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Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus epidemic can push millions of people in poverty. The shortage of healthcare resources, lack of sanitation, and population compactness leads to an increase in communicable diseases, which may increase millions of people add in a vicious cycle of poverty. The study used the number of factors that affect poverty incidence in a panel of 76 countries for a period of 2010-2019. The dynamic panel GMM estimates show that the causes of death by communicable diseases, chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel combustion, and lack of access to basic hand washing facilities menace to increase poverty headcounts, whereas, an increase in healthcare expenditures substantially decreases poverty headcounts across countries. Further, the results show the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and poverty headcounts, as economic growth first decreases and later increase poverty headcount due to rising healthcare disparities among nations. The causality estimates show that lack of access to basic amenities lead to increase of communicable diseases including COVID-19 whereas chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel emissions continue to increase healthcare expenditures and economic growth in a panel of selected countries. The rising healthcare disparities, regional conflicts, and public debt burden further 'hold in the hand' of communicable diseases that push millions of people in the poverty trap.

SUBMITTER: Anser MK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7228701 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon.

Anser Muhammad Khalid MK Yousaf Zahid Z Khan Muhammad Azhar MA Nassani Abdelmohsen A AA Alotaibi Saad M SM Qazi Abro Muhammad Moinuddin MM Vo Xuan Vinh XV Zaman Khalid K

Environmental research 20200515

Coronavirus epidemic can push millions of people in poverty. The shortage of healthcare resources, lack of sanitation, and population compactness leads to an increase in communicable diseases, which may increase millions of people add in a vicious cycle of poverty. The study used the number of factors that affect poverty incidence in a panel of 76 countries for a period of 2010-2019. The dynamic panel GMM estimates show that the causes of death by communicable diseases, chemical-induced carbon a ...[more]

PMID: 32422482

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Project description:BackgroundSince early 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has engulfed the world. Amidst the growing number of infections and deaths, there has been an emphasis of patients with non-communicable diseases as they are particularly susceptible to the virus. The objective of this literature review is to systematize the available evidence on the link between non-communicable diseases and Covid-19.MethodsWe have conducted a systematic review of the literature on Covid-19 and non-communicable diseases from December, 2019 until 15th of November, 2020. The search was done in PubMed and in doing so we used a variety of searching terms in order to isolate the final set of papers. At the end of the selection process, 45 papers were selected for inclusion in the literature review.ResultsThe results from the review indicate that patients with certain chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension (and other cardiovascular diseases), chronic respiratory illnesses, chronic kidney and liver conditions are more likely to be affected by Covid-19. More importantly, once they do get infected by the virus, patients with chronic illnesses have a much higher likelihood of having worse clinical outcomes (developing a more severe form of the disease or dying) than an average patient. There are two hypothesized channels that explain this strong link between the chronic illnesses enumerated above and Covid 19: (i) increased ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor expressions, which facilitates the entry of the virus into the host body; and (ii) hyperinflammatory response, referred to as "cytokine storm". Finally, the literature review does not find any evidence that diabetes or hypertension related medications exacerbate the overall Covid-19 condition in chronic illness patients.ConclusionsThus, the evidence points out to 'business as usual' disease management model, although with greater supervision. However, given the ongoing Covid-19 vulnerabilities among people with NCDs, prioritizing them for the vaccination process should also figure high on the agenda on health authorities.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the main health and development challenge facing humankind all over the world. They are inextricably linked to socio-economic development. Deaths caused by NCDs should be different in different socio-economic development stages. The stratified heterogeneity of NCD deaths is currently not fully explored. METHODS:Countries were classified according to their socio-economic types and development stages, which were illustrated as a tree-like structure called Geotree. NCD deaths were linked to the countries and so were attached to the Geotree, which was modelled by a multilevel model (MLM) approach. Accordingly, the levels of NCD death indexes were predicted for 2030. RESULTS:Through the Geotree structure constructed in the study, it can be seen that the NCD death index has obvious stratified heterogeneity; that is, the NCD death index shows different trends in different country types and socio-economic development stages. In the first-level branches (country type), as national income increases, NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In the secondary-level trunks (socio-economic development stage), as a country's development stage rises, the NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In addition, combined with the hierarchical nature of the evolution tree model, the MLM was used to predict the global NCD death index for 2030. The result was that by 2030, the global average age-standardized NCD mortality rate would be 510.54 (per 100,000 population) and the global average mortality for NCD deaths of the total number of deaths would be 75.26%. CONCLUSIONS:This study found that there is a significant association between socio-economic factors and NCD death indicators in the tree-like structure. In the Geotree, countries on the same branch or trunk can learn from countries with higher development stages to formulate more effective NCD response policies and find the right prevention and treatment path.

Project description:BackgroundThe choices that policymakers make are shaped by how their problems are framed. At last, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen high on the global policy agenda, but there are many disputed issues. First, what are they? Their name refers not to what they are but what they are not. Second, where do their boundaries lie? What diseases are included? Third, should we view their causes as mainly biomedical, behavioural, or social, or a combination? Our failure to resolve these issues has been invoked as a reason for our limited progress in developing and implementing effective remedies. In this scoping review, we ask "What is known from the existing literature about how NCDs are framed in the global policy discourses?" We answer it by reviewing the frames employed in policy and academic discourses.MethodsWe searched nine electronic databases for articles published since inception to 31 May 2019. We also reviewed websites of eight international organisations to identify global NCDs policies. We extracted data and synthesised findings to identify key thematic frames.ResultsWe included 36 articles and nine policy documents on global NCDs policies. We identified five discursive domains that have been used and where there are differing perspectives. These are: "Expanding the NCDs frame to include mental health and air pollution"; "NCDs and their determinants"; "A rights-based approach to NCDs"; "Approaches to achieving policy coherence in NCDs globally"; and "NCDs as part of Sustainable Socio-economic Development". We further identified 12 frames within the five discursive domains.ConclusionsThis scoping review identifies issues that remain unresolved and points to a need for alignment of perspectives among global health policy actors, as well as synergies with those working on mental health, maternal health, and child health. The current COVID-19 pandemic warrants greater consideration of its impact on global NCDs policies. Future global strategies for NCDs need to consider explicitly how NCDs are framed in a changing global health discourse and ensure adequate alignment with implementation and global health issues. There is a need for global strategies to recognise the pertinent role of actors in shaping policy discourses.

Dataset Information

Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon.

Publications

Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon.

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