Dataset Information

Time-series analysis of ambient PM2.5 and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits in Lima, Peru during 2010-2016.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:There have been no time-series studies of air pollution in Peru. Here we evaluate the effect of ambient PM2.5 on emergency room (ER) visits in Lima. METHODS:We estimated daily PM2.5 levels at a 1?km2 resolution during 2010-2016 using ground measurements, satellite data, and chemical transport model simulations. Population-weighted average daily PM2.5 levels were calculated for each district in Lima (n?=?40), and assigned to patients based on residence. ER visits for respiratory and circulatory diseases were gathered from nine large public hospitals. Poisson regression was used to estimate the rate ratio for daily ER visits with change in daily PM2.5, controlling for meteorology, time trends, and district. RESULTS:For each interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5, respiratory disease ER visits increased 4% (95% CI: 0-5%), stroke visits 10% (3-18%), and ischemic heart disease visits (adults, 18-64 years) 11% (-1, 24%). Districts with higher poverty showed significantly stronger associations of PM2.5 and respiratory disease ER visits than districts with lower poverty. Effects were diminished 24-42% using Lima-wide instead of district-specific PM2.5 levels. CONCLUSIONS:Short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 is associated with increases in ER visits in Lima for respiratory diseases and stroke, and among middle-aged adults, ischemic heart disease.

SUBMITTER: Tapia V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7234897 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-series analysis of ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits in Lima, Peru during 2010-2016.

Tapia V V Steenland K K Sarnat S E SE Vu B B Liu Y Y Sánchez-Ccoyllo O O Vasquez V V Gonzales G F GF

Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology 20191119 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>There have been no time-series studies of air pollution in Peru. Here we evaluate the effect of ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> on emergency room (ER) visits in Lima.<h4>Methods</h4>We estimated daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels at a 1 km<sup>2</sup> resolution during 2010-2016 using ground measurements, satellite data, and chemical transport model simulations. Population-weighted average daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels were calculated for each district in Lima (n = 40), and assigned to ...[more]

PMID: 31745179

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Project description:BackgroundAsthma affects millions of people worldwide. Lima, Peru is one of the most polluted cities in the Americas but has insufficient ground PM2.5 (particulate matter that are 2.5 μm or less in diameter) measurements to conduct epidemiologic studies regarding air pollution. PM2.5 estimates from a satellite-driven model have recently been made, enabling a study between asthma and PM2.5.ObjectiveWe conducted a daily time-series analysis to determine the association between asthma emergency department (ED) visits and estimated ambient PM2.5 levels in Lima, Peru from 2010 to 2016.MethodsWe used Poisson generalized linear models to regress aggregated counts of asthma on district-level population weighted PM2.5. Indicator variables for hospitals, districts, and day of week were included to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation while assessing same day, previous day, day before previous and average across all 3-day exposures. We also included temperature and humidity to account for meteorology and used dichotomous percent poverty and gender variables to assess effect modification.ResultsThere were 103,974 cases of asthma ED visits during the study period across 39 districts in Lima. We found a 3.7% (95% CI: 1.7%-5.8%) increase in ED visits for every interquartile range (IQR, 6.02 μg/m3) increase in PM2.5 same day exposure with no age stratification. For the 0-18 years age group, we found a 4.5% (95% CI: 2.2%-6.8%) increase in ED visits for every IQR increase in PM2.5 same day exposure. For the 19-64 years age group, we found a 6.0% (95% CI: 1.0%-11.0%) increase in ED visits for every IQR in average 3-day exposure. For the 65 years and up age group, we found a 16.0% (95% CI: 7.0%-24.0%) decrease in ED visits for every IQR increase in PM2.5 average 3-day exposure, although the number of visits in this age group was low (4,488). We found no effect modification by SES or gender.DiscussionResults from this study provide additional literature on use of satellite-driven exposure estimates in time-series analyses and evidence for the association between PM2.5 and asthma in a low- and middle-income (LMIC) country.

Project description:It is well recognized that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affects health adversely, yet few studies from South America have documented such associations due to the sparsity of PM2.5 measurements. Lima's topography and aging vehicular fleet results in severe air pollution with limited amounts of monitors to effectively quantify PM2.5 levels for epidemiologic studies. We developed an advanced machine learning model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at a 1 km2 spatial resolution in Lima, Peru from 2010 to 2016. We combined aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and land use variables to fit a random forest model against ground measurements from 16 monitoring stations. Overall cross-validation R2 (and root mean square prediction error, RMSE) for the random forest model was 0.70 (5.97 μg/m3). Mean PM2.5 for ground measurements was 24.7 μg/m3 while mean estimated PM2.5 was 24.9 μg/m3 in the cross-validation dataset. The mean difference between ground and predicted measurements was -0.09 μg/m3 (Std.Dev. = 5.97 μg/m3), with 94.5% of observations falling within 2 standard deviations of the difference indicating good agreement between ground measurements and predicted estimates. Surface downwards solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and AOD were the most important predictors, while percent urbanization, albedo, and cloud fraction were the least important predictors. Comparison of monthly mean measurements between ground and predicted PM2.5 shows good precision and accuracy from our model. Furthermore, mean annual maps of PM2.5 show consistent lower concentrations in the coast and higher concentrations in the mountains, resulting from prevailing coastal winds blown from the Pacific Ocean in the west. Our model allows for construction of long-term historical daily PM2.5 measurements at 1 km2 spatial resolution to support future epidemiological studies.

Project description:BackgroundEmissions control programs targeting certain air pollution sources may alter PM2.5 composition, as well as the risk of adverse health outcomes associated with PM2.5.ObjectivesWe examined temporal changes in the risk of emergency department (ED) visits for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and asthma associated with short-term increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Los Angeles, California.MethodsPoisson log-linear models with unconstrained distributed exposure lags were used to estimate the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with short-term increases in daily PM2.5 concentrations, controlling for temporal and meteorological confounders. The models were run separately for three predefined time periods, which were selected based on the implementation of multiple emissions control programs (EARLY: 2005-2008; MIDDLE: 2009-2012; LATE: 2013-2016). Two-pollutant models with individual PM2.5 components and the remaining PM2.5 mass were also considered to assess the influence of changes in PM2.5 composition on changes in the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with PM2.5 over time.ResultsThe relative risk of CVD ED visits associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in 4-day PM2.5 concentration (lag 0-3) was higher in the LATE period (rate ratio = 1.020, 95% confidence interval = [1.010, 1.030]) compared to the EARLY period (1.003, [0.996, 1.010]). In contrast, for asthma, relative risk estimates were largest in the EARLY period (1.018, [1.006, 1.029]), but smaller in the following periods. Similar temporal differences in relative risk estimates for CVD and asthma were observed among different age and season groups. No single component was identified as an obvious contributor to the changing risk estimates over time, and some components exhibited different temporal patterns in risk estimates from PM2.5 total mass, such as a decreased risk of CVD ED visits associated with sulfate over time.ConclusionsTemporal changes in the risk of CVD and asthma ED visits associated with short-term increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations were observed. These changes could be related to changes in PM2.5 composition (e.g., an increasing fraction of organic carbon and a decreasing fraction of sulfate in PM2.5). Other factors such as improvements in healthcare and differential exposure misclassification might also contribute to the changes.

Project description:Elevated levels of ambient air pollution has been implicated as a major risk factor for morbidities and premature mortality in India, with particularly high concentrations of particulate matter in the Indo-Gangetic plain. High resolution spatiotemporal estimates of such exposures are critical to assess health effects at an individual level. This article retrospectively assesses daily average PM2.5 exposure at 1 km × 1 km grids in Delhi, India from 2010-2016, using multiple data sources and ensemble averaging approaches. We used a multi-stage modeling exercise involving satellite data, land use variables, reanalysis based meteorological variables and population density. A calibration regression was used to model PM2.5: PM10 to counter the sparsity of ground monitoring data. The relationship between PM2.5 and its spatiotemporal predictors was modeled using six learners; generalized additive models, elastic net, support vector regressions, random forests, neural networks and extreme gradient boosting. Subsequently, these predictions were combined under a generalized additive model framework using a tensor product based spatial smoothing. Overall cross-validated prediction accuracy of the model was 80% over the study period with high spatial model accuracy and predicted annual average concentrations ranging from 87 to 138 μg/m3. Annual average root mean squared errors for the ensemble averaged predictions were in the range 39.7-62.7 μg/m3 with prediction bias ranging between 4.6-11.2 μg/m3. In addition, tree based learners such as random forests and extreme gradient boosting outperformed other algorithms. Our findings indicate important seasonal and geographical differences in particulate matter concentrations within Delhi over a significant period of time, with meteorological and land use features that discriminate most and least polluted regions. This exposure assessment can be used to estimate dose response relationships more accurately over a wide range of particulate matter concentrations.

Dataset Information

Time-series analysis of ambient PM2.5 and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits in Lima, Peru during 2010-2016.

Publications

Time-series analysis of ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> and cardiorespiratory emergency room visits in Lima, Peru during 2010-2016.

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