Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Achebak H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7239891 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain.
Achebak Hicham H Devolder Daniel D Ingole Vijendra V Ballester Joan J
Nature communications 20200520 1
A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980-2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundThis study sought to analyse the trend in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in Spain among the population aged ≥35 years across the period 1990-2018.MethodsSAM was estimated by applying a prevalence-independent method, which uses lung cancer (LC) mortality as a proxy of tobacco consumption. We sourced observed mortality from the National Institute of Statistics (Spain), LC mortality rates in smokers and never smokers from the Cancer Prevention Study I-II, and relative risks from 5 US cohorts. Estimates of annual SAM by cause of death, sex and age are shown, along with crude and annual standardised SAM rates. The trend in standardised all-cause and LC rates was analysed using a joinpoint regression model.ResultsTobacco caused 1 717 150 deaths in Spain in the period 1990-2018. Among men, cancers replaced cardiovascular diseases-diabetes mellitus (CVD-DM) as the leading group of tobacco-related cause of death in 1994. Among women, CVD-DM remained the leading cause of death throughout the period. Trend analysis of standardised SAM rates due to all causes and LC showed a decrease in men and an increase in women.ConclusionsThe tobacco epidemic in Spain across the period 1990-2018 has had an important impact on mortality and has evolved differently in both genders. SAM is expected to increase dramatically in women in the coming years. SAM data highlight the importance of including a gender perspective in SAM analyses, in designing more effective and comprehensive public health interventions and in developing gender-specific tobacco control policies to curb tobacco consumption.
| S-EPMC9713395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeveral studies have investigated the associations between temperature variability (TV) and death counts. However, evidence of TV-attributable years of life lost (YLL) is scarce.ObjectivesTo investigate the associations between TV and YLL rates (/100,000 population), and quantify average life loss per death (LLD) caused by TV in China.MethodsWe calculated daily YLL rates (/100,000 population) of non-accidental causes and cardiorespiratory diseases by using death data from 364 counties of China during 2006-2017, and collected meteorological data during the same period. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis were used to estimate the effects of TV at national or regional levels. Then, we calculated the LLD to quantify the mortality burden of TV.ResultsU-shaped curves were observed in the associations of YLL rates with TV in China. The minimum YLL TV (MYTV) was 2.5 °C nationwide. An average of 0.89 LLD was attributable to TV in total, most of which was from high TV (0.86, 95% CI: 0.56, 1.16). However, TV caused more LLD in the young (<65 years old) (1.87, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.71) than 65-74 years old (0.85, 95% CI: 0.40-1.31) and ≥75 years old (0.40, 95% CI: 0.21-0.59), cerebrovascular disease (0.74, 95% CI: 0.36, 1.11) than respiratory disease (0.54, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.87), South (1.23, 95% CI: 0.77, 1.68) than North (0.41, 95% CI: -0.7, 1.52) and Central China (0.40, 95% CI: -0.02, 0.81). TV-attributed LLD was modified by annual mean temperature, annual mean relative humidity, altitude, latitude, longitude, and education attainment.SignificanceOur findings indicate that high and low TVs are both associated with increases in premature death, however the majority of LLD was attributable to high TV. TV-related LLD was modified by county level characteristics. TV should be considered in planning adaptation to climate change or variability.Impact(1) We estimated the associations of TV with YLL rates, and quantified the life loss per death (LLD) caused by TV. (2) An average of 0.89 years of LLD were attributable to TV, most of which were from high TVs. (3) TV caused more LLD in the young, cerebrovascular disease, and southern China. (4) The mortality burdens were modified by county level characteristics.
| S-EPMC8944404 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Few studies have been carried out to systematically screen regional temperature-sensitive diseases. This study was aimed at systematically and comprehensively screening both high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases by using mortality data from 17 study sites in China located in temperate and subtropical climate zones. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the association between extreme temperature and mortality to screen temperature-sensitive diseases from 18 kinds of diseases of eight disease systems. The attributable fractions (AFs) of sensitive diseases were calculated to assess the mortality burden attributable to high and low temperatures. A total of 1,380,713 records of all-cause deaths were involved. The results indicate that injuries, nervous, circulatory and respiratory diseases are sensitive to heat, with the attributable fraction accounting for 6.5%, 4.2%, 3.9% and 1.85%, respectively. Respiratory and circulatory diseases are sensitive to cold temperature, with the attributable fraction accounting for 13.3% and 11.8%, respectively. Most of the high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases seem to have higher relative risk in study sites located in subtropical zones than in temperate zones. However, the attributable fractions for mortality of heat-related injuries were higher in temperate zones. The results of this research provide epidemiological evidence of the relative burden of mortality across two climate zones in China.
| S-EPMC6982219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:There are significant associations between ambient temperature and respiratory disease mortality. However, few studies have assessed the morbidity burdens of various respiratory diseases that are attributable to different temperature ranges in subtropical regions. METHODS:Daily outpatient visits, weather variables, and air pollution data were collected from January 2013 to August 2017 in a hospital in Dongguan city. A standard time series quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to estimate the associations between daily mean temperature and morbidity for total respiratory diseases, bronchiectasis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and asthma. Attributable fractions were then calculated to quantify disease burden relative to different temperature components. Finally, we conducted stratified analysis by age group. RESULTS:Both low and high temperatures were associated with an increased risk of morbidity secondary to respiratory diseases. Compared with the optimum temperature, the accumulated relative risk (RR) during the seven lag days was 1.13 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.01-1.26 for extreme heat and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99-1.05) for extreme cold. Heat-related respiratory morbidity risk was higher than cold-related risk for the total population, but an opposite result was observed for the elderly. About 8.4% (95% CI: 2.8-13.3%) of respiratory morbidity was attributable to non-optimal temperatures, and moderate heat was responsible for most of the excess respiratory morbidity (7.5, 95% CI: 2.4-12.2%). CONCLUSIONS:We found that exposure to non-optimal temperatures increased the risk of respiratory morbidity in subtropical region, and moderate heat contributed to most of the temperature-related respiratory morbidities. This indicates a need for further examination of moderate, rather than extreme, heat in subtropical region.
| S-EPMC6814053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure variable was the daily mean temperature from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis. The association was estimated from a two-stage time series analysis method. We also calculated deaths attributable to heat and cold. The pooled exposure-response curve presented a J-shaped format. The exposure to extreme heat increased the risk of mortality by 27% (95% CI: 15-39%), while the exposure to extreme cold increased the risk of mortality by 16% (95% CI: 8-24%). The heterogeneity between cities was explained by city-specific mean temperature and temperature range. The fractions of deaths attributable to cold and heat were 4.7% (95% CI: 2.94-6.17%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.45-3.95%), respectively. Our results show a significant impact of non-optimal temperature on the respiratory health of elderlies living in Brazil. It may support proactive action implementation in cities that have critical temperature variations.
| S-EPMC8197018 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to estimate respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures and to estimate the future hospitalization costs in Australia. The associations between daily hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases and temperatures in Sydney and Perth over the study period of 2010-2016 were analyzed using distributed non-linear lag models. Future hospitalization costs were estimated based on three predicted climate change scenarios-RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The estimated respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures increased from 493.2 million Australian dollars (AUD) in the 2010s to more than AUD 700 million in 2050s in Sydney and from AUD 98.0 million to about AUD 150 million in Perth. The current cold attributable fraction in Sydney (23.7%) and Perth (11.2%) is estimated to decline by the middle of this century to (18.1-20.1%) and (5.1-6.6%), respectively, while the heat-attributable fraction for respiratory disease is expected to gradually increase from 2.6% up to 5.5% in Perth. Limitations of this study should be noted, such as lacking information on individual-level exposures, local air pollution levels, and other behavioral risks, which is common in such ecological studies. Nonetheless, this study found both cold and hot temperatures increased the overall hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases, although the attributable fractions varied. The largest contributor was cold temperatures. While respiratory disease hospitalization costs will increase in the future, climate change may result in a decrease in the cold attributable fraction and an increase in the heat attributable fraction, depending on the location.
| S-EPMC9368165 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposePrevious studies assessing impact of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) on mortality have shown conflicting results. We sought to assess the independent association of ARDS with in-hospital mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis.MethodsWe studied two prospective sepsis cohorts drawn from the Early Assessment of Renal and Lung Injury (EARLI; n = 474) and Validating Acute Lung Injury markers for Diagnosis (VALID; n = 337) cohorts. ARDS was defined by Berlin criteria. We used logistic regression to compare in-hospital mortality in patients with and without ARDS, controlling for baseline severity of illness. We also estimated attributable mortality, adjusted for illness severity by stratification.ResultsARDS occurred in 195 EARLI patients (41%) and 99 VALID patients (29%). ARDS was independently associated with risk of hospital death in multivariate analysis, even after controlling for severity of illness, as measured by APACHE II (odds ratio [OR] 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 2.67), p = 0.04 in EARLI; OR 2.12 (CI 1.16, 3.92), p = 0.02 in VALID). Patients with severe ARDS (P/F < 100) primarily drove this relationship. The attributable mortality of ARDS was 27% (CI 14%, 37%) in EARLI and 37% (CI 10%, 51%) in VALID. ARDS was independently associated with ICU mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, and ventilator-free days.ConclusionsDevelopment of ARDS among ICU patients with sepsis confers increased risk of ICU and in-hospital mortality in addition to other important outcomes. Clinical trials targeting patients with severe ARDS will be best poised to detect measurable differences in these outcomes.
| S-EPMC7224051 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.MethodsWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FindingsWe analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality.InterpretationMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FundingUK Medical Research Council.
| S-EPMC4521077 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:First study of social inequalities in tobacco-attributable mortality (TAM) in Spain considering the joint influence of sex, age, and education (intersectional perspective). METHODS:Data on all deaths due to cancer, cardiometabolic and respiratory diseases among people aged ?35 years in 2016 were obtained from the Spanish Statistical Office. TAM was calculated based on sex-, age- and education-specific smoking prevalence, and on sex-, age- and disease-specific relative risks of death for former and current smokers vs lifetime non-smokers. As inequality measures, the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated using Poisson regression. The RII is interpreted as the relative risk of mortality between the lowest and the highest educational level, and the SII as the absolute difference in mortality. RESULTS:The crude TAM rate was 55 and 334 per 100,000 in women and men, respectively. Half of these deaths occurred among people with the lowest educational level (27% of the population). The RII for total mortality was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.35-0.42) in women and 1.61 (95%CI: 1.55-1.67) in men. The SII was -41 and 111 deaths per 100,000, respectively. Less-educated women aged <55 years and men (all ages) showed an increased mortality risk; nonetheless, less educated women aged ?55 had a reduced risk. CONCLUSIONS:TAM is inversely associated with educational level in men and younger women, and directly associated with education in older women. This could be explained by different smoking patterns. Appropriate tobacco control policies should aim to reduce social inequalities in TAM.
| S-EPMC7521746 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEnteric infections cause significant deaths, and global projection studies suggest that mortality from enteric infections will increase in the future with warmer climate. However, a major limitation of these projection studies is the use of risk estimates derived from nonmortality data to project excess enteric infection mortality associated with temperature because of the lack of studies that used actual deaths.ObjectiveWe quantified the associations of daily temperature with both mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in the Philippines. These associations were applied to projections under various climate and population change scenarios.MethodsWe modeled nonlinear temperature associations of mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in 17 administrative regions of the Philippines using a two-stage time-series approach. First, we quantified nonlinear temperature associations of enteric infections by fitting generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models. Second, we combined regional estimates using a meta-regression model. We projected the excess future enteric infections due to nonoptimal temperatures using regional temperature-enteric infection associations under various combinations of climate change scenarios according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and population change scenarios according to shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for 2010-2099.ResultsRegional estimates for mortality and hospital admissions were significantly heterogeneous and had varying shapes in association with temperature. Generally, mortality risks were greater in high temperatures, whereas hospital admission risks were greater in low temperatures. Temperature-attributable excess deaths in 2090-2099 were projected to increase over 2010-2019 by as little as 1.3% [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -3.1%, 6.5%] under a low greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 2.6) or as much as 25.5% (95% eCI: -3.5%, 48.2%) under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). A moderate increase was projected for temperature-attributable excess hospital admissions, from 0.02% (95% eCI: -2.0%, 1.9%) under RCP 2.6 to 5.2% (95% eCI: -12.7%, 21.8%) under RCP 8.5 in the same period. High temperature-attributable deaths and hospital admissions due to enteric infections may occur under scenarios with high population growth in 2090-2099.DiscussionIn the Philippines, futures with hotter temperatures and high population growth may lead to a greater increase in temperature-related excess deaths than hospital admissions due to enteric infections. Our results highlight the need to strengthen existing primary health care interventions for diarrhea and support health adaptation policies to help reduce future enteric infections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9324.
| S-EPMC8860302 | biostudies-literature