Project description:BackgroundGastro-oesophageal reflux disease is a common chronic ailment that causes uncomfortable symptoms and increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We aimed to report the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017.MethodsWe did a systematic review to identify measurements of the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in geographically defined populations worldwide between 1990 and 2017. These estimates were analysed with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool that incorporates predictive covariates and adjustments for differences in study design in a geographical cascade of models. Fitted values for broader geographical units inform prior distributions for finer geographical units. Prevalence was estimated for 195 countries and territories. Reports of the frequency and severity of symptoms among individuals with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease were used to estimate the prevalence of cases with no, mild to moderate, or severe to very severe symptoms at a given time; these estimates were multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLD).FindingsData to estimate gastro-oesophageal reflux disease burden were scant, totalling 144 location-years (unique measurements from a year and location, regardless of whether a study reported them alongside measurements for other locations or years) of prevalence data. These came from six (86%) of seven GBD super-regions, 11 (52%) of 21 GBD regions, and 39 (20%) of 195 countries and territories. Mean estimates of age-standardised prevalence for all locations in 2017 ranged from 4408 cases per 100 000 population to 14 035 cases per 100 000 population. Age-standardised prevalence was highest (>11 000 cases per 100 000 population) in the USA, Italy, Greece, New Zealand, and several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe; it was lowest (<7000 cases per 100 000 population) in the high-income Asia Pacific, east Asia, Iceland, France, Denmark, and Switzerland. Global prevalence peaked at ages 75-79 years, at 18 820 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 13 770-24 000) cases per 100 000 population. Global age-standardised prevalence was stable between 1990 and 2017 (8791 [95% UI 7772-9834] cases per 100 000 population in 1990 and 8819 [7781-9863] cases per 100 000 population in 2017, percentage change 0·3% [-0·3 to 0·9]), but all-age prevalence increased by 18·1% (15·6-20·4) between 1990 and 2017, from 7859 (6905-8851) cases per 100 000 population in 1990 to 9283 (8189-10 400) cases per 100 000 population in 2017. YLDs increased by 67·1% (95% UI 63·5-70·3) between 1990 and 2017, from 3·60 million (1·93-6·12) in 1990 to 6·01 million (3·22-10·19) in 2017.InterpretationGastro-oesophageal reflux disease is common worldwide, although less so in much of eastern Asia. The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. METHODS:Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates. FINDINGS:In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000-456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000-221 000; 51·9%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5·0 (4·9-5·1) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5·7 (5·6-5·8) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2·3 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000-200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000-449 000) in 2017. There was a 2·1 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4·4 million (4·3-4·5) in 1990 to 9·1 million (8·9-9·3) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17·4 [15·8-19·0] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12·1 [10·9-13·5] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1·9 [1·5-2·3] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and São Tomé and Príncipe (1·3 [1·1-1·5] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65-69 years for males and at 75-79 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21·1% [18·8-23·7]), high fasting plasma glucose (8·9% [2·1-19·4]), and high body-mass index (6·2% [2·5-11·4]) in 2017. INTERPRETATION:Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundData about the global, regional, and country-specific variations in the levels and trends of colorectal cancer are required to understand the impact of this disease and the trends in its burden to help policy makers allocate resources. Here we provide a status report on the incidence, mortality, and disability caused by colorectal cancer in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017.MethodsVital registration, sample vital registration, verbal autopsy, and cancer registry data were used to generate incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates of colorectal cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. We also determined the association between development levels and colorectal cancer age-standardised DALY rates, and calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. All of the estimates are reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years, with some estimates also presented by sex and 5-year age groups.FindingsIn 2017, there were 1·8 million (95% UI 1·8-1·9) incident cases of colorectal cancer globally, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 23·2 (22·7-23·7) per 100 000 person-years that increased by 9·5% (4·5-13·5) between 1990 and 2017. Globally, colorectal cancer accounted for 896 000 (876 300-915 700) deaths in 2017, with an age-standardised death rate of 11·5 (11·3-11·8) per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-13·5% [-18·4 to -10·0]). Colorectal cancer was also responsible for 19·0 million (18·5-19·5) DALYs globally in 2017, with an age-standardised rate of 235·7 (229·7-242·0) DALYs per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-14·5% [-20·4 to -10·3]). Slovakia, the Netherlands, and New Zealand had the highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017. Greenland, Hungary, and Slovakia had the highest age-standardised death rates in 2017. Numbers of incident cases and deaths were higher among males than females up to the ages of 80-84 years, with the highest rates observed in the oldest age group (≥95 years) for both sexes in 2017. There was a non-linear association between the Socio-demographic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index and age-standardised DALY rates. In 2017, the three largest contributors to DALYs at the global level, for both sexes, were diet low in calcium (20·5% [12·9-28·9]), alcohol use (15·2% [12·1-18·3]), and diet low in milk (14·3% [5·1-24·8]).InterpretationThere is substantial global variation in the burden of colorectal cancer. Although the overall colorectal cancer age-standardised death rate has been decreasing at the global level, the increasing age-standardised incidence rate in most countries poses a major public health challenge across the world. The results of this study could be useful for policy makers to carry out cost-effective interventions and to reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors, particularly in countries with high incidence or increasing burden.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:Kidney cancer globally accounts for more than 131,000 deaths each year and has been found to place a large economic burden on society. However, there are no recent articles on the burden of kidney cancer across the world. The aim of this study was to present a status report on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with kidney cancer in 195 countries, from 1990 to 2017. Vital registration and cancer registry data (total of 23,660 site-years) were used to generate the estimates. Mortality was estimated first and the incidence and DALYs were calculated based on the estimated mortality values. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population. The estimated rates were calculated by age, sex and according to the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). In 2017, kidney cancer accounted for 393.0 thousand (95% UI: 371.0-404.6) incident cases, 138.5 thousand (95% UI: 128.7-142.5) deaths and 3.3 million (95% UI: 3.1-3.4) DALYs globally. The global age-standardised rates for the incidence, deaths and DALY were 4.9 (95% UI: 4.7-5.1), 1.7 (95% UI: 1.6-1.8) and 41.1 (95% UI: 38.7-42.5), respectively. Uruguay [15.8 (95% UI: 13.6-19.0)] and Bangladesh [1.5 (95% UI: 1.0-1.8)] had highest and lowest age-standardised incidence rates, respectively. The age-standardised death rates varied substantially from 0.47 (95% UI: 0.34-0.58) in Bangladesh to 5.6 (95% UI: 4.6-6.1) in the Czech Republic. Incidence and mortality rates were higher among males, than females, across all age groups, with the highest rates for both sexes being observed in the 95+ age group. Generally, positive associations were found between each country's age-standardised DALY rate and their corresponding SDI. The considerable burden of kidney cancer was attributable to high body mass index (18.5%) and smoking (16.6%) in both sexes. There are large inter-country differences in the burden of kidney cancer and it is generally higher in countries with a high SDI. The findings from this study provide much needed information for those in each country that are making health-related decisions about priority areas, resource allocation, and the effectiveness of prevention programmes. The results of our study also highlight the need for renewed efforts to reduce exposure to the kidney cancer risk factors and to improve the prevention and the early detection of this disease.

Project description:BackgroundPancreatitis is a critical public health problem, and the burden of pancreatitis is increasing. We report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for pancreatitis at the global, regional, and national levels in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, stratified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsData on pancreatitis were available from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Numbers and age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLDs' rates per 100,000 population were estimated through a systematic analysis of modeled data from the 2017 GBD study. Both acute and chronic pancreatitis are being modeled separately in the GBD 2017; however, our data show acute and chronic pancreatitis together. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsGlobally, in 2017, the age-standardized rates were 76.2 (95% UIs 68.9 to 83.4), 20.6 (19.2 to 22.1), and 4.5 (2.3 to 7.6) per 100,000 population for the point prevalence, incidence, and YLDs, respectively. From 1990 to 2017, the percent changes in the age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate decreased. The global prevalence increased with age up to 60-64 years and 44-49 years in females and males, respectively, and then decreased, with no significant difference between females and males. The global prevalence rate increased with age, peaking in the 95+ age group, with no difference between sexes. Generally, positive correlation between age-standardized YLDs and SDIs at the regional and national levels was observed. Slovakia (297.7 [273.4 to 325.3]), Belgium (274.3 [242.6 to 306.5]), and Poland (266.7 [248.2 to 284.4]) had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates in 2017. Taiwan (Province of China) (104.2% [94.8 to 115.2%]), Maldives (72.4% [66.5 to 79.2%]), and Iceland (64.8% [57.2 to 72.9%]) had the largest increases in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2017.ConclusionsPancreatitis is a major public health issue worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, but the age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 1990 to 2017. Improving the quality of pancreatitis health data in all regions and countries is strongly recommended for better monitoring the burden of pancreatitis.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. METHODS:We modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). FINDINGS:In 2017, there were 6·8 million (95% UI 6·4-7·3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79·5 (75·9-83·5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84·3 (79·2-89·9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0·61 (0·55-0·69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0·51 (0·42-0·54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422·0 [398·7-446·1] per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6·7 [6·3-7·2] per 100 000 population). High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) locations had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate, while low SDI regions had the lowest age-standardised prevalence rate. At the national level, the USA had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (464·5 [438·6-490·9] per 100 000 population), followed by the UK (449·6 [420·6-481·6] per 100 000). Vanuatu had the highest age-standardised death rate in 2017 (1·8 [0·8-3·2] per 100 000 population) and Singapore had the lowest (0·08 [0·06-0·14] per 100 000 population). The total YLDs attributed to IBD almost doubled over the study period, from 0·56 million (0·39-0·77) in 1990 to 1·02 million (0·71-1·38) in 2017. The age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 26·5 (21·0-33·0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 23·2 (19·1-27·8) per 100 000 population in 2017. INTERPRETATION:The prevalence of IBD increased substantially in many regions from 1990 to 2017, which might pose a substantial social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our findings can be useful for policy makers developing strategies to tackle IBD, including the education of specialised personnel to address the burden of this complex disease. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundObesity represents an urgent problem that needs to be properly addressed, especially among children. Public and global health policy- and decision-makers need timely, reliable quantitative information to develop effective interventions aimed at counteracting the burden generated by high body mass index (BMI). Few studies have assessed the high-BMI-related burden on a global scale.Methods and findingsFollowing the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017, the global deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI were analyzed by age, sex, year, and geographical location and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). All causes of death and DALYs estimated in GBD 2017 were organized into 4 hierarchical levels: level 1 contained 3 broad cause groupings, level 2 included more specific categories within the level 1 groupings, level 3 comprised more detailed causes within the level 2 categories, and level 4 included sub-causes of some level 3 causes. From 1990 to 2017, the global deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI have more than doubled for both females and males. However, during the study period, the age-standardized rate of high-BMI-related deaths remained stable for females and only increased by 14.5% for males, and the age-standardized rate of high-BMI-related DALYs only increased by 12.7% for females and 26.8% for males. In 2017, the 6 leading GBD level 3 causes of high-BMI-related DALYs were ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, hypertensive heart disease, and low back pain. For most GBD level 3 causes of high-BMI-related DALYs, high-income North America had the highest attributable proportions of age-standardized DALYs due to high BMI among the 21 GBD regions in both sexes, whereas the lowest attributable proportions were observed in high-income Asia Pacific for females and in eastern sub-Saharan Africa for males. The association between SDI and high-BMI-related DALYs suggested that the lowest age-standardized DALY rates were found in countries in the low-SDI quintile and high-SDI quintile in 2017, and from 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized DALY rates tended to increase in regions with the lowest SDI, but declined in regions with the highest SDI, with the exception of high-income North America. The study's main limitations included the use of information collected from some self-reported data, the employment of cutoff values that may not be adequate for all populations and groups at risk, and the use of a metric that cannot distinguish between lean and fat mass.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that the number of global deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI has substantially increased between 1990 and 2017. Successful population-wide initiatives targeting high BMI may mitigate the burden of a wide range of diseases. Given the large variations in high-BMI-related burden of disease by SDI, future strategies to prevent and reduce the burden should be developed and implemented based on country-specific development status.

Dataset Information

The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

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