girls were different.ConclusionsChildhood obesity is largely a function of socio-economic status, which is manifest through numerous downstream factors. Parental high school levels entangle with socio-economic status, and hence, are on-ramp to childhood obesity. The strong and independent causal relationship between birth weight and childhood BMI suggests a biological link. Our study implies that interventions that improve the socio-economic status, including through increasing high school completion rates, may be effective in reducing childhood obesity prevalence.

Project description:The Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in China (2022) intricate landscape of cardiovascular health in China. This is the first section of the report, which dissects influential factors across diverse domains. The investigation identifies tobacco use as a paramount concern, portraying China as the global epicenter of tobacco consumption. Cigarette smoking, exacerbated by second-hand smoke exposure, emerges as a critical and preventable risk factor, contributing to a surge in attributable deaths over the past three decades. In the realm of dietary nutrition, the study discerns an overall improvement, yet discerns worrisome deviations, notably an escalating fat intake surpassing recommended guidelines. The shifting dietary structure reveals diminished consumption of cereals and vegetables juxtaposed with an uptick in animal foods, while excessive intake of cooking oil and salt persists, straying substantially from endorsed levels. The exploration of physical activity patterns unfolds a nuanced narrative. Varied trends are observed among students, with concerns arising from sedentary behaviors and inadequate adherence to recommended guidelines. The analysis spans a trajectory of declining physical activity in Chinese adults, coupled with an alarming surge in sedentary leisure time, ultimately linking these factors to heightened risks of cardiovascular diseases and increased adiposity. An examination of overweight and obesity trends uncovers a relentless upward trajectory, projecting substantial prevalence by 2030. Noteworthy prevalence rates underscore the imperative for targeted interventions to curtail this burgeoning health crisis, with the anticipated prevalence extending to nearly two-thirds of the adult population. Psychological factors, notably depression, constitute an integral facet of cardiovascular health. Prevalence rates among patients with coronary artery disease and acute myocardial infarction underscore the intricate interplay between mental health and cardiovascular outcomes. Additionally, persistent depressive symptoms are shown to significantly elevate the risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality. This first section underscores the multifaceted challenges facing cardiovascular health in China, emphasizing the imperative for tailored interventions across tobacco control, dietary habits, physical activity, obesity management, and psychological well-being to mitigate the escalating burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population.

Project description:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality worldwide. These diseases originate in childhood, and a better understanding of their early determinants and risk factors would allow better prevention. The BELINDA (BEtter LIfe by Nutrition During Adulthood) study is a 10−14-year follow-up of the HEalthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence study (the HELENA study, a European cross-sectional study in adolescents). The study aims to evaluate cardiovascular risk using the PDAY (Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth) risk score during young adulthood (21−32 years), and to examine the impact of risk factors identified during adolescence (12.5−17.5 years). Our secondary objective is to compare the characteristics of the BELINDA study population with the HELENA population not participating in the follow-up study. The HELENA study recruited 3528 adolescents during 2006−2007 and reassessed 232 of them 10−14 years later as young adults. We assessed clinical status, anthropometry, nutrition, physical activity (including sedentary behavior), physical fitness, and mental health parameters, and collected biological samples (blood, stool, and hair). Dietary intake, and physical activity and fitness data were also collected. A multivariable linear regression model will be used for the analysis of the primary outcome. A Chi-square and T-test were conducted for the comparison of the descriptive data (gender, age, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), and maternal school level) between participating and non-participating BELINDA adolescents. When comparing the 1327 eligible subjects with the 232 included in the BELINDA study, no significant differences regarding gender (p = 0.72), age (p = 0.60), height (p = 0.11), and weight (p = 0.083) at adolescence were found. However, the participating population had a lower BMI (20.4 ± 3.1 kg/m2 versus 21.2 ± 3.6 kg/m2; p < 0.001) and a higher maternal educational level (46.8% high school or university level versus 38.6%; p = 0.027) than the HELENA population who did not participate in the BELINDA study. The complete phenotyping obtained at adolescence through the HELENA study is a unique opportunity to identify adolescent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. This paper will serve as a methodological basis for future analysis of this study.

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Bayesian network modelling study to identify factors influencing the risk of cardiovascular disease in Canadian adults with hepatitis C virus infection.

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Bayesian network modelling study to identify factors influencing the risk of cardiovascular disease in Canadian adults with hepatitis C virus infection.

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