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Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

ABSTRACT: We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 Wm-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 Wm-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per Wm-2 - about 20 % lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

SUBMITTER: Stjern CW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7241673 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

Stjern Camilla Weum CW Samset Bjørn Hallvard BH Myhre Gunnar G Forster Piers M PM Hodnebrog Øivind Ø Andrews Timothy T Boucher Olivier O Faluvegi Gregory G Iversen Trond T Kasoar Matthew M Kharin Viatcheslav V Kirkevåg Alf A Lamarque Jean-François JF Olivié Dirk D Richardson Thomas T Shawki Dilshad D Shindell Drew D Smith Christopher J CJ Takemura Toshihiko T Voulgarakis Apostolos A

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR 20171010 Iss 21

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm<sup>-2</sup>, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (med ...[more]

PMID: 32441705

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Project description:Black carbon (BC) is a descriptive term that refers to light-absorbing particulate matter (PM) produced by incomplete combustion and is often used as a surrogate for traffic-related air pollution. Exposure to BC has been linked to adverse health effects. Penetration of ambient BC is typically the primary source of indoor BC in the developed world. Other sources of indoor BC include biomass and kerosene stoves, lit candles, and charring food during cooking. Home characteristics can influence the levels of indoor BC. As people spend most of their time indoors, human exposure to BC can be associated to a large extent with indoor environments. At the same time, due to the cost of environmental monitoring, it is often not feasible to directly measure BC inside multiple individual homes in large-scale population-based studies. Thus, a predictive model for indoor BC is needed to support risk assessment in public health. In this study, home characteristics and occupant activities that potentially modify indoor levels of BC were documented in 23 homes, and indoor and outdoor BC concentrations were measured twice. The homes were located in the Cincinnati-Kentucky-Indiana tristate region and measurements occurred from September 2015 through August 2017. A linear mixed-effect model was developed to predict BC concentration in residential environments. The measured outdoor BC concentrations and the documented home characteristics were utilized as predictors of indoor BC concentrations. After the model was developed, a leave-one-out cross-validation algorithm was deployed to assess the predictive accuracy of the output. The following home characteristics and occupant activities significantly modified the concentration of indoor BC: outdoor BC, lit candles and electrostatic or high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters in heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Predicted indoor BC concentrations explained 78% of the variability in the measured indoor BC concentrations. The data show that outdoor BC combined with home characteristics can be used to predict indoor BC levels with reasonable accuracy.

Project description:ObjectivesDaily driving of diesel-powered tractors has been linked to increased lung cancer risk in farmers, yet few studies have quantified exposure levels to diesel exhaust during tractor driving or during other farm activities. We expanded an earlier task-based descriptive investigation of factors associated with real-time exposure levels to black carbon (BC, a surrogate of diesel exhaust) in Iowa farmers by increasing the sample size, collecting repeated measurements, and applying statistical models adapted to continuous measurements.MethodsThe expanded study added 43 days of sampling, for a total of 63 sample days conducted in 2015 and 2016 on 31 Iowa farmers. Real-time, continuous monitoring (30-s intervals) of personal BC concentrations was performed using a MicroAeth AE51 microaethelometer affixed with a micro-cyclone. A field researcher recorded information on tasks, fuel type, farmer location, and proximity to burning biomass. We evaluated the influence of these variables on log-transformed BC concentrations using a linear mixed-effect model with random effects for farmer and day and a first-order autoregressive structure for within-day correlation.ResultsProximity to diesel-powered equipment was observed for 42.5% of the overall sampling time and on 61 of the 63 sample days. Predicted geometric mean BC concentrations were highest during grain bin work, loading, and harvesting, and lower for soil preparation and planting. A 68% increase in BC concentrations was predicted for close proximity to a diesel-powered vehicle, relative to far proximity, while BC concentrations were 44% higher in diesel vehicles with open cabins compared with closed cabins. Task, farmer location, fuel type, and proximity to burning biomass explained 8% of within-day variance in BC concentrations, 2% of between-day variance, and no between-farmer variance.ConclusionOur findings showed that farmers worked frequently near diesel equipment and that BC concentrations varied between tasks and by fuel type, farmer location, and proximity to burning biomass. These results could support the development of exposure models applicable to investigations of health effects in farmers associated with exposure to diesel engine exhaust.

Project description:BackgroundSevere changes in temperature can affect the behavior and ecology of some infectious agents. Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan that causes Chagas disease. This parasite has high genetic variability and can be divided into six discrete typing units (DTUs). Trypanosoma cruzi also has a complex life-cycle, which includes the process of metacyclogenesis when non-infective epimastigote forms are differentiated into infective metacyclic trypomastigotes (MT). Studies in triatomines have shown that changes in temperature also affect the number and viability of MT.MethodsThe objective of this study was to evaluate how temperature affects the transcriptional profiles of T. cruzi I and II (TcI and TcII) MT by exposing parasites to two temperatures (27 °C and 28 °C) and comparing those to normal culture conditions at 26 °C. Subsequently, RNA-seq was conducted and differentially expressed genes were quantified and associated to metabolic pathways.ResultsA statistically significant difference was observed in the number of MT between the temperatures evaluated and the control, TcII DTU was not strongly affected to exposure to high temperatures compared to TcI. Similar results were found when we analyzed gene expression in this DTU, with the greatest number of differentially expressed genes being observed at 28 °C, which could indicate a dysregulation of different signaling pathways under this temperature. Chromosome analysis indicated that chromosome 1 harbored the highest number of changes for both DTUs for all thermal treatments. Finally, gene ontology (GO) analyses showed a decrease in the coding RNAs involved in the regulation of processes related to the metabolism of lipids and carbohydrates, the evasion of oxidative stress, and proteolysis and phosphorylation processes, and a decrease in RNAs coding to ribosomal proteins in TcI and TcII, along with an increase in the expression of surface metalloprotease GP63 in TcII.ConclusionsSlight temperature shifts lead to increased cell death of metacyclic trypomastigotes because of the deregulation of gene expression of different processes essential for the TcI and TcII DTUs of T. cruzi.

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Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

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Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

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