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Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Macroeconomic indicators, notably unemployment, are significant moderators of suicide. We projected the number of excess suicides in Canada as a consequence of the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment. Annual suicide mortality (2000-2018) and unemployment (2000-2019) data were derived from Statistics Canada. Time-trend regression models were used to evaluate and predict the number of excess suicides in 2020 and 2021 for two possible projection scenarios following the COVID-19 pandemic: 1) an increase in unemployment of 1.6% in 2020, 1.2% in 2021, or 2) an increase in unemployment of 10.7% in 2020, 8.9% in 2021. A percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 1.0% increase in suicide between 2000 and 2018. In the first scenario, the rise in unemployment rates resulted in a projected total of 418 excess suicides in 2020-2021 (suicide rate per 100,000: 11.6 in 2020). In the second scenario, the projected suicide rates per 100,000 increased to 14.0 in 2020 and 13.6 in 2021, resulting in 2114 excess suicides in 2020-2021. These results indicate that suicide prevention in the context of COVID-19-related unemployment is a critical priority. Furthermore, timely access to mental healthcare, financial provisions and social/labour support programs, as well as optimal treatment for mental disorders is urgently needed.

SUBMITTER: McIntyre RS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7236718 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19.

McIntyre Roger S RS Lee Yena Y

Psychiatry research 20200519

Macroeconomic indicators, notably unemployment, are significant moderators of suicide. We projected the number of excess suicides in Canada as a consequence of the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment. Annual suicide mortality (2000-2018) and unemployment (2000-2019) data were derived from Statistics Canada. Time-trend regression models were used to evaluate and predict the number of excess suicides in 2020 and 2021 for two possible projection scenarios following the COVID-19 pandemic: 1) an incre ...[more]

PMID: 32460184

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Project description:BackgroundSignificant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms.Methodology/principal findingsWe used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species.Conclusion/significanceWhile models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.

Dataset Information

Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19.

Publications

Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19.

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